An increase in demand for risk is putting pressure on the
U.S. Dollar overnight. Tensions have been easing all week on speculation the
European Union will accept the latest proposal by Greece to shore up its budget
deficit. In addition, talk is circulating that the E.U. and the International
Monetary Fund are likely to rescue Greece should the situation warrant
such moves.Asian traders like the news
and are boosting demand for higher risk assets and higher yielding currencies.
Thin trading conditions continue to highlight the Forex
markets ahead of tomorrowâ€™s Bank of England and European Central Bank policy
announcements. Trading is expected to continue to be muted following these two
central bank meetings as traders will then begin adjusting positions in front
of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
Because of the light trade, todayâ€™s U.S. economic
reports are likely to have greater impact on the Forex markets. Todayâ€™s ADP
Employment Report is expected to show a loss of 30,000 jobs following a decline
of 84,000 in December.This report will
be followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Traders will be looking for
positive momentum from this report. The preliminary guess is for a figure of
51. This will put this index above the key 50 area.
Other potential market moving reports are the Treasury
refunding announcement and the weekly petroleum report. Both reports could
trigger movement in the Forex markets if they are out of line with
expectations. Interest sensitive markets will react to the refunding
announcement. The Canadian Dollar is likely to react to the crude oil figure.
The EUR USD is trading higher overnight. Traders have been
supporting this market since news broke that Greece had reached a budget solution.
Today, the European Union will release its opinion on Greeceâ€™s budget
proposal. In addition, traders are reacting positively to the strong
possibility the IMF will rescue the Greek economy if necessary. On Thursday,
the European Central Bank is expected to announce that interest rates will
Technically, a new short-term range has been formed at
1.4194 to 1.3852. Last night, this market stopped rallying at 50% of this range
at 1.4023. Overcoming this level could trigger a further rally to 1.4063.
The GBP USD spiked to the upside last night on the news that
consumer confidence rose more than expected. Speculators have also been driving
this market higher on the notion that the Bank of England members will provide
a more hawkish opinion on the economy in tomorrowâ€™s policy statement.
Technically, the British Pound started higher, but pulled
back. The charts indicate that 1.6153 is the next upside target. 1.5960 is
pegged as a possible downside target.
The USD JPY is trading mixed in light trading. Some traders
expect this pair to rally on increased demand for higher yielding currencies.
Others are looking for more downside pressure on speculation the Bank of Japan
is unlikely to intervene to prevent the Yen from appreciating. The next upside
target is 91.45. On the downside, this pair could find support at 90.03. What
this market wants is clarity at this time.
The strengthening Euro is taking the pressure off the Swiss
National Bank to intervene. This is contributing to the weakness in the USD
CHF. The short-term range is 1.0367 to 1.0642. Last nightâ€™s test of 50% of this
range at 1.0504 encouraged profit-taking and led to a short covering rally.
Traders will be watching the news from the European Union today regarding the Greece budget
situation. Any positive news which drives the Euro higher is likely to be
bullish for the Swiss Franc.
Higher stock, gold and crude oil prices should continue to
support the Canadian Dollar. Gold, however, is trading inside of a retracement
zone which could limit losses in the USD CAD.Todayâ€™s crude oil inventory report is expected to show a rise which
could pressure oil prices. The USD CAD is trading tentatively this morning as
traders await this report. Technically, the main range is 1.0224 to 1.0720. The
first downside target today is uptrending Gann angle support at 1.0504.
Short-term oversold conditions could drive this market back up to 1.0633.
Demand for higher risk assets is helping to support the NZD
USD. Trader appetite for risk is up in Asia.
This is expected to spillover to the U.S. markets if stock prices
continue to rise. A new main range has been formed at .7442 to .6995. This
makes .7281 a potential upside target, however, a downtrending Gann angle at
.7162 may provide some resistance today. A failure to follow-through to the
upside could trigger a correction back to .7073.
The AUD USD is holding steady to better following
yesterdayâ€™s volatile trade. Although traders do not seem to want to
aggressively trade the long side of this market, they arenâ€™t selling it either.
Now that the negative news is out of the way, it looks as if traders may try to
build a support base. If upside momentum can build, then this market may
retrace back to .9055 over the medium term.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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