economic reports drove traders out of risky assets, putting pressure on both
gold and crude oil. April Gold surged overnight to $1126.40 before backing
down. This price was inside of a retracement zone at $1120.50 to $1131.40. The stronger
Dollar encouraged traders to dump higher risk assets which weakened precious
metals. The charts indicate this market could break back to $1100.40 over the
The stronger Dollar helped to put pressure on commodities
including March Crude Oil. This morning, the U.S. Department of Energy reported
that crude inventories rose 2.3 million barrels last week. This increase in
supply put further pressure on crude oil. The short-term chart indicates a
break to 75.29 to 74.63 is likely.
The improvement in the U.S. economy helped to pressure
Treasury futures. March Bonds broke sharply lower as the prospects for an
interest rate hike rose following the release of a better than expected ADP
Employment Report and a favorable ISM Non-Manufacturing Index report.Traders are now factoring in the possibility
that Fridayâ€™s Employment Report will show a rise in jobs. The charts indicate a
break to 116â€™06 is likely over the near term.
stock markets had a volatile trading session. The early break was triggered by
economic data which drove traders out of higher risk assets. A recovery rally took
place about mid-session, but trading was too light to drive the indices higher
for the day. The March E-mini S&P 500 continues to find major support at
1084.00. Trading could be light and directionless ahead of Fridayâ€™s U.S. jobs data.
The charts, however, indicate that 1109.25 is a potential upside target.
Stronger economic data this morning helped drive shorts out
of the Dollar and triggered a surge to the upside which put the U.S. Dollar
Index in a position to post a six-month high.
Early in todayâ€™s trading session, the Dollar was trading
lower as appetite for risk drove up demand for higher yielding assets. Trading
was once again subdued due to tomorrowâ€™s European Central Bank and Bank of
England announcements. Many major players are also trading lighter ahead of the
jobs report on Friday, February 5th.
This morningâ€™s ADP Employment Report showed that fewer jobs
were lost during January. This lent credibility to the notion that the economy
is improving and that Fridayâ€™s Non-Farm Payrolls Report may actually show
positive jobs growth. Traders are now feeling more confident about the economy.
Some are speculating that Fridayâ€™s jobs report may actually show positive
In another report, Januaryâ€™s ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
crossed the 50 level indicating that momentum was turning to the upside.Following the release of these reports,
traders reversed the course of the Dollar, indicating that investors were
shifting their focus away from risk and on improvement in the U.S. economic outlook. Global
currency markets sold off as demand dropped for higher yielding currencies.
Both reports supported the Dollar because they provide the Fed with more
information needed to begin raising interest rates.
The March Euro reversed course after testing a minor 50%
retracement level at 1.4023. Todayâ€™s weakness is a pure economic play. The
release of upbeat U.S.
reports supports calls for a strengthening economy. News that the European
Union accepted the proposed budget deficit solution from Greece helped give the Euro an
intraday boost, but concerns remain, therefore, the gains were unable to take
hold. The recent rise in the Euro was attributed to easing tensions in Greece.
Problems still remain in Portugal
which could limit the Euros upside potential. On Thursday, the European Central
Bank is expected to announce that interest rates will remain steady at 1%.
The March British Pound spiked to the upside last night on
the news that U.K. consumer
confidence had risen more than expected, but backed down when U.K. services data failed to meet
expectations. These stories provided more evidence that the Bank of England will
likely leave its quantitative easing program intact or perhaps increase or
Speculators had been driving this market higher on the
notion that the Bank of England members will provide a more hawkish opinion on
the economy in tomorrowâ€™s policy statement. Todayâ€™s stronger U.S. economic reports put pressure
on the British Pound. Traders turned bearish once they realized the U.S.
economy was on a faster pace toward recovery.
The March Japanese Yen fell sharply lower after the release
of friendly U.S.
economic reports. Improvements in U.S.
jobs and non-manufacturing sector encouraged traders to focus more on the
economy rather than the weaker Japanese economy.
The stronger U.S.
economy and the weaker Euro helped put pressure on the Swiss Franc, triggering
a break in the March Swiss Franc. Look for talk of intervention by the Swiss
National Bank, if the Swiss Franc appreciates too much versus the Euro.
The March Canadian Dollar finished sharply lower
following a sell-off in commodities, led by weaker gold and crude oil. Falling
demand for higher yielding assets also put pressure on U.S. equity markets. The drop in
crude and gold could put pressure on the Canadian economy which relies on those
to key export markets.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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