Wednesday March 2, 2005 - 01:37:09 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs the Swiss Franc 2nd March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1686 ... 1.1715 ... 1.1738 ... 1.1757
Support....: 1.1645 ... 1.1626 ... 1.1590 ... 1.1567
Slightly mixed - with 1.1686 & 1.1715 as important resistance
Losses from 1.1686 encouraged at first yesterday but this morning's recovery is slightly deep. Never-the-less we see resistance at 1.1715 and this represents an important break level. It looks likely that we shall see a move to this area but only above here and 1.1738 would allow gains to move up to 1.1783-1.1812 at least and should cause a pullback at the very least. Any breach would accelerate gains up to 1.1853 and possibly to the 1.1896 corrective high.
The decline from 1.1686 encouraged yesterday but these ran out of steam and it is possible that we see a move as high as 1.1715. While this holds there is still chance for the downside scenario to remain intact and from this level it would be wiser to look for a break back below 1.1686 and then 1.1645 to feel that the downside scenario is still possible. If a break of 1.1625-45 is seen then we would feel more comfortable looking for a return to the 1.1567-90 area once again.
Elliott Wave Comments:
28th February 2005
The 1.1733-40 resistance held perfectly and has caused a dip down to the minor pivot support area at 1.1620-30. The Wave b of the rally from 1.1567 rests at 1.1591 and with the low at 1.1567 we feel that this initial decline should stall in this area. This will form Wave -a- of a final ABC decline that we feel will complete a Triple Three in the 1.1424-40 area before a larger reversal higher.
2nd March 2005
Although the drop to 1.1576 looked promising for the downward scenario the pullback has been strong and we have to acknowledge the risk of a stronger reversal higher. Until the 1.1567 low is breached the possibility of a rally remains.
It is possible that we are merely seeing a slightly longer correction, possibly a sideways one but we would really need for this to hold below the 1.1715 level which represents wave equality of the 1.1576 - 1.1686 move. Thus this represents a break point and any move above here would threatens to reverse the structure and call for a move above 1.1738 to the 1.1785-1.1812 pivot and Fibonacci resistance. Any break there would then threaten the prior Wave b at 1.1896.
To retain the downside structure we need to see 1.1715 hold and then a move below 1.1567-76 which would then reconfirm the 1.1414-45 target.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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