Thursday January 28, 2010 - 12:14:25 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 28-Jan-2010 - 1212 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0515/58...Might test 200-DMA Resistance once again
R: 1.0543 / 1.0585 / 1.0660
S: 1.0500-1.0480 / 1.0450-30 / 1.0385-55
After breaking below 1.050 and recording a low of 1.0476, Swiss has risen once again and is now trading above 1.050. A test of the 200-DMA (1.0543) Resistance might be seen in the US session today once again. Also failure to see a strong downmove below 1.0500 during the day, is keeping high chances of a break above the 200-DMA Resistance which might trigger fresh rally towards 1.07 over the next few weeks.
Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now as the pair is not showing much strength on its downside move. However, a strong break below 1.0500 might see 1.0450-30 on the downside. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 1.0456.
GBP-USD @ 1.6248/53...Resistance at 1.63 holding
R: 1.6286-6305 / 1.6395 / 1.6499
S: 1.6247-21 / 1.6173 / 1.6127
The Cable has managed to break above the 55-MA on the 4H. The Resistance at 1.63 has held and if it continues, the pair may come down towards 1.61 over today/ tomorrow. Else, a break of this is likely to make the pair test the wedge Resistance at 1.6412 on the weekly candles. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6286 and 1.6127 respectively.
On the weekly candles, the wedge provides the range of 1.6029-1.6412 for this week. The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.6046 and 1.6286 respectively.
AUD-USD @ 0.9021/24...100-DMA (0.9044) Resistance holding
R: 0.9044-66 / 0.9088 / 0.9130
S: 0.8940 / 0.8870 / 0.8790
The 100-DMA Resistance (0.9044) held during the day as expected and Aussie has come off slightly from the high of 0.9047. As mentioned earlier we see strong Resistance in 0.9044-88 region which we expect to hold in the US session today. This Resistance region includes the 100-DMA (0.9044), Trendline Resistance (0.9062) and the 61.8% Fibonacci Fanline Resistance (0.9088).
On the downside 0.8940 is the significant Support seen a break below which might pull it down towards 0.8870.
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