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Monday February 1, 2010 - 03:41:27 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 01-Feb-2010 - 0339 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US markets closed lower over the last week. The Dow (10067.33) closed 1% lower while the Nasdaq (2147.35) ended 3% lower. The proposed tightening of banking regulations and negative investor sentiments are driving the markets down despite some positive data releases and above expectation earning by companies. Even the election of Bernanke for the second term could not provide any respite to the markets. The Dow is trading above a significant support at 10000, which needs to be watched in the week ahead.

All Asian markets were in the red lover last week. The Nikkei (10158.75) ended 4% lower, while the Sanghai (2952.74) ended 5.6% lower. The markets were down driven by weak global sentiments. The markets have again opened in the red today with the Nikkei (10158.75) down 0.39% while the Shanghai (2921.72) down 2.28%. The Shanghai is trading below 3000 which could be significant in the days ahead. For Shanghai charts, please follow the link below:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/shanghaicandle.shtml#candle

The Sensex (16357.96) closed 3% lower, dominated by global institutional investors and is expected to remain weak unless some major developements are seen.


COMMODITIES
Crude (72.72) continued its fall on Friday and closed lower below 73. This is the third consecutive lower weekly close. The demand concerns and continued strengthening of the dollar
are keeping up the downside pressure on the price. As mentioned earlier we might expect a downmove towards 72-71 in the coming days. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1082.20) is continuing to trade lower. The stronger dollar is retaining the downside pressure. 1070-65 is a very significant Support region to be watched for on the downside which might be tested this week. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


CURRENCIES
All-round Dollar strength today, in continuation of last week. The Euro (1.3865) trades at the 200-week Moving Average. There are some chances of a technical rally, but the overall trend is down. Dollar-Yen (90.05) has been stabilising near 90 over the last few days and the chances of a fall towards 88.50 have reduced a bit. The Aussie (0.8821) has seen a decisive vreak below the 21-week Moving Average yesterday, signalling a break of the earlier bull trend.

Importantly, the market rhetoric has changed. Earlier, the Dollar was being bought on bad US data. Now the Dollar is being bought on good economic data (the stellar number of 5.7% GDP reading on Friday, for example). This marks a possible shift in overall market sentiment.

The Pound (1.5940) has also dipped reflecting the overall Dollar strength as also suffering from doubts raised on the viability of its banking sector by S&P last week. It has been doing better than the Euro through January, and might strengthen a little more. Even the Swissy has been doing better than the Euro through January. At the same time, however, the Swiss (1.0610) has lost against the Dollar, like all the other currencies, with USDCHF rising past the 200-day MA (1.0530) on Friday, signalling a trend reversal.

There is a trend reversal in Asia as well. Dollar-Won (1171) has risen past a resistance trendline that was coming down from 1316 in Jul-09. USD-SGD (1.4111) has also risen past the resistance at 1.41 which had been holding it down all through last week. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 46.13 on Friday, but the NDFs have been quoted higher near 46.29/34. Look for Rupee weakness going ahead.


INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The 2Y and 10Y yields fell 2 bps each to quote at 0.84% and 3.60% respectively.

On Friday, in India the RBI increased the CRR by 75 bps to 5.75%. The market expectation was 50 bps hike. The Repo and Reverse Repo rates were kept unchanged at 4.75% and 3.25% respectively.

The upcoming central bank's meeting scheduled for this week are the RBA meeting tomorrow (02-Feb-10) and the BOE and ECB meeting on Thursday (04-Feb-10)


DATA TODAY
01:30 GMT US Dec Personal Income
...Expected 0.4%...Previous 0.4%

01:30 GMT US Dec PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.5%

15:00 GMT Jan US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 55.7...Previous 54.9


FRIDAY'S DATA
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 4.75%...Previous 4.75%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 3.25%...Previous 3.25%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

RBI CRR
...Actual 5.75%...Previous 5.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/inrbi.shtml

EU Unemp
...Actual 10.0%...Previous 9.9%%

US GDP Q4 '09 (Adv)
...Actual 5.7%...Previous 2.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usgdp.shtml

CA GDP
...Actual 0.4%...Previous 0.3%

 

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