equity markets produced modest gains on Monday. The trading action suggests
that short-covering and bottom picking were most likely the catalysts behind
todayâ€™s rally.Volatility slowed
compared to last weekâ€™s trading action. Investors may be standing aside as they
await Wednesdayâ€™s Fed FOMC announcement.
Treasury futures traded lower as demand for lower yielding
assets fell. Demand for safer assets helped to lower yields and boost the March
Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes last week. This bodes well for the next
auction because it looks as if the Treasury will be able to offer lower yields.
Supply concerns are likely to continue to limit gains, however.
February Gold mounted a strong comeback following last
weekâ€™s sharply lower trade.Investors
dumped commodities because of the stronger U.S. Dollar. News that China
was beginning to shift toward a tighter monetary policy means less demand for
precious and industrial metals. Furthermore, a slow down in demand will mean
lower inflation which lessens the need for gold as a hedge. Most of Mondayâ€™s
strength could be attributed to short-covering and profit-taking.
March Crude Oil traded sideways-to-higher following last
weekâ€™s collapse.The prospect of a
stronger Dollar and weaker demand from China were the driving forces
behind the weakness. New regulations regarding position limits also led to
massive liquidation.Cold weather moving
to the East may drive up demand for heating oil which could underpin crude oil this
The U.S. Dollar eased a bit on Monday against most major
currencies as investor sentiment shifted back toward putting â€śrisk onâ€ť.News today centered on Greeceâ€™s effort to shore up its
finances by offering five-year bonds.Apparently the offering was well received by the investing public as
demand exceeded 20 billion Euros. Early expectations were for demand of 3 to 5
billion Euros. This indicates the European investing community has faith and
confidence in Greeceâ€™s
ability to pull out of its fiscal mess.
The March British Pound traded sharply higher all session
ahead of tomorrowâ€™s GDP report. Todayâ€™s action looked a little stronger than
short-covering so speculators could be anticipating a robust report. The U.K.
economy was the driving force behind this marketâ€™s recent weakness.Oversold conditions are likely to help the
Pound strengthen over the near-term or until more bad economic news hits the
wires. Traders are looking for GDP to increase by 0.4% after a 0.2%
The March Japanese Yen traded weaker following a volatile
week which saw the Greenback lose ground. News that Bernanke would be
reappointed helped to support demand for higher risk assets. This pressured the
Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave interest rates and
stimulus alone at this weekâ€™s meeting, but could threaten to intervene if this
currency pair rallies above 1.1200.
The March Swiss Franc traded higher throughout the day after
continuing last weekâ€™s late reversal. The chart pattern suggests that this
market is likely to continue to weaken until it reaches a key support zone at
.9702 to .9743. Traders should also watch the Euro. A sudden drop in the Euro
versus the Swiss Franc could lead to renewed talk of intervention by the Swiss National
The March Canadian Dollar continued to weaken despite firm
gold, crude oil and equity markets. Technically, this market is oversold which
should begin to attract bottom pickers. The chart indicates that a rally
through .9510 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the upside.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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