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Monday January 25, 2010 - 09:56:37 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 25/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 25,
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo
Business Climate Index
Traders look forward to the publication of the
German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index tomorrow (January
26). The index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the
The reading is concluded from a survey of about 7,000
A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a slight rise to a
reading of 95.00 versus a previous reading of
We have not seen any
major moves on Friday. The Euro kept a bottom at 1.4027, which is very close to
the most important support at the moment 1.4014, and started to rise, breaking
the reportâ€™s resistance 1.4137,but settled for 1.4180 only, closing just a bit
below it. Candlestick watchers can notice that Thursdayâ€™s candle is in fact a
hammer, and that Fridays candle has recorded a higher high, working as a
confirmation for the hammer pattern. This makes the odds favor a continuation of
the rise that started at 1.4027, to at least create a matching correction for
the whole drop from 1.4577. Todayâ€™s resistance is provided by the falling trend
line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.4184, while the
support is provided by short term 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.4085. Breaking resistance
of the day would initiate a strong rise targeting 1.4302, and then 1.4367. But
if the unexpected happens and we break 1.4085, the strong & sharp drop from
1.4577 that has gained 550 pips until this moment will carry on, and will target
the very important 1.4014, and may be later 1.3928.
1.4085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 1.4014: Fibonacci 50% for the
long term (for the rise from 1.2885 to 1.5143).
â€¢ 1.3928: Jul 15th
â€¢ 1.4184: the falling trend line from 1.4554
on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4302: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from
â€¢ 1.4367: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from
Dollar-Yen did not move
but 75 pips on Friday, and did not break any major levels during that limited
move. Thus, our attention is still revolving around 89.79, the most important
support at all for now. As we have said in last week reports, the importance of
89.79 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for
the whole up move from 87.35 to 93.75. This very accurate stopping indicates
that Fibonacci 61.8% has stopped in the way of more dropping, and could cause it
trouble. Thus, we will consider 89.79 to be a support capable of reversing the
short term direction and initiate a rising move from these levels. In case this
support is broken the drop will continue, targeting 88.91 & 88.30. In this
case 92.44 will be a critical resistance for both short & medium term. But,
in the case of holding above 89.79, the price will move up to challenge the
previous important support 90.30. Breaking this support will put attention at
two important resistance levels and they are the short term 61.8% Fibonacci
resistance level at 91.06 and then the falling trend line from 93.75 which is
currently at 91.64.
â€¢ 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
â€¢ 88.91: Dec 18th low.
â€¢ 88.30: Dec
â€¢ 90.30: previous important support.
91.06: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
â€¢ 91.64: the falling trend line from
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
information on forex charts see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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