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Thursday January 21, 2010 - 10:05:13 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 21,
Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales
Traders anticipate the publication of the UK Retail Sales on Friday
(January 22). It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based
on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK. It is an
important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer
confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a
lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts predict a change in the future reading to 1.30% versus a previous
reading of -0.30%.
broke yesterdayâ€™s support 1.4185, and successfully reached the suggested target
for this break 1.4103. With approaching 1.40, and most of the indicators going
oversold on most time frames, we should ask ourselves, have we reached a bottom
at yesterdayâ€™s low 1.4065? Price behavior has founded a support at 1.4079,
before going back above 1.41. Keeping this support is step one in using this
bottom to create a strong bounce, that serves (at least) as a correction for the
whole move from 1.4577. Step two would be breaking the Asian session top 1.4135,
then we can say that a correction has already started. Breaking resistance of
the day 1.4135, would target the previous important bottom 1.4216, and then
1.4321. But if the unexpected happens and we break 1.4079, the strong &
sharp drop from 1.4577 that has gained 500 pips until this moment will carry on,
and will target the important 1.4006, and may be later
â€¢ 1.4079: the most important intraday support
for the last few hours.
â€¢ 1.4006: the important bottom of Jul 29th.
1.3928: Jul 15th low.
â€¢ 1.4315: Asian session
â€¢ 1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
â€¢ 1.4321: Fibonacci 50% for the whole
drop from 1.4577.
broke the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 91.30 and successfully
reached the modest target for this break 91.64, but it did so with an
astonishing accuracy since the Asian session high was exactly 91.64. This very
accurate stopping indicates that Fibonacci 38.2% has stopped in the way of more
rising, and could cause it trouble. Thus, we will consider 91.64 to be a
resistance capable of reversing the short term direction and initiate a falling
move from these levels. In case this resistance is broken the rise will
continue, targeting the most important Fibonacci levels 92.04 & 92.44. In
this case 92.44 will be a critical resistance for both short & medium term.
But, in the case of holding below 91.64, the price will move down to challenge
the rising trend line from 90.30, which is currently at 91.25. Breaking this
line will bring back 90.76 into the spotlight, which will be a first target for
this break, and then target 89.79 which is not less important at
â€¢ 91.25: the rising trend line from 90.30.
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to
â€¢ 91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move
down from 93.75.
â€¢ 92.04: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move down from
â€¢ 92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.
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