Tuesday March 1, 2005 - 00:58:58 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 1st March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.3235 ... 1.3261 ... 1.3290 ... 1.3312
Support....: 1.3182 ... 1.3144 ... 1.3109 ... 1.3080
The current decline should return back to the 1.3144 area before higher again
Price failed to reach the 1.3290-1.3308 target and stalled at just above the prior 1.3273 peak. This should imply that we should wait for any further upside to develop until we see a retest of the 1.3144 area. Thus we feel a test of 1.3140-50 should provide a good buying opportunity with stops below 1.3110. Only an earlier direct break above 1.3235 and 1.3261 would trigger gains that should then move to the 1.3290-1.3315 resistance area at least with next resistance in the 1.3354-86 area.
With price having stalled at 1.3278 and the loss of 1.3227 we feel the initial direction should be lower to 1.3182 where we expect a small pullback before losses back to the 1.3144 area. We should allow for 1.3109 within this. However, we feel this should form a base and thus only a break of the 1.3080-1.3110 area would accelerate losses further towards 1.3060-80. Next major support is then at the 1.2957 corrective low.
Elliott Wave Comments:
28th February 2005
The decline on Friday stalled at 1.3145 and this either formed Wave -i- of a decline or the expected Wave x. We tend to suspect the latter and should imply one last ABC pattern higher to complete a Triple Three and from that peak we would expect a larger reversal. With cycles looking to find a peak by the end of this week we feel that we need focus attention on the pivot resistance at 1.3386 and a 76.4% retracement of the 1.3666-1.2730 decline which rests at 1.3445.
Only an earlier break below 1.3145 and the 1.3080-90 pivot support would imply a sharp loss to the last Wave b low at 1.2957 which should hold for a while being within a large congestion area in the initial decline from 1.3666.
1st March 2005
With the marginal new high at 1.3278 it negates the possible Wave -i- count at 1.3144 and now suggests a possible flat correction from 1.3273. Thus the current decline should stall in the 1.3110-44 area once again from where we would expect to see development of a final ABC pattern higher to the 1.3355-86 area. Again, as stated yesterday, any break below 1.3110 and 1.3080 would cause a strong decelin to the prior Wave b at 1.2957.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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