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Wednesday March 2, 2005 - 10:40:09 GMT -

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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 2/3/2005

Markets Snapshot

Good morning everyone from To anyone who is following my daily report, I apologize for not updating the report yesterday. The Crude oil closed around $51.55 yesterday, and it is continuing to form a bullish formation that could take it above previous all-time highs.. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.830, in a yo-yo move for the past 3 sessions.

Forex Technicals at a glance

Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3110 level. Well, well, well ... that last fibonacci retracement level of the current downleg is working now! Or at least is what it seems for now. What we do now know is that while the EUR is trading below 1.3315 is keeping its bearish tone, which could be well reinforced if we see a clear break of the 1.3010 level again. At least for now, the pair is trading again below the 50-day moving average. As stated in previous reports, selling around that last key fibonacci level was advisable since the current short term move was bearish for the pair despite the upmoves, therefore selecting good risk/reward entry points should eventually yield some.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2652. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter moving averages for some time now, with the 20-day down the 50-day. Pair is now only above the 20-day simple moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9085 level. After having yielded over 500 pips after signaling long –according to indicators watch level 1-, having broken all 3 key fibonacci retracements on the upside, the GBP looks now weak again and it has broken back down the third fibonacci retracement, more or less around 1.9175. The puzzling thing is that we could tomorrow have the confirmation of a bullish cross within the 2 moving averages, which today give the cross to our eyes. Therefore, with the news due out all this week (today Mr. Alan Greenspan testifying on the US Economy, 15h GMT) and Friday’s NFP number, anything can happen for this extremely volatile currency.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8503. We have the 20-day crossing the 50-day on the upside, confirmation we should have tomorrow.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Positive.

Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1750 level. Spectacular as it is, pair has surged breaking above previous important level 1.1665, and it is testing another resistance area round 1.1750-1.18, where he is finiding the 50-day moving average, but now looks again poised to follow weekly charts, which are, as said yesterday. Bullish for the greenback overall. This coming-and-going moves for the pair could also well be the fierces attempts of the USD bears to resume the bearish momentum for the currency, ignoring the bullish technical signals and trying to impose its view. Technicals are working hard to keep the greenback in good shape and to recover key levels which would then confirm the long-term view and could generate fresh buyers to come in.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2150. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is below them both now, but pair is testing the 50-day moving average now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.

Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6865 level. Pair is tricky now, since it has only moved down after breaking the daily downtrend line, and it looks as if it is posied to regain the downtrend line, which could accelerate losses for the EUR against the GBP. No doubt the EUR is the weakes of the three european currencies these days, but one would expect a much better behaviour given the fact it looks good technically speaking. Its current supports are found around 0.6850 and then the big 200-day moving average at 0.6834. However, testing again the 0.6850 level is not a good singal, so if it is unable to regain the 0.6880 level soon, it may face some trouble for the time being. Hourly chart studies show some strength for the pair, though.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6834 today. We have a bearish cross from the 2 moving averages and pair is below them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Positive – signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.

Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.

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