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Tuesday February 2, 2010 - 10:18:03 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/02/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis February 2,
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm
Traders of the US await the publication of the ADP
National Employment Report. The report measures the monthly change of nonfarm
private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data
that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2
days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to
the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be
A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -40.00%, up
from the previous -84.00%.
After the issuance of the last report, the Euro did not
break any of the levels specified in the report. Looking at the hourly chart, we
can see that the Euro, and before breaking 1.4014 last week, has stopped at the
falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time, which makes this line one that
deserves attention. And now, we have yet another reason to pay attention to this
line, which is the forth touch. The downtrend from 1.4577 will be dominant as
long as we are below this line, which is currently at 1.3933, thatâ€™s why this
will be resistance of the day. While the support is at short term Fibonacci
1.3885, and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for today.
Breaking resistance 1.3933 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from
1.4577, targeting 1.4062 first, then ideal targets start at 1.4128. On the other
hand, breaking support at 1.3885 means that we will test the important 1.3824,
and if broken, targets start at 1.3747.
important intraday low.
â€¢ 1.3824: Dec 19th 2008 important low.
Jun 16th low.
â€¢ 1.3933: the falling trend line from
1.4554 on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from
â€¢ 1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from
Dollar-Yen broke the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 90.36, but stopped in the middle of
the road to the suggested target, at 90.92. This indicates that the bounce we
talked about still has the momentum needed to go on. This fine bounce may manage
to capitalize on the break of 90.36 to go higher. If the Dollar is meant to
achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break
support at 90.30. And between 90.89 & 90.30, we will await a break of either
of them to set the direction for the short term. If we break the resistance
90.89, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75,
with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support
90.30, we will target 89.57 and if broken we will be going back to the same
trend line that provided last weekâ€™s support, which is currently at
â€¢ 90.30: the rising trend line from 89.20 on
the hourly chart.
â€¢ 89.57: Jan 29th low.
â€¢ 88.48: the support of the
falling trend line from 90.58.
â€¢ 90.89: important
â€¢ 91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
on currency trading see
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of
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to change at any time.
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