European market Update: World Economic Forum begins in Davos; BOE's Sentance and ECB's Weber comments stymie dollar upward momentum for the time being
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
European market Update: World Economic Forum begins in Davos; BOE's Sentance and ECB's Weber comments stymie dollar upward momentum for the time being
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FI) Finland Jan Business Confidence: -13.0 v -10.0 prior; Consumer Confidence: 14.5 v 14.9e - (FR) France Jan Consumer Confidence: -29 v -31e; Business Survey: -2 v -14 prior - (TT) Taiwan Dec Leading Indicator M/M: 0.8% v 0.9% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 2.0% v 1.5 prior - (SP) Spain Dec Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v -4.3% prior; Adj Real retail sales Y/Y: -1.4% V -3.6%e - (GE) German Jan CPI- Saxony M/M: -0.6% v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8% prior - (SW) Sweden Dec PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e - (IC) Iceland Sedlabanki lowers interest rates by50bps to 9.50%; Not expected - (IT) Italy Dec Trade Balance Non-EU: â‚¬1.3B v -â‚¬29M prior - (GE) German Jan CPI - Hesse M/M: -0.6% v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.8% prior - (GE) German Jan CPI - Brandenburg M/M: -0.6% v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7% prior - (GE) German Jan CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia: -0.7% v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prior - (RU) Russia Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.3%e - (SA) South Africa Dec CPI (all items) M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.4%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European markets snapped a 4 session losing streak on Tuesday but look ready to fall off the wagon once again. Markets opened to the downside and ex-DAX, have made little attempt to rally through the session. Negative sentiment followed a disappointing US close in which markets gave back gains and further downward rotation in Asia. Asian themes continue along the same tightening/lending macro path with the Shanghai Composite giving back the 3,000 handle for the first time since Nov 2, 2009. On this trading, European banks continue to take it on the chin and rotate lower. This movement has been furthered by reports from BBVA [BBVA.SP] that showed loan loss provision continuing their multi-quarter rise. Basic resource and mining firms have followed this China rotation and have also moved lower on the (broadly expected) disappointing double listing of Rusal [486.HK] in Hong Kong and Paris. With nearly every sector trading broadly lower, a individual stand out has been SAP [SAP.GE] which gave full Q4 figures and provided comforting FY10 unit and GM guidance. Markets are looking forward to a busy US session that will include earnings, oil figures, a 5-year note offering and FOMC decision.
-Individual equities: SAP [SAP.GE]: Reports Q4 Net â‚¬727M v â‚¬736Me, Op income â‚¬1.06B v â‚¬1.08Be; Expects growth in 2010 operating margin. || BBVA [BBVA.SP]: Reports FY09 Net â‚¬4.2B v â‚¬5.2Be. || Tullow [TLW.UK]: To places up to 80.4M (9.995 of shares outstanding) New Ordinary Shares to finance Uganda stake buy. || Vedanta [VED.UK]: Reports Q3 Rev $2.1B v $1.3B y/y; Zinc and Lead production at 1.38M tons v 938K y/y. || Axa [CS.FR]: CEO: Revenue levels in French Insurance unit +15% y/y in 2009.
- Speakers: Greece Finance Ministry stated that is categorically denied press reports of â‚¬25B bond sale to China *** BOE's Sentence commented that the BOE must be ready to adapt policies to change as the central bank could not rely on goods deflation to hold down UK inflation rate. He noted that the impact of GBP currency was feeding into CPI and that spare capacity might be less than expected. The combination of above-target services inflation and rising import prices persists, it will be difficult for the MPC to keep inflation on target. He noted that the UK should avoid a double-dip recession if global economy growth was healthy/ lastly he noted that the GBP currency was particularly competitive against the Euro *** China Banking Regulator CBRC commented that it would ask banks to lend in steady, prudent measures on a quarterly basis. The regulator noted that banks should be strict on property lending while fulfilling reasonable financing needs. It ordered banks to be careful of resurgence in bad loans and added that banks closely monitor lending to property markets and reduce lending to industries with overcapacity *** ECB's Weber commented that the Euro-Zone economy would improve during 2010 with GDP growth seen between +0.5% to +1.0% with growth of 1.5% in 2011. He noted that the central bank needed to discuss how to phase out support measures gradually. He added that the economy still required the assistance of an expansive fiscal and monetary policy. He reiterated that Greece had no option and must meet its pledge to conform to budget rules. There were no credibility issues over the euro and talk of Euro-Zone breakup was absurd. ECB would not set euro zone interest rates to suit the bloc's few troubled members and would have to do monetary policy for the union as a whole. He saw no major inflationary risks over the medium-term (in line with ECB view) *** PBOC's Deputy Gov Zhu forecasted 2010 GDP growth between 8% to 9%. He noted that balance growth was more important that this year's rate of growth. The risk for global economy was weak recovery coupled with volatile growth. He did note that a soft landing scenario could come with the support of government stimulus measures. The PBoC would maintain an "accommodative" economic policies. Lastly he did note that the risk of a sovereign debt crisis was real. *** Hungary Fin Min Oszko commented that the country does not plan to use IMF funds this year. He also pointed out that Hungary would not need to issue any more foreign currency denominated bonds this year
- Currencies: Risk aversion flow continued to aid the dollar and JPY pairs into the European session but comments from European central bankers stymied the upward momentum for the time being. ECB's Weber noted that the ECB could take further steps in the first half of this year to withdraw liquidity from the banking system as the economy gathers strength. BOE''s Sentence noted that BOE must be ready to adapt policies to change as the impact of GBP currency was feeding into CPI and that spare capacity might be less than expected. The EUR/USD tested fresh six-month lows at 1.4025 before consolidation to 1.4070 area. The GBP/USD was above the 1.62 handle after testing 1.6110 ahead of the European session. The Greek Finance Ministry helped to stem the aversion theme after it categorically deny press reports of â‚¬25B bond sale to China.
- Fixed Income: Greek 10yr yield spreads widened to fresh highs at Bunds+330bps after the finance ministry denied press reports stating that the company had mandated Goldman Sachs to sell â‚¬25B in debt to China's SAFE. German govt bonds are weaker with yields higher especially in the short end, with flattening attributed to comments from the Bundesbank Pres and ECB member Axel Weber, who addressed the topic of exit strategies with a relatively hawkish bent. Germany sold â‚¬2.5B in 30y bunds with in line results.
- Geo-Political: Political commentators are anxiously awaiting Pres (D) Obama's first State of the Union address tonight in Washington. Following several political setbacks in special elections in VA, NJ and most recently MA, pundits are looking to see the tone and message put forward regarding: health care, spending, jobs, banks and the protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Election results from Sri Lanka point to a re-election of current Pres Mahinda with approx 60% of the counted votes. His closest rival, former General Rajapaska is seen polling approx 36% of the vote. Both men were former allies and were key players in last year's military defeat of a multi-decade Tamil rebellion. Despite violence during the campaign season, the election has been peaceful with Rajapaska under close military protection. North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near the two countries disputed western coastal border. The fire from the North has been reported as part of a larger military exercise in the region. Following the first bombardment, North Korean news stated that the military would respond at any time to illegal action in its territory, this commentary was followed by further firing. Escalation of the situation is not widely expected.
- Energy: US API numbers after the close showed a strong draw down in crude and a smaller than expected build in gasoline stocks. Capacity utilization figures continued to disappoint. After confirming approval to purchase energy assets from Heritage [HOIL.UK], UK listed Tullow [TLW.UK] announced a 80.4M share secondary offering to finance the Ugandan acquisition. Tullow stated that it was in talks with both CNOOC and Total regarding JV operations in the region. Oil service firm Smiths International [SII] reported in the early premarket in line with expectations. Figures were down y/y however on continued reduction in activity in US fields.
- Sovereign Ratings: Fitch commented that its negative outlook on Portugal remained intact following the country's budget announcement and Fitch added that a downgrade was more likely than not ***
***Notes: - Davos economic forum provides a plethora of views from government and central bank members - Greece Fin Min denies press speculation of a pending â‚¬25B bond sale to China. - BOE Sentence a bit hawkish in his comments, GBP responds - China Banking regulator tries to clarify the views on bank lending policies - Roubini: Spain a looming threat to Euro region holding together. - Australia cpi slightly higher than expected. Rudd signals possible hike as economy improves.
***Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 22nd: No est v 9.1% prior - (GE) Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3%e v 0.8% prior, Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.9% prior - (GE) Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.4%e v 0.9% prior, Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.8% prior - 10:00 (US) Dec New Home sales: 366Ke v 355K prior; M?M: 3.0%e v -11.35 prior - 10:00 (US) Fed's Greenlee to speak on commercial real estate - 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies to House Oversight committee - 11:30 (SZ) Swiss President Leuthard speaks at Davos - 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-year notes - 13:00 (US) To sell $42B in 5-year notes - 13:00 (FR) France Dec Jobseekers Net Change: 15.0e v 3.1K prior - 14:15 (US) FOMC interest rate decision: No change in the 0.25% current rate - 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank Interest rate decision: No change expected in the official cash rate from the current 2.50% level - 16:00 (KS) South Korea Feb Business Survey - Manufacturing: No est v 90 prior; Non-Manufacturing: No est v 84 priro - 16:15 (UK) BOE's Haldane - (BR) Brazil Central Bank interest rate decision: No change expected in the SELIC target from the current 8.75% level
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