European market Update: European Manufacturing data readings improve; US FY11 budget details to be focus later today
Monday, February 01, 2010
European market Update: European Manufacturing data readings improve; US FY11 budget details to be focus later today
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (IN) India Dec Trade Balance: -$10.2B v -$9.9B prior; Exports Y/Y: 9.3% v 18.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: 27.2% v -2.6% prior - (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: â‚¬90M v â‚¬120Me - (SW) Sweden Jan Swedbank PMI: 61.7 v 59.0e - (FR) France Dec Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -3.0%e - (HU) Hungary Jan PMI: 53.5 v 48.5 prior - (IR) Ireland Jan NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 v 48.8 prior - (TU) Turkey Jan Manufacturing PMI: 53.0 v 50.6 prior - (PD) Poland Jan Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 v 52.4 prior - (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 47.6 prior - (SP) Spain Jan Manufacturing PMI: 45.3 v 45.2 prior - (DE) Denmark Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v -2.8% prior - (SZ) Swiss Jan SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 56.0 v 55.6e - (CZ) Czech Jan Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 50.9 prior - (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 16.0% v 11.4%e; Volume Y/Y: 11.3% v 9.3%e - (IT) Italy Jan Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 51.2e - (FR) France Jan Final Manufacturing PMI: 55.4 v 54.7e - (GE) Germany Jan Final Manufacturing PMI: 53.7 v 53.4e - (EU) Euro-Zone Jan Final Jan Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 52.0e - (SA) South Africa Jan Kagiso PMI:53.6 v 53.4e - (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.5%e - (IT) Italy Dec Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1% prior - (RU) Russia 2009 Annual Real GDP -7.9% v -8.5%e - (UK) Jan Manufacturing PMI: 56.7 v 53.9 prior - (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit Â£ v -Â£0.4B; Net Lending: Â£ v Â£1.6Be - (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: K v 61.8Ke - (UK) Dec Final M4 Money Supply M/M: % v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.4% prior - (BR) Brazil Jan FGV CPI: 1.3% v 1.3%e - (DE) Denmark Jan PMI Survey: 57.1 v 49.7 prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - In equities: Equity markets in Europe opened on a lower note, following a tragic month of January, which posted the largest monthly losses since February of 2009. Downside trading on the open followed a similar rotation in Asia that took its cue from a continued fear that China's outperformance would lead to monetary tightening. China's Jan manufacturing PMI, showing continued rises, sent industrial and banking names lower. This pattern continued in Europe, but unlike patterns saw last week, downside sentiment has slowly been paired back. Strength in defensive sectors, most notably UK listed utilities, along with mixed auto moves (those not affected by an ever-growing accelerator recall list) rallied markets. Outperformance of Ryanair [RYA.UK] after earnings and Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] following a production report furthered this move. Into 5:00EST, the FTSE100 continues to outperform, trading in positive territory on strength in utilities and mixed financials while the DAX has re-entered negative territory, where the CAC has remained through the morning session. Volumes remain high, whilst coming off their best levels seen in last week's trade.
-In equities: Gazprom [GAZP.RU]: Reports Q3 Net RUB175B v RUB156Be, Rev RUB771B v RUB715Be. || Xstrata [XTA.UK]: Provides 12-month production update: Saw record annual production of thermal coal, mined nickel, zinc in concentrate and lead metal. || Ryan Air [RYA.UK]: Reports Q3 net loss â‚¬10.9M v loss â‚¬42Me, Rev â‚¬612M v â‚¬574Me, raises FY10 Net Guidance to â‚¬275M v â‚¬262Me. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Exec: Will make recall of approx 100K units due to accelerator flaw. || TNT [TNT.NV]: Provides Q4 trading update: Sees positive developments for Express Unit volume; Trading conditions are improving. ||
- Speakers: BOJ's Economist Momma commented that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy stance to defeat deflationary forces ***India RBI Gov Subbarao reiterates that he saw FY2009/10 inflation rate of 8.5% by March;. He added that the recent performance of the economy has been. Inflation in the food sector might spill over into the rest of the economy and that Last week policy actions taken by the RBI would drain excess cash from the economy and keep inflation in check. (Reminder RBI raised its Cash Reserve Rate (CRR) by 75bps, which was more than analyst expectations). The central bank targeted it policy to support economic growth and tame inflation. The RBI would give a longer inflation outlook in April. The RBI Gov stated that he could not speculate on steps to curb capital flows and saw no active measures at this time. The RBI stressed that it would take steps to limit capital flows if they were to surge*** India Central Bank's Gokarn stated that manufacturing was approaching capacity constraint. He noted that inflation would plateau after March *** PBoC's advisor Fan commented that the inflation trend and asset bubbles were a concern. The advisor did note that recent increase in reserve ratio gives the market the right signal. Overcapacity and food supply might limit CPI gains. He commented that China's forex reserves needed diversification (would not comment on Greek bonds). He stated that China faced boon economic times and not a crisis and saw developing economies decoupling in the long run ** Poland Fin Min forecasted that CPI MoM was seen at 0.5% v 0.0% prior. The YoY seen steady at
- Currencies: The GBP exhibited weakness in the session with dealers attributing its initial soft tone to fixing-related flows. The UK Manufacturing PMI data also highlighted the positive effect of a GBP currency as the data series hit a 15-year high as the new export orders and output were the main contributors. GBP/USD tested 1.5850 area while EUR/GBP powered ahead to test 0.8770 level. The BOE is schedule to meet later this week with the focus on its Quantitative easing measures. Most expect the BOE to keep open the option of expanding QE further to assess if the economic recovery was too anemic to last. ***The EUR/USD just above the Jan month end low of 1.3860 and straddled the 1.39 handle throughout the morning. EUR/CHF cross is steady after the intervention rumors by the SNB circulated late Friday.
- Fixed Income: European peripheral government bonds have firmed up against the core with Greece leading the way, narrowing over 20bps in 10s to the Bunds+340bps area. Core markets are broadly unchanged in the first session of a supply heavy week on both sides of the Atlantic. Gilts have noticeably managed to escape relatively unscathed from stronger than expected PMI manufacturing and consumer credit/lending data. Treasuries are softer in both cash and futures with the market nervously awaiting details of a $3.8T Obama budget, incorporating a $1.6T deficit later this morning, not to mention Treasury financing estimates this afternoon and a quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday.
Commodities: Balrampur Chiarman commented that India's Sugar output in FY2010/11 would not top 20M tons with demand seen at 24M tons ***Philippines 2010/11 sugar output seen around 2.3M tons and might extend sugar importation for 2010/11 crop year
-Geo/political: The US decided to proceed with a $6.4B arms sale to Taiwan. The sale will include PAC-3, helicopters, mine-sweepers and command and control equipment. In response, China has ended joint US and Taiwan military operations and threatened that the action may disrupt regional initiatives, and broader diplomatic efforts. China has also announced it is considering sanctions on firms involved in the sale. US Pres Obama is set to announce FY11 budget at $3.8T that includes $25B in emergency aid for US states. The budget will cut spending on 120 federal programs. Specific cuts include two NASA programs including plans for the Shuttle successor and killing any plans for a moon return by 2020. US and Gulf Region allies are seen as significantly beefing-up anti-missile defenses against Iran. Commentary over the weekend looked at continued deployments of land, sea and air based ABM systems by both domestic forces and the US military. The deployments are seen as response to Iran's continued hard line stance and multiple missile tests. The government of Yemen has rejected a cease fire offer from northern Shia Houthi separatists. Yemen's defense council stated that it was not ready to accept a conditional ceasefire and would continue military operations. The domestic conflict has spilled over into neighboring Saudi Arabia. Argentina Central Bank Gov Redrado officially resigned over the weekend under what he termed as continued government trampling on the independence of the Central Bank. Redrado and Argentina's Pres Kirchner had been in a heated political, policy and legal debate about her attempts to use state funds to service international debt payments (which the Central Bank rejected).
-Energy: OPEC Gen Sec El-Badri commented that oil demand declined by 2M bps in 2008/09 period and he remained concerned over future demand reliability. He unemployment levels and tighter credit policies. He noted that US move against excessive speculation was a right step. He saw no Need for Iraq quota for next five years
In the papers: Washington Post: US Administration upcoming fiscal year budget to total $3.8T v 3.6T in current fiscal year budget. The Administration would ask for more federal spending in education funding and civilian research. The new budget to include $25B in emergency aid for US states; will target 120 federal programs to be eliminated or reduced. A related report in the WSJ noted that the White House would estimate that the FY10 budget deficit would be $1.6T v the CBO's $1.3T forecast.
***Notes: - European Manufacturing PMI register better readings MoM; UK data improves thanks to weaker GBP currency - US Administration places $3.8T budget on the table. Deficit would register an all time high $1.6 T. - China Jan Manufacturing PMI reading of 55.8 is the first MoM decline since May 2009. Forward looking component implies credit tightening taking hold. Shanghai copper limit down -5% - China Advisor Ba Shusong: China might raise interest rates once consumer inflation exceeds one-year deposit rate of 2.25%. - Times: Leaked plan for Greece says that Brussels will publish plan this week "Urgent measures for Greece to be taken by May 15." Plan expects Germany and France to bail out Greece to prevent a disastrous crash of the Euro currency ***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.8 prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$925Me v $1.4B prior; Exports $10.7Be v $13.7B prior; Imports: $11.9Be v $12.3B prior - 8:30 (US) Dec Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Dec PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.5% prior - 9:00 (US) US FY11 budget - 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 55.5e v 55.9 prior; Prices Paid: 62.4e v 61.5 prior - 10:00 (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v -0.6% prior - 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations: No est v 16.7% prior - 14:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v â‚¬2.5B prior; Budget balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬85.9B prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.