European Market Update: German Labor minister cautious on employment outlook; Obama's State of the Union focus on jobs and Exports saps some dollar upside momentum for the time being
Thursday, January 28, 2010
European Market Update: German Labor minister cautious on employment outlook; Obama's State of the Union focus on jobs and Exports saps some dollar upside momentum for the time being
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (PH) Philippines Central Bank Interest leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%; as expected; Raises short term peso rediscounting window by 50bps - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex reserves w/e Jan 22nd: $435.6B v $441.4B prior - (GE) German Dec ILO Unemployment Rate 7.5% v 7.5%; Employment: up 35K m/m to 40.1M - (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Retail sales Volume Y/Y: 1.6% v -0.1% prior - (SW) Sweden Jan Consumer Confidence: 8.5 v 8.8e; Economic Tendency: 103.4 v 102.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: v -7e - (DE) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate Seasonally adj: 4.3% v 4.5%e - (SW) Sweden Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 8.3%e - (SW) Sweden Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 5.3%e - (IT) Italy Jan Business Confidence: 83.2 v 83.0e - (GE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: 6K v 15Ke; Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.2%e - (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.1%e - (PD) Poland 2009 Annual GDP: 1.7% v 1.6%e - (GE) German Jan CPI - Baden Wuerttemburg M/M: -0.6% v 0.7% prior, Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7% prior - (SA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.4%e - (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.7%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Jan Business Climate Indicator: -1.12 v -1.10e; Consumer Confidence: -15 v -15e; Industrial Confidence: -16 v -15e; Economic Confidence: 95.7 v 92.3e; Service Confidence: -1 v -3e - (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.3% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - In equities: European equity markets have followed strength from the Asian trading session by opening on their range highs. Macro themes that have led to equity strength began yesterday from the US FOMC, which reiterated that base interest rates would be kept near zero for an 'extended period' (despite one dissenter), along with the tone of US Pres Obama's State of the Union. That address, focusing on jobs and spending, rather than a continued heavy tone on banks led to sector relief. On this move, European financials traded higher leading the initial opening surge. Earnings in Europe continued with strong figures out of Swedish based retailer H&M [HMB.SW] that shook off some concerns with strong earnings that benefited the broader mid-range retail names. Earnings from Swiss drug ingredient manufacturer Lonza [LONN.SZ] carried worrisome commentary that destocking would continue into 2010, shares traded lower. Data proved supportive to the equity relief rally but gains could not be maintained. Into the 5:00EST hour, European markets began a sell off with continental bourses giving back a large portion of their gains. This move comes ahead of a packed NY pre-market session with major earnings in the tech, banking, pharma, industrial and consumer related sectors.
-In individual equities: Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK]: Reports Q4/FY09 production: FY09 Gold production increased by 9% to 135 thousand ounces. || Lonza [LONN.SZ]: Reports FY09 Net CHF159Me v CHF50Me, Rev CHF2.69B v CHF2.7Be, proposes final div CHF1.75/shr. || H&M [HMB.SW]: Reports Q4 Net SEK6.2B v SEK5.1Be, Rev SEK28.0B v SEK27.7Be (ex VAT). || ING [INGA.NV]: To appeal against specific elements of EU decision on restru
- Speakers: ECB's Tumpel Gugerell stated that now was the time for monetary/fiscal policies to return to normal as tensions have eased. Enhanced credit support would gradually expire and that Euro zone gov's needed to map out budget consolidation plans. The fiscal policy in EMU states were a reason for concern and reitereated the view that excess debt could increase medium and long-term interest rates. Inflation in Euro zone was firmly anchored at this time and saw sustained improvement of financial markets. Central banks to more closely watch risks in financial markets but added that systemic risks did not come from banks alone***German Econ Min stated that it opposed any bailout of any troubled EMU state and noted that some states did show dangerous weakness. He noted that private consumption would stay weak in 2010. He expressed confidence that the ECB would find the right moment to exit special measures and if exit wre time correctly, then there would be no inflation problem ***Japan's Diet passed the second extra budget for FY09; includes Hatoyama's Â¥7.2T stimulus measure *** Germany Labor Min Weise commented that he saw a structural change towards part-time employment in Germany. He noted that short -term work has stabilized employment and did not see any fundamental labor market turnaround seen at this time and would be a while before companies hire again*** BOE confirmed expiration of temporary liquidity swap line with FED and would; No longer will conduct USD repo operations *** Thai Central Bank stated that it planned to make more moves to liberalize capital outflows next week ***Korea Fin Min Yoon commented that was not considering direct control measures on Forex liquidity but more steps to enhance soundness of currency assets were possible. He added that now was not the time for Korean Central Bank to increase interest rates but needed to prepare measures to prevent negative impact from any tightening out of China's central bank***Swiss Fin Min commented that he saw no pressure for currency intervention and expressed satisfaction with current EUR/CHF exchange rate
- Currencies: The USD reversed earlier strength as European traders reacted positively to President Obama's State of the union address, which focused on job creation and exporters. The dollar upside momentum seen during Asia waned as European traders surmised that a firmer greenback tone was not compatible to the Administration's goal to double exports. The EUR/USD tested 1.3935 in Asia before regaining some composure to test 1.4050 in the European morning. Comments from the German Labor Minister highlighted the headwinds that employment would have on a sustainable economic recovery. EUR/USD just above the 1.40 handle as the NY morning approached. - The USD/JPY pair was firmer as dealers noted the yield on the 2-year note moved from 0.83%pre-Fed to 0.93% in early Europe.
- Fixed Income: - Govt bonds weaker as Obama's state of the union address fuels risk appetite, Europe plays catch up to FOMC/Hoenig induced higher yields. 10y Bund +2bps at 3.22%, curve a touch steeper. - Gilts underperform after the DMO's Stheeman concedes that end of BoE Gilt buying would likely put upward pressure on yields *** Greek yield spreads widen to fresh highs at Bunds+360bps, after former PBOC member states that Greek debt is "more unsafe than US Treasuries" and that China should not rescue Greece by buying its debt - S&P and Moody''s both make cautious comments on Portugal but fall short of taking any action. Portugal 10s 3bps wider at Bunds+106bps.*** Italy sells â‚¬7B in 3 and 10y BTP's - top of the range of expectations in terms of size.
- Geo-Political: US Pres (D) Obama delivered his first State of the Union address by focusing 2010 squarely on job creation. Attempting to rekindle the 'Change' approach of 2008/09 that has since seen electoral, populist and legislative bruising through his first year in office, job creation and spending formed the bulk of the address. Obama refused to surrender the Health Care issue, reiterating the watered down compromise agenda released last week. $787B in stimulus spending was vigorously defended by Obama along with plans to double levels of US exports over a 5-year period and further small business tax breaks in an effort to promote job growth. The UK is holding a joint conference to debate and plan the future of the now 9-year old ISAF deployment in Afghanistan. Talks will focus on a reported $500M plan to purchase support from various warlords and tribal officials in exchange for jobs and services. The conference also plans to discuss a 'transition of security' from NATO and international forces to local Afghan security forces, much like the approach used in Iraq. Karzai, Brown, Clinton and Ban Ki-moon will also address issues regarding planned Parliamentary elections set for the Spring of 2010. A standoff in Sri Lanka has continued following defeated Presidential candidate Fonseka refusing to accept the polling results. Official results gave incumbent Rajapaksa a clear majority with approx 58% of the vote. Fonseka remains secured in a hotel in the capital city of Colombo, surrounded by hundreds of heavily armed police and soldiers. Fonseaka's former high standing in the military and loyalty of the regular armed forces has presented loyalty questions to the Sri Lankan military.
- Energy: Gazprom has confirmed new long term supply contracts with Polish end users. The Russian firm is to supply up to 10.2b CM of gas per year through 2037. China is considering adjusting its energy pricing mechanism. State news authorities have stated that the current 22-day period lock up may be dropped on adjusted to better reflect domestic supply and demand fundamentals. China CIC fund has also been reported as interested in making new investment in energy and resource related firms. CIC has been reported to be in talks with Brazilian and Mexican names.
- Sovereign Ratings: Moody's commented that Portugal needed a credible deficit reduction. Portugal's new budget proposals revealed the scale of the challenges ahead for the country's economy. Moody's stated that a credible plan for deficit reduction would be needed to ensure the government's ability to reverse its adverse debt dynamics, and in turn to avoid further downward pressure on its ratings.*** S&P stated that it was awaiting details of Portugal's EU stability program before making any change to the country's sovereign ratings
***Notes: - Obama's State of the Union: Jobs, are the priority; seeks to Double Exports - First phase of Bernanke''s confirmation set to take place today with a procedural vote -FOMC: Hoenig dissented. The yield on the 2-year note moves from 0.83% to 0.93%. $/Y in lock step. - China soothes by pledging reasonable financing. Asian equities bounce after 9 straight down days. - World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland: Dep PBoC gov Zhu warns of consequences on emerging markets on USD carry trade unwind when Fed starts to hike. - Slew of key US corporate earnings to be released ahead of the equity open with BAX, BMY, CAH, CELG, CL, D, EK, F, HSC, LCC, LLL, LLY, MMM, MO, MOT, NOK, OSK, PG, POT, RTN, T, TXT, TYC, XEL among the notables
***Looking Ahead: - (GE) Jan Preliminary CPI M/M: % v -0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 1.0%e - (GE) Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v -0.4%e; Y/Y: % v 1.0%e - (CZ) Czech Dec Preliminary Industrial Output: 2.0%e v -0.1% prior - (PD) Poland Dec Budget Level (PLN): No est v -498.2M prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -24.4B prior - (SP) Spain Nov Total Housing Permits M/M: % v 14.8% prior; Y/Y: % v -36.1% prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.0% prior; Industrial sales Y/Y: -0.4%e v -1.25 prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 8.9%e v 9.1% prior - 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Total Copper Production: No est v 477.3K tons - 7:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance: No est v -2.4B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 1.0Be v 12.7B prior; Net debt to GDP ratio: 43.1%e v 43.0% prior - 8:30 (US) Dec Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.40e v -0.32 prior - 8:30 (US) Dec Durable Goods Orders: 2.0%e v 0.2% prior; Ex Transportation: 0.5%e v 2.0% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 482K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.593Me v 4.599M prior - 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell fixed rate bonds due in 2014 and 2017 - 13:00 (US) To sell $32B in 7-year notes
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