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Thursday January 28, 2010 - 09:22:19 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/01/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis January 28,
Fundamental Analysis: US GDP
Traders anticipate the publication of the the Gross Domestic
Product measure tomorrow (January 29). The GDP is the broadest measure of
economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of
the economy as a whole.
Consumption is by far the largest component in the
GDP of the US and has the most affect on it.
The figures can be quite
volatile from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of
4.50% versus a past lower reading of 2.20%.
The Euro broke 1.4014, and dropped as expected, stopping
only 8 pips before our suggested target 1.3928. But the sharp n swift bounce
that brought us back above 1.40 may threaten this break, so will it hold?
Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the Euro, and before breaking
1.4014, has stopped at the falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time,
which makes this line one that deserves attention. The downtrend from 1.4577
will be dominant as long as we are below this line, which is currently at
1.4065, thatâ€™s why it is resistance of the day. While the support is at 1.3969,
and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for the next hours.
Breaking resistance 1.4065 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from
1.4577, with ideal targets at 1.4181 & 1.4257. On the other hand, breaking
support at 1.3969 means that we will leave the 1.39 areas after a swift visit
and head toward the 1.38s where 1.3888 & the important 1.3824
â€˘ 1.4014: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 1.3888: Jun 24th & 25th low.
â€˘ 1.3857: Dec 19th 2008 important
â€˘ 1.4065: the falling trend line from 1.4554
on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.4181: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from
â€˘ 1.4257: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from
As it is expected, the
â€śtrend line that deserves attentionâ€ť has successfully managed to present support
once again, giving the Dollar-Yen a chance to hold above support 89.12, breaking
resistance 89.69, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 90.30.
This fine bounce may manage to test the most important resistance for now 90.71,
which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. If the Dollar is meant
to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break
support at 89.98. And between 90.71 & 89.98, we will await a break of either
of them to set the direction for the short term. If wettest the falling trend
line and break the resistance 90.71, the price will already be in a correction
for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case
of a break of the support 89.98, we will target going back to the same trend
line that provided yesterdays support, which is currently at 89.05, and if
â€˘ 89.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 89.05: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
Dec 14th low
â€˘ 90.71 the falling trend line from
93.75, the most important resistance currently.
â€˘ 91.44: Fibonacci 50% for
the whole drop from 93.75.
â€˘ 91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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