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Thursday January 21, 2010 - 03:38:35 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 21-Jan-2010 - 0335 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US equities fell yesterday on concerns that China's monetary tightening measures may stall economic recovery. World Bank has shown concerns of Asia's risk asset bubble caused by surging growth in Asian economies. The Dow (10603.15) and the Nasdaq (2291.25) closed over 1% lower yesterday after falling nearly 2% intra-day.

The Asian indices are trading lower today. Among major indices, only the Nikkei (10776.99) is in the green. The Shanghai (3128.38) which fell 3% yesterday is down further 1% today. Shanghai seems to be nearing the end of the wedge on the weekly candles. A resolution of the wedge is likely to determine the direction going forward. The Sensex (17474.49) ended flat yesterday after trading higher for most of the day. It may dip today on global cues.


COMMODITIES
Crude (77.66) fell sharply and closed below 78 yesterday. The Credit policy tightening in China, stronger dollar and expected decline in demand because of the easing cold weather pulled down the price. Support is seen in 76.50-25 region which might be tested if it continues to trade below 78. The US Crude inventory data is due today. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1114.00) fell shaply breaking below 1120 yesterday. The dollar which strenghtend to a five month high against Euro pulled down the Commodity's price. As mentioned earlier 1100-1090 is the significant Support region below 1120 which we might expect to hold as the broader outlook remains bullish.


CURRENCIES
Further sharp decline in the Euro (1.4087) to a low near 1.4065 so far today. Test of 1.3945 possible. The Aussie (0.9105) has also declined to a low near 0.9071 in the US session, but might find some Support at 0.9050. All this weakening in the "high yielders" is despite the Yen (91.45) weakening further today, as compared to 90.31 seen on Tuesday. Concerns about China restricting bank lending and insipid Housing Starts data from the USA yesterday seem to be weighing on the markets. Whether these are mere "fears" or not is immaterial because they are inflicting damage on trading positions in the near term.

The Pound (1.6255) continues to fall on profit-taking after having hit a high of 1.6460 on Tuesday. It can dip further towards 1.6200-6150. Dollar-Swiss (1.0458) has surged following the Euro's decline and may well test the Dec-09 high of 1.05 before dipping back again.

The Asians had weakened quite a bit yesterday, and are looking mixed. The USD-SGD (1.4006) has resistance at 1.4030 while the Korean Won (1137.50) might weaken further towards 1150. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 45.93 yesterday and has chances of rising further towards 46.00-20.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries fell for maturities over 5Y as the investors have once again started looking for a safe haven on concerns that sharp growth in China has created a lot of asset bubbles on the way. The yields on 2Y and 10Y Treasuries were quoted 1 and 4 bps lower near 0.88% and 3.66% respectively.

DATA TODAY
15:00 GMT Dec US Philifed Index
...Expected 18.2...Previous 20.4


DATA YESTERDAY
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold

UK Unemp
...Actual 7.8%...Previous 7.9%

CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.6%...Previous 1.5%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/cacpi.shtml

US Dec Core PPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 1.8%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usppi.shtml

US Dec Housing Starts
...Actual 0.56 Mln...Previous 0.58 Mln
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ushsgstarts.shtml

 

 

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