Stocks Trading Flat Ahead of ADP Employment Report
stocks markets are trading flat ahead of this morningâ€™s ADP Employment Report.
Expectations are for this report to show that 30,000 jobs were lost during the
last month. This is better than the 84,000 lost in December. Todayâ€™s ISM
Non-Manufacturing Index Report should be a market mover today. Traders are
looking for this index to cross over the important 50 barrier. A number higher
than 50 indicates upside momentum.
The March E-mini S&P 500 is on target to test a major
retracement zone at 1109.25 to 1118.25. A retracement to 1084.00 must hold if
tested. The March E-mini Dow has an upside target of 10341. Look for support on
a pullback to 10130. The March E-mini NASDAQ is lagging behind the two other markets.
This markets needs to regain 1774.50 to show strength.
April Gold surged overnight to $1126.40 before backing down.
This price was inside of a retracement zone at $1120.50 to $1131.40. A weaker
Dollar is necessary for this market to continue its rise. If the Dollar
strengthens, then look for a pullback to $1100.40.
March Treasury Bonds are under pressure overnight as traders
await todayâ€™s ADP Report and the Treasury refunding announcement. A good
employment number will pressure bonds along with the news that more supply is
hitting the market. The bigger picture still indicates that March Bonds are finding
resistance inside a major retracement zone at 118â€™24 to 119â€™24. Continuing to close
under 118â€™24 indicates weakness that could trigger a break back to 116â€™06.
Demand for higher yielding assets and a weaker Dollar is helping
to support March Crude Oil. Todayâ€™s petroleum inventory report should be a
market mover. Traders are looking for an increase in supply, but could be
surprised because of the recent pick-up in manufacturing. A new main range at
84.45 to 72.43 has been formed which could trigger a retracement to 78.44.
An increase in demand for risk is putting pressure on the
U.S. Dollar overnight. Tensions have been easing all week on speculation the
European Union will accept the latest proposal by Greece to shore up its budget
deficit. In addition, talk is circulating that the E.U. and the International
Monetary Fund are likely to rescue Greece should the situation warrant
such moves.Asian traders like the news
and are boosting demand for higher risk assets and higher yielding currencies.
Thin trading conditions continue to highlight the Forex
markets ahead of tomorrowâ€™s Bank of England and European Central Bank policy
announcements. Trading is expected to continue to be muted following these two
central bank meetings as traders will then begin adjusting positions in front
of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
Because of the light trade, todayâ€™s U.S. economic reports are likely to
have greater impact on the Forex markets. Todayâ€™s ADP Employment Report is
expected to show a loss of 30,000 jobs following a decline of 84,000 in
December.This report will be followed
by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Traders will be looking for positive momentum
from this report. The preliminary guess is for a figure of 51. This will put
this index above the key 50 area.
Other potential market moving reports are the Treasury
refunding announcement and the weekly petroleum report. Both reports could
trigger movement in the Forex markets if they are out of line with
expectations. Interest sensitive markets will react to the refunding
announcement. The Canadian Dollar is likely to react to the crude oil figure.
The March Euro is trading higher overnight. Traders have
been supporting this market since news broke that Greece had reached a budget
solution. Today, the European Union will release its opinion on Greeceâ€™s
budget proposal. In addition, traders are reacting positively to the strong
possibility the IMF will rescue the Greek economy if necessary. On Thursday,
the European Central Bank is expected to announce that interest rates will
Technically, a new short-term range has been formed at
1.4194 to 1.3852. Last night, this market stopped rallying at 50% of this range
at 1.4023. Overcoming this level could trigger a further rally to 1.4063.
The March British Pound spiked to the upside last night on
the news that U.K.
consumer confidence rose more than expected. Speculators have also been driving
this market higher on the notion that the Bank of England members will provide
a more hawkish opinion on the economy in tomorrowâ€™s policy statement.
Technically, the British Pound started higher, but pulled
back. The charts indicate that 1.6153 is the next upside target. 1.5960 is
pegged as a possible downside target.
The March Japanese Yen is trading mixed in light trading.
Some traders expect this pair to rally on increased demand for higher yielding
currencies. Others are looking for more downside pressure on speculation the
Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene to prevent the Yen from appreciating.
The next upside target is 1.1108. On the downside, this pair could find support
at 1.0950. What this market wants is clarity at this time.
The strengthening Euro is taking the pressure off the Swiss
National Bank to intervene. This is contributing to the strength in the March
Swiss Franc. The short-term range is .9647 to .9397. Last nightâ€™s test of 50%
of this range at .9522 encouraged profit-taking and led to a small overnight
break. Traders will be watching the news from the European Union today
regarding the Greece
budget situation. Any positive news which drives the Euro higher is likely to
be bullish for the Swiss Franc.
Higher stock, gold and crude oil prices should continue to
support the Canadian Dollar. Gold, however, is trading inside of a retracement
zone which could limit gains. Todayâ€™s crude oil inventory report is expected to
show a rise which could pressure oil prices. The March Canadian Dollar is
trading tentatively this morning as traders await this report. Technically, the
main range is .9780 to .9326. The first upside target today is downtrending
Gann angle resistance at .9520. Short-term overbought conditions could drive
this market back down to .9405.
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Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
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