Tuesday February 2, 2010 - 15:52:06 GMT
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FXTimes: Daily Technical Update AUD/USD Assessing Event Risk
Daily Technical Update
February 2, 2010
AUD/USD Assessing Event Risk
- Daily and Weekly: The AUD/USD has been in a
downtrend in the short intermediate term and is threatening to extend
the decline further. This scenario requires a decline pass the previous
support at the 0.8720 area. A break below establishes a double top, and
a minimal target to 0.8100 which would coincidently test both the MA50
and then the MA200 (in weekly).
- The daily chart showed a â€śpiercing pattern in the first session of
this week. But this possible reversal signal was followed by an RBA
announcement that somewhat surprised expectations. Instead of
indicating further increase in interest rate, it held at 3.75%. The
market followed with a slide of the AUD/USD.
- If todayâ€™s bearish candle closes above the mid-way point of the
previous day, it indicates that the bearish reaction may have been
temporary and weak â€“ and that the market may follow through the
piercing pattern eventually with a rally in the short-term.
- We can see in the Daily time-frame that the 89.50 powerline may be
resistance, so a break above may be a bullish signal. A crossover and
turn above 20 in the stochastic would help confirm as well.
- 4H: This outlook however, requires some
near/short-term reversal to take place. In the 4H time-frame, we see
nothing except a bullish divergence with stochastic. A break above the
declining trendline and establishing higher low/top will be good
signals for a reversal.
- Keep the bearish outlook open as well. If the market breaks below
87.20-87.00, a rally should be cautioned and may be just a pullback.
Commodity Trading Advisor
Information and opinions contained in this report are for
educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources
believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or
completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or
damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of
or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.
Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is
acting as a counterparty to its clientsâ€™ transactions and as a result,
CMSâ€™ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as
the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate
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not be suitable for all investors.
All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
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