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Thursday February 4, 2010 - 10:09:52 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/02/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis February 4, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: Unemployment Rate

Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the unemployment rate tomorrow, February 5. It measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD. Analysts predict no change in the future reading, a rate of 10.00%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro stopped accurately at Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from 1.4192, which is at 1.4022 (yesterday’s high was 1.4025), before a downfall toppled it more than 150 pips in 16 hours. As we always say, an accurate stop at an important Fibonacci level (i.e. the 50% or the 61.8%) is an indication of reversal. And in this case it indicates a reversal in short term trend from an uptrend to a downtrend. Thus, we find that analysis supporting more drop and drifting away from yesterday’s top, and looking for new targets below this week’s low 1.3851. Short term support is at 1.3865, and breaking it would mean we are heading to test the important 1.3824, and in case it is broken 1.3747 will be an immediate first modest target, and we expect bigger targets on the short term. While the resistance is at 1.3963, and only breaking this important level would let us dump our negative outlook for the short term. In case this break actually happens, the targets will be the same as they were yesterday 1.4062 & 1.4128.

Support:
• 1.3865: Asian session low.
• 1.3824: Dec 19th 2008 low.
• 1.3747: Jun 16th low.

Resistance:
• 1.3963: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
• 1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
• 1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.

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USD/JPY

Before reaching 90, the Dollar-Yen found support at 90.06, and created an uprising that took it to 91 for the first time in two weeks. This move is still inside the “adjusted” rising channel on the hourly chart. It is a slowly rising channel, with its top close to the resistance 91.63, and its bottom is close to the support 90.30. If the price holds inside this channel, we expect the slow rise to continue towards the important short term Fibonacci resistance levels. Today’s support is at 90.52, and breaking it means that the odds of breaking the bottom of the channel are huge. Such a break would target the important 89.79, and then 88.91. In case trading inside this channel continues, this gradual rising will target a test of the nearby resistance 91.03 once again, and if broken the targets would be short term Fibonacci levels, where the 50% retracement is at 91.44 & the 61.8% is at 91.98, and would play as first and second targets for this break, in case it happens.

Support:
• 90.52: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 89.79: Jan 21st low.
• 88.91: Dec 17th low.

Resistance:
• 91.03: important intraday top.
• 91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

For information on
currency trading see ForexPros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

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