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Wednesday January 20, 2010 - 15:01:22 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Euro mash and China teetering…

Key News & Comments
Greek government bonds tumbled, led by two-year notes, after European Commission President Jose Barroso said the region’s economy is at a “delicate moment.” (Bloomberg)
Note: Below is a Greek vs. German Bund 10-yr bond spread chart we showed you in Monday’s Currency Currents; we were expecting the euro to follow…it has and is being punished this morning. [Chart not available in text format.]
The China Banking Regulatory Commission said it hasn't "specifically" told banks to suspend lending in January, but a report that it had asked several banks to stop issuing loans helped to send equity markets tumbling. (WSJ)
Note: Below is the chart of China’s Shanghai index; we showed this chart in Currency Currents last Thursday and said…a divergence was building…bada bing, bada boom… [Chart not available in text format.]

…this is a divergence that seemed to be validated by the fact the Aussie (a Chinese satellite country) couldn’t make a new high on very good economic news lately… [Chart not available in text format.]

Japan supports sending a "collective message" to China at a G7 meeting next month to allow more flexibility in the yuan, a government official said on Wednesday. (Reuters)
 
Let’s look at what the euro has done against the US dollar compared to what the Chinese currency has done since the last dollar bear market began.  Below is a percent change chart with the starting date June 1, 2002.  As you can see, the euro (purple) has gained 54% since that time; while the juggernaut of global growth from China—the yuan—has moved about 0% since that time.  Thus, the euro has appreciated about 54% against the Chinese currency too.  
 
This is what we call a “euro mash.” Europe is getting squeezed on the currency front by two of its largest trade competitors—the US and China. Ouch! I hope Mr. Sarkozy doesn’t see this chart. [Chart not available in text format.]

Black Swan Events:
Today, 4:30 p.m. ET: Live webinar courtesy of the International Securities Exchange; Black Swan will present on the topic of: Intermarket Relationships and Why It Matters to Currency Investors; please click here is you wish to attend.  

Friday January 22nd: Black Swan Capital Presentation at the 2010 World Outlook Conference, Vancouver. The topic of the talk: The US$ Holds the Key. If you wish to learn more about the World Outlook Conference click here.
 
Quotable 
“The UK recovery is likely to be sub-par, but it would be unwise to write off the prospects for a stronger recovery. However, assuming a sub-par recovery, monetary policy tightening is unlikely before the end of 2010.  What happens to monetary policy will also be substantially affected by what happens to the fiscal outlook (with the election a major complicating factor). On fiscal policy, we continue to think that more needs to be done than on the existing government's plans. Debt issuance will remain enormous in 2010-11, and without Bank of England buying there will be a shift in the balance of supply and demand. However, we think that demand worries are overdone and that worries about UK solvency remain significantly overdone. However, the (albeit weak) economic recovery will ultimately ensure higher bond yields. The prospect of higher bond yields is the main reason why we remain cautious on UK equities.”
Morgan Stanley Economic Forum

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com 
-----------------------
David Newman here ...I want to share some information about two of our subscription- based services—Currency Investor and PositionTrader FX—we’d like you to become a Member today…
 
Currency Investor: 2010 Forecast Issue is now available …  20+ pages of analysis and charts covering the major and emerging market currency world—key themes and targets. 
 
In our forecast issue, Jack and JR built the definitive case for a multi-year bull market in the dollar.  You won’t want to miss this Issue especially now that the dollar is starting to rocket.  
 
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---------
Members of PositionTrader FX are reaping some excellent gains from their existing positions; as they should.  
 
We’ve been attacking the euro for a while now, as you know, and riding strength on the other side…it’s paying off big time.  Take a look at the open profits as of this morning among 8 open positions in our service (5 emerging/developing market currencies and three majors in the portfolio; 7 winners and one loser):
 
Open PIP profit in Emerging Market Currency Positions = +685 PIPs
 
Open PIP profit in Major and Major Cross-rates = + 669 PIPs
 
Total PIPs Open Profit = +1,342 
 
As of 8:30 a.m. ET 1/20/10; based on one lot, or contract, per open position; entry price based on market when recommendation was received by our Members; or at stop-in entry price. 
 
If that type of profit potential--reality-based profit--makes sense to you, then I think you will like our PositionTrader FX.
 
Some open trades we’ve held for weeks, others for one day.  We target major FX pairs, key cross-rates, and emerging market currencies. Members also receive market updates, price analysis, and position follow-ups to make sure they’re tuned into our every move.  We assist them throughout the trade with information and stop-loss adjustments.  
 
Click here to give it a try.
 
Please shoot me an email if you have any questions about PositionTrader FX or about signing up and becoming one of our valued Members.  
 
Thank you.  
 
David Newman
Director of Sales & Marketing
dnewman@blackswantrading.com
 
P.S. As always, this newsletter comes with our 30-day money back guarantee if you determine for any reason it’s not right for you. 

 

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