Technical Factors Could Trigger Stock Market Rally
Stock indices could rally today following yesterdayâ€™s
closing price reversal bottom. A friendly Fed statement and an upbeat speech
from Obama could be the catalyst behind this rally.Investor confidence seems to have been
restored which has once again generated interest in higher risk assets.
The March E-mini S&P 500 has formed a range between
1148.00 to 1078.50. This makes 1113.25 to 1121.50 a potential upside
target.The charts are also indicating a
possible rally to 1842.00 to 1855.50 in the March E-mini NASDAQ and to 10371 to
10445 in the March E-mini Dow.
Demand for higher yields is pressuring the March Treasury
Bonds and March Treasury Notes overnight. Yesterdayâ€™s Fed report signals that
it is getting closer to hiking interest rates.The news that the Fed is going to end its quantitative easing program on
schedule at the end of March could put upside pressure on yields. Tuesdayâ€™s
closing price reversal top which started inside a major retracement zone is
helping to pressure the March Bonds. All indications are for a possible break
back to 116â€™06.
February Gold dipped lower overnight, but buyers stepped in
when the Dollar weakened. The trend is up in the Dollar which should keep
pressure on gold, although oversold conditions make this market ripe for a
short-covering rally back to $1119.10.A
break under $1075.20 could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
March Crude Oil found support overnight ahead of the
December bottom at 72.53. The test of this price encouraged shorts to cover
positions while attracting bottom pickers. The fundamentals are still bearish
because of low demand and higher inventories. Renewed interest in higher risk
assets could trigger a short-covering rally however.The charts indicate there is plenty of room
to the upside with 78.99 a potential upside target.
The U.S. Dollar is trading flat with a slight bias to the
downside after yesterdayâ€™s upbeat Fed statement and last nightâ€™s State of the
Union address from President Obama.
Traders are reacting to the Fedâ€™s statement calling for a
â€śmoderateâ€ť economy rather than a weak economy. President Obamaâ€™s call for a
jobs plan and political unification is giving investors confidence to take on a
little more risk.
Technical factors may also be playing a major role in the
developing weakness in the Dollar since many markets reached oversold status
after nearing old bottoms or major retracement levels.
Todayâ€™s Durable Goods and Jobless Claims Reports should
offer a little more insight into the condition of the U.S. economy.Durable Goods are expected to be better at
1.6%. Jobless Claims should show a seasonally adjusted increase of 36,000 to
The March Euro continued to weaken overnight after taking
out stops under the psychological 1.40 level. Regaining this level will be a
sign of strength, but the trend will not turn to up until it crosses 1.4194.
The British Pound continues to build a support base with a
bias to the upside. Although the U.K. economy showed weakness earlier this week
after it was reported the GDP rose less than expected, investors seem confident
that the economy has turned the corner.
The March Japanese Yen is trading lower overnight following
the friendly news from the Fed and the upbeat speech from President Obama.
Technically, this market tested a major 50% level at 1.1227 which brought in
fresh sellers and triggered a profit-taking break.The current chart pattern suggests a possible
retracement to 1.0952 to 1.0888.
Oversold conditions and profit-taking is helping to support
the March Canadian Dollar. Short traders finally gave up their positions after
a key resistance angle failed overnight. Demand for higher risk assets, such as
equities and commodities, is also helping to drive the Canadian Dollar higher.
Higher stocks, gold and crude oil could support a rally today. The chart
indicates a correction to .9566 to .9617 is likely over the short-run.
Overnight, the March Swiss Franc continued its down move
with a trade through the December low at .9522.A new main top has been formed at .9647.This market is rapidly approaching oversold status and could begin a
correction at any time. Watch for a closing price reversal to signal the
formation of a bottom.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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