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Wednesday February 3, 2010 - 09:48:02 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/02/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis February 3, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Ivey PMI
Canadian traders anticipate the publication of the Ivey Purchasing
Manager's Index (PMI) tomorrow, February 4. The index measures the
activity level of purchasing managers in Canada.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50
indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the
manufacturing section and production growth in Canada.
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have
early access to data about their companyâ€™s performance, which can be a
leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 52.00
versus a past lower reading of 48.40.
The Euro broke the resistance 1.3933, and although the rising move did
not reach 50 pips, but closing above it indicates that this is a valid
break, and makes us believe that the short term down trend is over.
This break faces a difficult resistance at Mondayâ€™s top 1.3985, and if
this break is serious, we should see a break for this resistance
specifically. Breaking resistance 1.3985 will initiate a correction for
the whole drop from 1.4577, targeting 1.4062 first, then ideal targets
start at 1.4128. On the other hand, support is provided by the rising
trend line from Mondayâ€™s bottom 1.3851, which is currently at 1.3930.
Breaking this support means that we will test the important 1.3824, and
if broken, targets start at 1.3747.
â€¢ 1.3930: the rising trend line from this weekâ€™s low on intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.3851: this weekâ€™s low so far.
â€¢ 1.3747: Jun 16th low.
â€¢ 1.3985: Jan 29th high.
â€¢ 1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
â€¢ 1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
Dollar-Yen traded in a very tight range, without breaking support or
resistance from the report, and we are still watching this bounce,
which started to lose momentum. This fine bounce may manage to
capitalize on the break of 90.36 to go higher, going through the
resistance 90.79. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from
this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 90.34
where the SMA100 moving average is. And between 90.79 & 90.34, we
will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short
term. If we break the resistance 90.79, the price will already be in a
correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44
& 91.98. In case of a break of the support 90.34, we will target
89.57 and if broken we will be going back to the same trend line that
provided last weekâ€™s support, which is currently at 88.48.
â€¢ 90.34: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 89.57: Jan 29th low.
â€¢ 88.48: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
â€¢ 90.79: important intraday top.
â€¢ 91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
â€¢ 91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on currency trading see ForexPros.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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