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Thursday February 4, 2010 - 10:09:52 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 4,
Fundamental Analysis: Unemployment
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the unemployment
rate tomorrow, February 5. It measures the percentage of the total labor force
that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the
US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage
is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as
positive for the USD. Analysts predict no change in the future reading, a rate
The Euro stopped
accurately at Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from 1.4192, which is
at 1.4022 (yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.4025), before a downfall toppled it more than
150 pips in 16 hours. As we always say, an accurate stop at an important
Fibonacci level (i.e. the 50% or the 61.8%) is an indication of reversal. And in
this case it indicates a reversal in short term trend from an uptrend to a
downtrend. Thus, we find that analysis supporting more drop and drifting away
from yesterdayâ€™s top, and looking for new targets below this weekâ€™s low 1.3851.
Short term support is at 1.3865, and breaking it would mean we are heading to
test the important 1.3824, and in case it is broken 1.3747 will be an immediate
first modest target, and we expect bigger targets on the short term. While the
resistance is at 1.3963, and only breaking this important level would let us
dump our negative outlook for the short term. In case this break actually
happens, the targets will be the same as they were yesterday 1.4062 &
â€˘ 1.3865: Asian session low.
â€˘ 1.3824: Dec
19th 2008 low.
â€˘ 1.3747: Jun 16th low.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
â€˘ 1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for
the last drop from 1.4192.
â€˘ 1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from
Before reaching 90, the
Dollar-Yen found support at 90.06, and created an uprising that took it to 91
for the first time in two weeks. This move is still inside the â€śadjustedâ€ť rising
channel on the hourly chart. It is a slowly rising channel, with its top close
to the resistance 91.63, and its bottom is close to the support 90.30. If the
price holds inside this channel, we expect the slow rise to continue towards the
important short term Fibonacci resistance levels. Todayâ€™s support is at 90.52,
and breaking it means that the odds of breaking the bottom of the channel are
huge. Such a break would target the important 89.79, and then 88.91. In case
trading inside this channel continues, this gradual rising will target a test of
the nearby resistance 91.03 once again, and if broken the targets would be short
term Fibonacci levels, where the 50% retracement is at 91.44 & the 61.8% is
at 91.98, and would play as first and second targets for this break, in case it
â€˘ 90.52: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 89.79: Jan 21st low.
â€˘ 88.91: Dec 17th
â€˘ 91.03: important intraday top.
Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
â€˘ 91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
whole drop from 93.75.
Forex Trading Analysis written by
Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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