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Friday January 29, 2010 - 11:01:36 GMT
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European market Update: Renewed rumors of a potential Greek bailout plan aids risk appetite

Friday, January 29, 2010 5:56:26 AM

 European market Update: Renewed rumors of a potential Greek bailout plan aids risk appetite


- Indian Central Bank (RBI) raises its cash Reserve rate by 75bps to 5.75% (more than expected). It also maintained its Repo and reverse repo rates (as expected)
- (UK) Jan Nationwide House Prices M/M: 1.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 7.3%e
- (TH) Thailand Dec Current Account: $760M v $600Me; Overall Trade Balance: $2.5B v $2.3B prior; Total Trade Balance: -$0.1B v $1.1B prior; Exports: $14.5B v $13.7B prior; Imports: $14.7B v 12.6B prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 35.7% v 24.0%e; Capacity Utilization: 70.1% v 65.2%prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Business Sentiment Index: 50.4 v 49.0 prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec Producer Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.5% v 10.7%e
- (TU) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$4.9B v -$4.8Be
- (CZ) Czech Dec Preliminary Industrial Output Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e
- (SP) Spain Q4 Unemployment rate: 18.8% v 18.5%e; highest since Mar 1998
- (SP) Spain Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (SP) Spain Current Account: -€4.7B v -€4.2B prior
- (SW) Sweden Dec Household Lending Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.0% prior
- (SW) Sweden Nov Non-Manual Wages: 2.8% v 2.6% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.5% v 14.1% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Monthly Budget (HKD): 37.7B v 17.9B prior
- (EU) ECB Lending Report: Banks tightened credit standards less aggressively in Q4
- (EU) Euro-Zone Dec M3 Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.5%e; M3 three-mth avg: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (IC) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): 7.0B v 6.2B prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Retail sales Volume M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.2%e
- (IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.5%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.0% v 10.1%e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jan CPI estimate: 1.0% v 1.2%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.5% v 8.4%e
- (GR) Greece Nov retail Sales Y/Y: -9.0% v -14.0% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Jan KOF Leading Indicator: 1.77 v 1.71e

- In equities: Equities in Europe opened on a bounce-back from yesterday's broad declines. Asian markets traded sharply negative with the ASX200 at 7-week lows. In early European trading, banks looked to recover from losses over the past 6 sessions that have posted 5 declines. Energy names showed some resilience on a recovery in crude. In earnings actions, after the market reports from French Areva [CEI.FR] and German Henkel [HEN.GE] lead to positive trading. BMW [BMW.GE] provided prelim 2009 numbers along with reiterated guidance and traded higher. Revised guidance from aerospace/defense name Finmeccanicna [FNC.IT] led to heavier sector trade. The premarket session's premier earning came from Infineon [IFX.GE] which not only beat estimates, but updated Q2 and FY10 guidance. Shares opened well bid but rolled over and turned negative during the conference call. The firm's dependence on recovery in the auto sector has been attributed to part of this movement. Into 5:00EST, European equity markets are working hard to surrender all of their gains. Markets are cautious ahead of US Q4 advanced GDP release. Volumes in trading have remained steep with good turnover in tech and financials.

-Individual equities: Infineon [IFX.GE]: Reports Q1 Net €66M v €41Me , Rev €941M v €909Me; Raises FY10 guidance. || Areva [CEI.FR]: Reports FY Rev €14B v €14.5Be (incl T&D division); sees significant FY10 growth for nuclear and renewables segment. || BMW [BMW.GE]: Reports prelim FY09 Rev €50.68B v €48Be, Sees likelihood of positive 2009 earnings. || Porsche PAH3.GE: CEO: Says H1 Rev €2.9B -3.3% y/y; Unit sales at approx 33.2K units. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet reiterated his view that he agrees with US authorities when they state that a strong USD in best interest of US. He added that a strong dollar corresponded to overall interest of global economy and for Europe and that other currencies that do not float, could possibly have an orderly appreciation ***German Ministry of Finance (MOF) commented that the 2010 economic recovery might struggle to sustain and added that the recent pace of its recovery was slowing. It reported that Dec German Federal and State Tax revenues declined by 6.2% y/y and the overall 2009 Federal tax revenues was down 4.7% y/y ***EU's Almunia declined to comment on press speculation of a pending EU draft plan on Greece. He reiterated the official view that Greece would not default on its sovereign debt and added that "default does not exist" in Euro-Zone. He did note that officials were discussing the fiscal imbalances every month and noted that when markets unravel, we need to be serious as fiscal adjustments will be needed *** India Fin Sec Chawla commented that the RBI rate decision earlier today was appropriate. He reiterated the view that food inflation was a matter of concern *** China's PBoC issued its Q4 economic report. It stated that China's economic recovery would be cemented in 2010. The PBoC reiterated that it would maintain its 'moderately loose' monetary policy and "proactive" fiscal policy. China faced rising inflationary pressure in 2010 due to rising commodity prices and domestic money supply. It noted that its economy would be more complicated to manage this year and maintaining price stability to be more difficult *** Poland Gov't released some guidelines in its fiscal plan as it set spending cap to reduce deficit below 3% of GDP. Poland targeted to cut public debt to below 40% of GDP and anchor non-fixed budget spending growth at 1% in real terms *** German Bundesbank commented that it saw few signs of credit crunch developing and largely expected stable credit volume in 2010 *** India Central Bank's Subbarao commented that the RBI would use appropriate measures to manage capital flows. He added that capital flows to emerging markets would increase and that capital inflows into India corresponded to current Account deficit. He also noted thatinterest rate would rise at some future point

- Currencies: Rumors continue to swirl about the peripheral European debt situation. The session saw a bit of relief in risk aversion as Euro-zone bond spreads narrowed on persistent speculation of a looming Greek bailout. An FT article noted that high-level EU officials believe that Greece would in the last resort receive emergency support from other euro zone governments and the European Commission. Dealers noted rumors of a emergency meeting trying to be put together in Brussels for Feb 11 for these European peripherals. The USD and JPY pairs again retraced its Asian session gains throughout the European morning in price action similar to Thursday. However, the risk appetite remain on wobbly legs as FX dealers await details on the Spanish deficit plans ( Chatter circulated that the Spanish Gov't would discuss about €50B in spending cuts by 2013, which amounts to around of its 5% of GDP).
- The JPY softness also attributed toshin launches and month end rebalancing flows

- Fixed Income: Government bonds largely unchanged amidst risk revival with Bunds steady at 3.20%. German & US yield curves were flatter with short end selling (2yr note +1.5bps at 0.875%). Gilts subject to some bargain hunting, 10yr bought on approach of 4.00%. Market are focusing on expected end to BOE's QE next week. Greek 10y shredded 30bps to trade at Bunds +370bps after FT hinted at EU commission support for Greece. Spain spreads also improved by 7bps to +91bps ahead of its planed Budget details.

Commodities: Shanghai Copper inventory rises to 101.2K ton, up 3.9K tons w/w

-Geo/political: The US senate held a busy session on Thursday, approving Bernanke to a second term as Chairman of Federal Reserve, approving legislation to increase the ceiling on federal debts by $1.9T and approving legislation that allows for tightening sanctions on Iran. New approval allows Pres Obama to sanction gasoline suppliers and target economic and political elites in the country. North Korea has maintained its artillery barrage, firing shells into the sea near disputed islands on the peninsulas western coast. Shelling has continued for 3 days, on and off, leading South Korea to threaten further deployment of radar and counter battery units to the region. Russian aeronautic firm Sukhoi held its maiden flight for the countries next, 5th generation all weather, air superiority fighter aircraft, the PAK FA. The model is designed to directly challenge the US Air Forces F22 raptor and is being designed in a production JV with India. The PAK FA is scheduled to enter operations service in 2015

-Energy: Analysts at Credit Suisse extended their cautious commentary on the refining sector in their preview of Q4 earnings. CS stated that the recent recovery in sector margins are more a seasonal byproduct of cold winter, and should not be cheered. The FT has reported that Ukraine is seeking to sign new, long term contracts with Gazprom in hopes of not only avoiding transit issues in 2011, but to discourage the firm from developing bypassing pipelines. Gazprom and Russia have both strongly backed both the Nordstream and Stouthstream pipelines to bypass central and eastern European transit states. Comments from Royal Dutch Shell CEO Vosser, made in Davos, have fallen in line with a broad range of executive statements made at the conference from the energy industry. Vosser put the trading range of crude at $60-80bbl along with expectations that refining margins would remain low.

- India's Central Bank raises reserve ratio by 75bps (more than expected). Talks that fiscal consolidation is needed
- European peripherals remain a key trading focus. FT article hints at Greek bailout plans in the works
- Spain budget is a key focus for Europe and the risk aversion theme
- China Yuan currency revaluation rumors continue to circulate ahead of its Lunar New year (Set to start on Feb 14th)
- US GDP data on the docket

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (SA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance (ZAR) 0.3be v -2.5b prior
- 8:15 (BE) Belgium Dec Unemployment: No est v 8.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior; Raw material Price Index M/M: 1.4%e v 2.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Annualized Q/Q: 4.6%e v 2.2% prior; Personal Consumption: 1.8%e v 2.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.3%e v 0.45 prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.35e v 1.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 9:45 (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 57.2e v 58.7 prior
- 9:55 (US) Jan Final University of Michigan Confidence: 73.0e v 72.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAPM-Milwaukee: No est v 52.0 prior
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Unemployment Rate: 12.3%e v 12.1% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Dec Budget balance YTD: No est v -218.1B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest rate decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight lending rate at 3.50%
- (PD) Poland Dec Budget Level (PLN): No est v -498.2M prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -24.4B prior



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