Monday February 1, 2010 - 12:25:08 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 01-Feb-2010 - 1222 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0593/98...Support in 1.0530-00 region
R: 1.0665-80 / 1.0700-30 / 1.0851
S: 1.0560 / 1.0530-00 / 1.0480
Swiss has broken and is now trading slightly below 1.06. However, it not showing much strength on its downmove below 1.06 and if it continues to trade below 1.06 we might see a downmove towards the Support in 1.0530-00 region which we expect to hold in the US session today. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.0524.
On the upside a strong break above 1.06 might see a rise towards 1.0700-30 in the coming sessions.
Remeber the Significant levels to watch for on the upside are 1.0699 and 1.0940 which are the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of the fall from 1.1965 (09-Mar-09) to 0.9916 (23-Nov-09).
GBP-USD @ 1.5873/78...Might dip further
R: 1.5984 / 1.6018 / 1.6045-70
S: 1.5830-00 / 1.754 / 1.5586
Cable has dipped further following the data releases that showed an annual decline in UK home prices and decline in the number of mortgages granted. As mentioned earlier we might see further dip towards 1.5830-00. The 55-DMA (currently at 1.5754) is the significant Support seen on the downside. Any sharp upmove is not looking likely now and we expect it to trade below 1.60 for some time. However, a break above 1.60 might take it up towards 1.6080-1.6100.
Note that the projected Max-high and Max-Low for the day is 1.6051 and 1.5824 respectively.
AUD-USD @ 0.8818/21...Resistance at 0.8910
R: 0.8910 / 0.8954 / 0.8990
S: 0.8800 / 0.8765 / 0.8670
Aussie is continuing to trade lower. Though a break below the significant Support at 0.8800 was seen during the day, it has bounced back from the day's low of 0.8788 and is now trading slightly above 0.8800. Our view remains the same on the pair. The trend reversal is in place and a strong break below 0.8800 would also confirm the double top formation on the weekly candles which would trigger further downmove towards 0.8650-00 in the coming days. Any sharp upmove is not looking likely now and wee see Resistance at 0.8910 which we expect to hold in the US session today. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 0.8905. To see the AUD-USD graph click on the following link:
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