The U.S. Dollar lost ground against most of its
counter-parts as better than expected U.S. economic data sent money into higher
risk assets while paring the safety premium built into the Dollar last week.
The Dollar was under pressure from the get-go this morning
following a round of position squaring overnight in the European and Asian
markets. Many traders were lightening up on overbought positions in the Dollar
in anticipation of a choppy two-sided trade ahead of this Fridayâ€™s U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
This morning the Dollar got a little boost following the
release of two better than expected economic reports, but was unable to build
on the small gains. The reports showed a rise in consumer spending in December
and an increase in U.S.
manufacturing data last month. Although the Dollar was down today, there will
be a point in the near future where the Greenback begins to benefit from the
The EUR USD trading better throughout the U.S. session
after firm overnight trading. Relaxed concerns about the fiscal crisis in Greece
triggered todayâ€™s short-covering rally. Investors expect to hear more upbeat
news on Wednesday when the European Union releases its official opinion on Greeceâ€™s efforts
to shore up its budget. Upside momentum could take this market back to the last
main bottom at 1.4029. Key support remains 1.3800. This price represents a
major 50% retracement level.
Concerns over a poor economy, growing fiscal deficit and the
election helped to pressure the GBP USD. Traders also remain pessimistic about
how the economy will respond following the ending of the Bank of Englandâ€™s
quantitative easing program. Todayâ€™s trade indicates that bearish traders
respected the late December main bottom at 1.5832.
The USD JPY traded higher following reports which showed
improvement in the U.S.
economy. Traders took the risk premium off the table and returned to looking at
the improving economic data as the main reason to own the U.S. Dollar versus
the Japanese Yen. The chart indicates that upside momentum could trigger a
rally back to 91.45 over the near-term.
The USD CHF finished lower. Better than expected U.S. economic
reports helped trigger an intra-day short covering rally, but this didnâ€™t
amount to much. Mondayâ€™s trading action shows that conditions have calmed after
last Fridayâ€™s surge to the upside. The weaker Euro versus the Swiss Franc late
last week may have triggered an intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
Traders should continue to monitor the situation in Greece to see if it triggers
another sharp break in the Euro. Look for renewed pressure on the USD CHF if
the Euro continues to strengthen. Based on current conditions, the USD CHF may
break back to 1.0495 before finding support.
Firmer equities, gold, and crude oil helped the USD CAD form
a closing price reversal top. The USD CAD rallied last night, but buyers
stopped short near the December top at 1.0745. Demand for higher risk and
overbought conditions on Monday helped trigger the profit-taking break. The
chart indicates this market is vulnerable to the downside with 1.0472 the next
The AUD USD finished higher after earlier weakness. This
market also posted a daily closing price reversal bottom. This pattern could
help trigger a short-covering rally to .9058 over the near-term. Stronger
demand for higher risk assets, short-covering and oversold conditions also
contributed to the rally.
On February 2nd the Reserve Bank of Australia will
make its monetary policy announcement. There doesnâ€™t appear to be a strong
consensus at this time whether it will raise interest rates. Some traders feel
that the news that China
is tightening its monetary policy may have a negative effect on the Australian
economy. This is leading to speculation the RBA will pass on a rate hike.A 25 basis point hike could be the catalyst
behind a rally.
Demand for higher risk assets and oversold conditions helped
to trigger a short-covering rally in the NZD USD on Monday. The charts indicate
that upside momentum is building which could trigger a short-covering rally
back to .7218. Watch for the New Zealand Dollar to feed off any strong move in
the Aussie Dollar.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium Mon 23 Apr 2018 A All Day- Flash PMIs AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 Apr 2018 AA 01:30 AU- CPI A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- CB Confidence A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales Wed 25 Apr 2018 AA 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 Apr 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- ECB Decision A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 27 Apr 2018 AA 03:00 JP- Bank of Japan A 08:00 DE- Employment A 08:30 GB- GDP A 14:00 US- University of Michigan
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