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Monday February 1, 2010 - 10:53:57 GMT
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European market Update: European Manufacturing data readings improve; US FY11 budget details to be focus later today

Monday, February 01, 2010 5:51:15 AM

 European market Update: European Manufacturing data readings improve; US FY11 budget details to be focus later today


- (IN) India Dec Trade Balance: -$10.2B v -$9.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 9.3% v 18.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: 27.2% v -2.6% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: €90M v €120Me
- (SW) Sweden Jan Swedbank PMI: 61.7 v 59.0e
- (FR) France Dec Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -3.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Jan PMI: 53.5 v 48.5 prior
- (IR) Ireland Jan NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 v 48.8 prior
- (TU) Turkey Jan Manufacturing PMI: 53.0 v 50.6 prior
- (PD) Poland Jan Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 v 52.4 prior
- (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 47.6 prior
- (SP) Spain Jan Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 v 45.2 prior
- (DE) Denmark Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v -2.8% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Jan SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 56.0 v 55.6e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 50.9 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 16.0% v 11.4%e; Volume Y/Y: 11.3% v 9.3%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 51.2e
- (FR) France Jan Final Manufacturing PMI: 55.4 v 54.7e
- (GE) Germany Jan Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.7 v 53.4e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jan Final Jan Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 52.0e
- (SA) South Africa Jan Kagiso PMI:53.6 v 53.4e
- (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.5%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1% prior
- (RU) Russia 2009 Annual Real GDP -7.9% v -8.5%e
- (UK) Jan Manufacturing PMI: 56.7 v 53.9 prior
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit £ v -£0.4B; Net Lending: £ v £1.6Be
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: K v 61.8Ke
- (UK) Dec Final M4 Money Supply M/M: % v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.4% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV CPI: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (DE) Denmark Jan PMI Survey: 57.1 v 49.7 prior

- In equities: Equity markets in Europe opened on a lower note, following a tragic month of January, which posted the largest monthly losses since February of 2009. Downside trading on the open followed a similar rotation in
Asia that took its cue from a continued fear that China's outperformance would lead to monetary tightening. China's Jan manufacturing PMI, showing continued rises, sent industrial and banking names lower. This pattern continued in Europe, but unlike patterns saw last week, downside sentiment has slowly been paired back. Strength in defensive sectors, most notably UK listed utilities, along with mixed auto moves (those not affected by an ever-growing accelerator recall list) rallied markets. Outperformance of Ryanair [RYA.UK] after earnings and Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] following a production report furthered this move. Into 5:00EST, the FTSE100 continues to outperform, trading in positive territory on strength in utilities and mixed financials while the DAX has re-entered negative territory, where the CAC has remained through the morning session. Volumes remain high, whilst coming off their best levels seen in last week's trade.

-In equities: Gazprom [GAZP.RU]: Reports Q3 Net RUB175B v RUB156Be, Rev RUB771B v RUB715Be. || Xstrata [XTA.UK]: Provides 12-month production update: Saw record annual production of thermal coal, mined nickel, zinc in concentrate and lead metal. || Ryan Air [RYA.UK]: Reports Q3 net loss €10.9M v loss €42Me, Rev €612M v €574Me, raises FY10 Net Guidance to €275M v €262Me. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Exec: Will make recall of approx 100K units due to accelerator flaw. || TNT [TNT.NV]: Provides Q4 trading update: Sees positive developments for Express Unit volume; Trading conditions are improving. ||

- Speakers: BOJ's Economist Momma commented that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy stance to defeat deflationary forces ***India RBI Gov Subbarao reiterates that he saw FY2009/10 inflation rate of 8.5% by March;. He added that the recent performance of the economy has been. Inflation in the food sector might spill over into the rest of the economy and that Last week policy actions taken by the RBI would drain excess cash from the economy and keep inflation in check. (Reminder RBI raised its Cash Reserve Rate (CRR) by 75bps, which was more than analyst expectations). The central bank targeted it policy to support economic growth and tame inflation. The RBI would give a longer inflation outlook in April. The RBI Gov stated that he could not speculate on steps to curb capital flows and saw no active measures at this time. The RBI stressed that it would take steps to limit capital flows if they were to surge*** India Central Bank's Gokarn stated that manufacturing was approaching capacity constraint. He noted that inflation would plateau after March *** PBoC's advisor Fan commented that the inflation trend and asset bubbles were a concern. The advisor did note that recent increase in reserve ratio gives the market the right signal. Overcapacity and food supply might limit CPI gains. He commented that
China's forex reserves needed diversification (would not comment on Greek bonds). He stated that China faced boon economic times and not a crisis and saw developing economies decoupling in the long run ** Poland Fin Min forecasted that CPI MoM was seen at 0.5% v 0.0% prior. The YoY seen steady at

- Currencies: The GBP exhibited weakness in the session with dealers attributing its initial soft tone to fixing-related flows. The UK Manufacturing PMI data also highlighted the positive effect of a
GBP currency as the data series hit a 15-year high as the new export orders and output were the main contributors. GBP/USD tested 1.5850 area while EUR/GBP powered ahead to test 0.8770 level. The BOE is schedule to meet later this week with the focus on its Quantitative easing measures. Most expect the BOE to keep open the option of expanding QE further to assess if the economic recovery was too anemic to last. ***The EUR/USD just above the Jan month end low of 1.3860 and straddled the 1.39 handle throughout the morning. EUR/CHF cross is steady after the intervention rumors by the SNB circulated late Friday.

- Fixed Income: European peripheral government bonds have firmed up against the core with
Greece leading the way, narrowing over 20bps in 10s to the Bunds+340bps area. Core markets are broadly unchanged in the first session of a supply heavy week on both sides of the Atlantic. Gilts have noticeably managed to escape relatively unscathed from stronger than expected PMI manufacturing and consumer credit/lending data. Treasuries are softer in both cash and futures with the market nervously awaiting details of a $3.8T Obama budget, incorporating a $1.6T deficit later this morning, not to mention Treasury financing estimates this afternoon and a quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday.

Commodities: Balrampur Chiarman commented that India's Sugar output in FY2010/11 would not top 20M tons with demand seen at 24M tons ***Philippines 2010/11 sugar output seen around 2.3M tons and might extend sugar importation for 2010/11 crop year

-Geo/political: The US decided to proceed with a $6.4B arms sale to Taiwan. The sale will include PAC-3, helicopters, mine-sweepers and command and control equipment. In response,
China has ended joint US and Taiwan military operations and threatened that the action may disrupt regional initiatives, and broader diplomatic efforts. China has also announced it is considering sanctions on firms involved in the sale. US Pres Obama is set to announce FY11 budget at $3.8T that includes $25B in emergency aid for US states. The budget will cut spending on 120 federal programs. Specific cuts include two NASA programs including plans for the Shuttle successor and killing any plans for a moon return by 2020. US and Gulf Region allies are seen as significantly beefing-up anti-missile defenses against Iran. Commentary over the weekend looked at continued deployments of land, sea and air based ABM systems by both domestic forces and the US military. The deployments are seen as response to Iran's continued hard line stance and multiple missile tests. The government of Yemen has rejected a cease fire offer from northern Shia Houthi separatists. Yemen's defense council stated that it was not ready to accept a conditional ceasefire and would continue military operations. The domestic conflict has spilled over into neighboring Saudi Arabia. Argentina Central Bank Gov Redrado officially resigned over the weekend under what he termed as continued government trampling on the independence of the Central Bank. Redrado and Argentina's Pres Kirchner had been in a heated political, policy and legal debate about her attempts to use state funds to service international debt payments (which the Central Bank rejected).

-Energy: OPEC Gen Sec El-Badri commented that oil demand declined by 2M bps in 2008/09 period and he remained concerned over future demand reliability. He unemployment levels and tighter credit policies. He noted that
US move against excessive speculation was a right step. He saw no Need for Iraq quota for next five years

In the papers: Washington Post: US Administration upcoming fiscal year budget to total $3.8T v 3.6T in current fiscal year budget. The Administration would ask for more federal spending in education funding and civilian research. The new budget to include $25B in emergency aid for US states; will target 120 federal programs to be eliminated or reduced. A related report in the WSJ noted that the White House would estimate that the FY10 budget deficit would be $1.6T v the CBO's $1.3T forecast.

- European Manufacturing PMI register better readings MoM;
UK data improves thanks to weaker GBP currency
- US Administration places $3.8T budget on the table. Deficit would register an all time high $1.6 T.
- China Jan Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.8 is the first MoM decline since May 2009. Forward looking component implies credit tightening taking hold. Shanghai copper limit down -5%
- China Advisor Ba Shusong:
China might raise interest rates once consumer inflation exceeds one-year deposit rate of 2.25%.
- Times: Leaked plan for
Greece says that Brussels will publish plan this week "Urgent measures for Greece to be taken by May 15." Plan expects Germany and France to bail out Greece to prevent a disastrous crash of the Euro currency
***Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.8 prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$925Me v $1.4B prior; Exports $10.7Be v $13.7B prior; Imports: $11.9Be v $12.3B prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.5% prior
- 9:00 (US) US FY11 budget
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 55.5e v 55.9 prior; Prices Paid: 62.4e v 61.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v -0.6% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations: No est v 16.7% prior
- 14:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v €2.5B prior; Budget balance YTD: No est v -€85.9B prior



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