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Tuesday February 2, 2010 - 11:15:27 GMT
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European Market Update: Rising risk appetite continues to simmer following US ISM data on Monday; Spanish unemployment rises more than expected to remind the headwinds of economic recovery remain

Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:54:05 AM

 European Market Update: Rising risk appetite continues to simmer following US ISM data on Monday; Spanish unemployment rises more than expected to remind the headwinds of economic recovery remain


- (RU) Russia Jan Reserve Fund: $59.9B v $60.5B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $90.6B v $91.6B prior
- (SZ) Swiss Jan SECO Consumer Confidence: -7 v -10e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (GE) Germany Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Nov Final Trade Balance: €409.5M v -€411.3M prior
- (SP) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: 124.9K v 102.5Ke
- (SA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle sales: +12.0% v -13.1% prior
- (GE) German Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y -4.2% - VDIK
- (UK) Jan Construction PMI: 48.6 v 47.0e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Dec PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -3.0%e

- In equities: European bourses opened today's session mixed before sliding into negative territory through 30 minutes of trade. Strength from the Asian trading session, in which the key macro story was a surprise unchanged call out of the RBA, could not initially support European markets. Commentary and results from the session highlight earning drove the early weakness. BP [BP.UK] reported weaker than expected performance in its refining sector and overall net figures. Improved production levels and rising energy prices could not offset the midstream margin levels. BP's CEO Hayward admitted to this weakness and reiterated his expectation for a slow recovery in both the
US and EU. Weakness in BP spread to the broader energy sector with all the Euro majors trading down. Into 4:00EST, European data and tech names spurred a trading range recovery that took a 5:00EST Euro-zone PPI reading by breaking into positive territory. In the market recovery, tech, miners and financials outperformed. The upward rotation became a broader sentiment shift into 5:30EST as markets churned higher on strong volume. Following a dismal month of January, European equity markets are on a two consecutive session positive run.

Individual equities: BP [BP.UK]: Reports Q4 Net $4.3B v $4.7Be, Rev $70.9B v $69Be, maintains quarterly dividend at $0.14/share. || Munich Re [MUV2.GE]: Reports Prelim Q4 Net €780M v €611Me, Rev €10.4B v €9.7B y/y; plans FY09 dividend of €5.75/share (prior €5.50). || Deutsche Euroshop [DEQ.GE]: Raised €123M (14% of market cap) through secondary placement of 6.3M shares. ||

- Speakers: OECD released a report on
China. The agency called for more Yuan flexibility and PBoC should rely more on interest rates it its monetary policy tool over time. It stated that the real exchange rate rise was needed for domestic rebalancing and that the current China forex regime limited the PBOC's policy options. China should raise interest rates in 2010 and the move should come when the CPI move above the 2.25% deposit rate. The OECD maintained China 2010 GDP growth forecast at 10.2% and maintains 2011 GDP view at 9.3%. It stated that China's Economy was unlikely to overheat near term due to its spare capacity. It raised China 2010 CPI forecast to +1.8% from +0.1% prior view and raised 2011 CPI forecast to +2.0% from +1.0 prior. Inflation risks are coming up in a way that's a social concern. China's recent moves to tackle inflation risks were welcomed. The situation would have to be monitored closely. China needed to continue its fiscal deficit to keep local demand strong and that much slower public spending might widen China's Current Account surplus *** France Official stated that forex would be a topic at the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada. The meeting would focus on the global economic outlook. The official noted that G7 might not issue final communiqu***Sweden Riksbank's Ingves: Pressure on Baltic currency has declined amid sign that worst of recession in region was over. He did note that the. number of Baltic loan defaults was rising rapidly ***Greece PM Papandreou reiterated that the credibility gap was the essential problem; Greece needs fair and just tax system. Greece would apply the Stability Pact to "the letter" presented to the EU and was determined to apply budget plans *** Japan Fin Min Kan expected the main topic s at the upcoming G7 to be centered on the Obama US financial regulation reform and the global economy. He added that the China's Yuan might be discussed. Kan noted that he would explain Japan's policy action and rational at G7. Likely to focus on exchange of ideas over compiling a document. Desirable that China's economy grows at a steady pace *** German HDE Retailers Association stated that its outlook for 2010 saw retail sales declining by 0.5% from €329.1B level seen in 2009 ***
Denmark Fin Min commented that it saw no more signs of bank support needed, though asks parliament to authorize debt framework expansion to DKK2.0T from DKK950B prior *** France Budget Min: No particular concern over its sovereign debt ratings; Forecasts Debt to
GDP ratio at 86.1% in 2011 *** France Budget Min Worth stated that he had no particular concerns over France's sovereign debt ratings; Forecasts Debt to GDP ratio at 86.1% in 2011 *** ECB's Concstancio commented that he remained relatively pessimistic over short-term prospects for the Portuguese economy and added there was a imperative need to reduce the country's budget deficit. He noted that European growth would be week during the next few years. New and difficult spending cut measures are needed.

- Currencies: The USD continued to consolidate against the Euro and CHF pairs as rising risk appetite aided equity markets. The strong US ISM manufacturing data from Monday helped overseas markets higher (the series grew at its fastest pace in January since August 2004). The
GBP was softer throughout the European morning as some concern about a possible hung parliament could hamper the U.K. fiscal position and increase market uncertainty about the next Parliament's ability to deal with the budget deficit. The G7 summit has growing speculation the Chinese Yuan currency might be the main menu item. Also G-7 finance ministers and central bankers might break with tradition and choose not to release a statement on the global economy and currencies. It should be noted that the G20 has emerge as the main vehicle to express global viewpoints but perhaps G7 wants to remind the financial world that they remain a force to content with.

- Fixed Income: Govt bonds are generally softer this morning in
Europe as socks enjoy a modest rally. Cross market spreads remain within recent ranges and yields are higher with no curve plays to speak of.
- Peripheralsspreads have narrowed thanks to improved risk appetite. The Greek 10yr has shed another 8bps to trade at Bunds+334bps, all eyes on EU commission tomorrow who will rule on Greece's stability plan
- In the first post QE auction of the year the UK sold £3.75B in off the run 2 1/2 year Gilts with a strong bid-to-cover of 3.12x. March Gilts rallied 10 ticks in the immediate aftermath of the auction, but have given back those gains as we go to press.

Commodities: South Africa Mining Min Shabangu: Nationalization of mines is not a government policy but debate is healthy

-Geo/political: Geo/political: Bickering between the
US and China in relation to a$6.4B Taiwan arms deal has continued. China has stated that a potential meeting between the Dalai Lama and US Pres Obama would further disrupt Sino-US, and regional relations. China called off bi-lateral meetings with both Taiwan and France in 2009 following meetings with the exiled Tibetan leader. Regarding potential sanctions against US firms, executives for Boeing speaking at the Singapore air show deflected comments, stating the issues was squarely a government v government exchange. Tensions continue to rise in Sri Lanka following last week's Presidential election. Re-elected Pres Rajapakse has moved to sack up to 12 senior military officials seen as loyal backers of opposition candidate Fonseka. The government has stated that the officers breached discipline rules by siding with Fonseka openly. Opposition parties have threatened demonstrations against what they see as continued persecution. Ahead of a Feb 7 Presidential run-off vote in Ukraine, candidate Yulia Tymoshenko held a solo televised debate as her rival Viktor Yanukovich declined to attend. Tymoshenko used the 1.5 hour time slot to deliver a no-holds bared personal and political attack. In the first round of voting on Jan 17, Yanukovich won approx 31.5% of the vote with Tymoshenko taking 27.2%.

-Energy: Russia's January energy production saw oil production at 10.04M bpd (unchanged m/m and gas production at 63.9B cm, up 2.3% m/m

In the papers: WSJ notes that SNB will look for more signs of economic strength before halting attempts to curb CHF strength. Article noted that given the small size of its domestic market (just 7.5 M residents) the country's economic fortunes hinge on exports. A strong franc puts a strain on exporters, and in times of economic stress, politicians and entrepreneurs are traditionally quick to call on the SNB to weaken the local currency. Article points out the numerous SNB currency intervention since March 2009 and has since effectively making foreign exchange management a mainstay of monetary policy. The SNB had already cut its key interest rate to a record low 0.25%, thereby depriving itself of the ability to influence the currency with more cuts. Under the new leadership of Philipp Hildebrand, who took charge of the central bank last month, the SNB has renewed its pledge to prevent any excessive strengthening of the franc

- Spain's unemployment worse than expectations
- Australia's decision to leave its rates on hold today surprises markets .
- Growing speculation that
China's currency policy to headline G7 this weekend in Canada.
- Japan Post Bank urged to diversify holdings into corporate bonds and US Treasuries.
- HKMA warns of hot money invested in China IPOs could exit at any time.

***Looking Ahead:
- (PD) Poland Dec Budget Level (PLN): No est v -498.2M prior; Budget Level YTD: % v -24.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Jan Consumer Prices M/M: % v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 8.8% prior; CPI YTD:
- (RU) Russia Jan Core CPI M/M: % v 0.4% prior; Core CPI YTD: %
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:30 (SI) Singapore Purchasing mangers Index: No est v 53.3 prior; Electronic Sector Index: No est v 52.9 prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Chain Store sales
- 10:00 (US) Dec Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.0%e v -16.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 19.3% prior
- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Jan 31st: -45e v -48 prior
- 17:00 (US) Jan Total Vehicle sales: 10.90Me v 11.23M prior



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