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Thursday January 21, 2010 - 10:05:13 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 21,
Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales
Traders anticipate the publication of the UK Retail Sales on Friday
(January 22). It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based
on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK. It is an
important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer
confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a
lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts predict a change in the future reading to 1.30% versus a previous
reading of -0.30%.
broke yesterdayâ€™s support 1.4185, and successfully reached the suggested target
for this break 1.4103. With approaching 1.40, and most of the indicators going
oversold on most time frames, we should ask ourselves, have we reached a bottom
at yesterdayâ€™s low 1.4065? Price behavior has founded a support at 1.4079,
before going back above 1.41. Keeping this support is step one in using this
bottom to create a strong bounce, that serves (at least) as a correction for the
whole move from 1.4577. Step two would be breaking the Asian session top 1.4135,
then we can say that a correction has already started. Breaking resistance of
the day 1.4135, would target the previous important bottom 1.4216, and then
1.4321. But if the unexpected happens and we break 1.4079, the strong &
sharp drop from 1.4577 that has gained 500 pips until this moment will carry on,
and will target the important 1.4006, and may be later
â€¢ 1.4079: the most important intraday support
for the last few hours.
â€¢ 1.4006: the important bottom of Jul 29th.
1.3928: Jul 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4315: Asian session
â€¢ 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
â€¢ 1.4321: Fibonacci 50% for the whole
drop from 1.4577.
broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 91.30 and successfully
reached the modest target for this break 91.64, but it did so with an
astonishing accuracy since the Asian session high was exactly 91.64. This very
accurate stopping indicates that Fibonacci 38.2% has stopped in the way of more
rising, and could cause it trouble. Thus, we will consider 91.64 to be a
resistance capable of reversing the short term direction and initiate a falling
move from these levels. In case this resistance is broken the rise will
continue, targeting the most important Fibonacci levels 92.04 & 92.44. In
this case 92.44 will be a critical resistance for both short & medium term.
But, in the case of holding below 91.64, the price will move down to challenge
the rising trend line from 90.30, which is currently at 91.25. Breaking this
line will bring back 90.76 into the spotlight, which will be a first target for
this break, and then target 89.79 which is not less important at
â€¢ 91.25: the rising trend line from 90.30.
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to
â€¢ 91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move
down from 93.75.
â€¢ 92.04: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move down from
â€¢ 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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