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Tuesday March 1, 2005 - 11:37:06 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 1/3/2005

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. To anyone who is following my daily report, I apologize for not updating the report yesterday. The Crude oil closed around $51.55 yesterday, and it is continuing to form a bullish formation that could take it above previous all-time highs.. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly above 10.750, after diping from previous day’s higher levels.

Technicals at a Glance

Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3210 level. Pair is trading in a very narrow range, consolidating previous days’ gains and awaiting the big and key economic data due out this week. Pair is above both the 20 and the 50-day simple moving average and it looks posied to attempt an eventual break of the last fibonacci retracement level, around 1.3315, of the current downleg. Only a break below 1.3050 will resume the USD bullish view, which, however, looks still in good shape on a weekly closing basis.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2648. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day. Pair is now above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9210 level. The british pound is firm these days, after breaking the last fibonacci retracement level around 1.9175, and almost with a bullish cross of the 20 and 50-day simple moving averages. The long signal it generated days ago is in full work and what it is puzzling is the clear diverging signals within the daily and weekly charts, which signals are bearish on the currency. Does this mean the current GBP rally is short-lived, even in the case of new highs for the pair? Does this mean we are in the last attempt for a good rally for the european currency? I don’t know what will happen, but it could well be as presented.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8499. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above them both, and they are about to cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1635 level. If one had to take the CHF as the leader for the next USD move, then one could say that USD is definitely in a “loosing ground” situation, since pair was unable to break and stay above previous key support level around 1.1665, and any break below 1.1550 would make of the bullish USD view one in serious trouble.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2154. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below them both now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6905 level. After breaking the trendline and signaling long (Indicators Watch Level 1), pair hasn’t been able to break and hold above the 50-day moving average. Furthermore, it has slipped back down to re-test the previous downtrend line, and breaking it back down plus breaking the key 0.6850 support would definite change view to bearish. Interesting to note that the move down after breaking the current downtrendline started when, apart from being unable to close and hold above the 50-day simple moving average, it didn’t manage to break above the third fibonacci fan line (spped line) of the current previous downleg.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6833 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages but pair is trading above the 20-day now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Positive – signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

toni@fxstreet.com

 

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