Equity Markets Finish Higher on Friendly U.S. Economic Data
equity markets rallied late in the session to close above key retracement
points as traders set aside their recent worries and returned from the
sidelines. The markets opened firm then surged to the upside following a better
than expected U.S.
manufacturing report. Good news from the consumer side also helped to support
The March E-mini S&P 500 found support at a .618
retracement price at 1069.50 early Monday morning, but it is the close over the
50% price at 1084.50 which should trigger further upside movement. The charts
indicate a rally to 1107.00 is likely over the near-term.
Greater demand for risk is helped to pressure Treasury
futures. Fear had been driving investors into the safety of the March Treasury
Bonds and March Treasury Notes. Better than expected U.S. economic reports also
contributed to the weakness. These reports are signs that the U.S. economy is
improving moves the Fed closer to hiking interest rates which is bearish for
Treasury prices. The bigger picture still indicates that March Bonds are finding
resistance inside a major retracement zone at 118â€™24 to 119â€™24. A close under
118â€™24 will indicate weakness that could trigger the start of a break back to
The weaker Dollar helped to support April Gold.
Short-traders continue to respect the December main bottom at $1076.50.
Oversold conditions have made this market ripe for a short-covering rally.This is likely to happen if the Dollar weakens
further. Look for the rally to find resistance at $1120.50 to $1131.40.
The upbeat U.S.
manufacturing report helped drive March Crude Oil higher on Monday. Demand for
higher risk also helped support the market. Oversold conditions encouraged
shorts to lighten up their positions as this market approached the December
bottom at 72.53. A weaker Dollar is also likely to help rally crude oil. The
bigger picture still suggests weakness, however, because of low demand and high
The U.S. Dollar lost ground against most of its
counter-parts as better than expected U.S. economic data sent money into higher
risk assets while paring the safety premium built into the Dollar last week.
The Dollar was under pressure from the get-go this morning
following a round of position squaring overnight in the European and Asian
markets. Many traders were lightening up on overbought positions in the Dollar
in anticipation of a choppy two-sided trade ahead of this Fridayâ€™s U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
This morning the Dollar got a little boost following the
release of two better than expected economic reports, but was unable to build
on the small gains. The reports showed a rise in consumer spending in December
and an increase in U.S.
manufacturing data last month. Although the Dollar was down today, there will
be a point in the near future where the Greenback begins to benefit from the
The March Euro traded better throughout the U.S. session
after firm overnight trading. Relaxed concerns about the fiscal crisis in Greece
triggered todayâ€™s short-covering rally. Investors expect to hear more upbeat
news on Wednesday when the European Union releases its official opinion on Greeceâ€™s
efforts to shore up its budget. Upside momentum could take this market back to
the last main bottom at 1.4029. Key support remains 1.3800. This price
represents a major 50% retracement level.
Concerns over a poor economy, growing fiscal deficit and the
election helped to pressure the March British Pound. Traders also remain
pessimistic about how the economy will respond following the ending of the Bank
of Englandâ€™s quantitative easing program. Todayâ€™s trade indicates that bearish
traders respected the late December main bottom at 1.5832.
The March Japanese Yen traded lower following reports which
showed improvement in the U.S.
economy. Traders took the risk premium off the table and returned to looking at
the improving economic data as the main reason to own the U.S. Dollar versus
the Japanese Yen. The chart indicates that upside momentum could trigger a
rally back to 1.0950 over the near-term.
The March Swiss Franc finished higher. Better than expected U.S. economic
reports helped trigger an intra-day sell-off, but this didnâ€™t amount to much.
Mondayâ€™s trading action shows that conditions have calmed after last Fridayâ€™s
surge to the upside. The weaker Euro versus the Swiss Franc late last week may
have triggered an intervention by the Swiss National Bank. Traders should
continue to monitor the situation in Greece to see if it triggers
another sharp break in the Euro. Look for renewed upside pressure on the U.S.
Dollar if the Euro continues to strengthen. Based on current conditions, the
Swiss Franc may rally back to .9645 before finding resistance.
Firmer equities, gold, and crude oil helped the March
Canadian Dollar form a closing price reversal bottom. The Canadian Dollar
weakened last night, but sellers stopped short near the December bottom at
.9303. Demand for higher risk and overbought conditions on Monday helped trigger
todayâ€™s short-covering rally. The chart indicates this market is likely to
retrace its recent break with .9553 the next likely target.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
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