Commodity and stock markets are trading lower overnight as
risk aversion is driving investors toward safer, lower-yielding assets. U.S. economic
reports may have to take a backseat today as traders express their concerns
with growing European sovereign debt issues by selling off higher risk
assets.Trading may be volatile today as
thin conditions ahead of tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report continue to
be the highlight.
The key level to watch in the March E-mini S&P 500 is
1084.50. Holding this level could attract buyers which will limit losses. A
failure to build support at this level is likely to pressure this market
further with 1069.50 the next downside target.
March Treasury Bonds are trading higher. This market could
see a sharp rise to the upside if European debt worries continue to pressure
equity markets. Traders may be encouraged to buy Treasury Bonds and Notes for
safety. A medium-term view indicates that 118â€™24 is resistance. The developing
downtrend pegs 116â€™06 as the next downside target.
The stronger Dollar is pressuring April Gold. Selling
pressure has put this market in a position to test a key retracement level at
$1101.40. Downside momentum could trigger an even harder break to $1094.30.
Yesterdayâ€™s bearish crude oil inventory report along with a
drop in demand for higher risk assets is pressuring March Crude Oil overnight.
The charts indicate that 75.29 to 74.63 are the next downside targets.
The Dollar is trading higher versus all major currencies
except the Yen. Investor concerns about the sovereign debt woes in Greece
will simply not go away. Traders are taking protection overnight in the Dollar
and the Japanese Yen.
The March Euro is heading lower, pressured by concerns that
despite the proposal of a new budget plan, Greece lacks the means to deal with
its deficit issues on its own. Fears are also being raised that the fiscal
problems in Greece
are not isolated and may spread throughout the Euro Region should it default on
This morning the European Central Bank will make its
monetary policy announcement. The consensus says that interest rates will
remain at the historically low 1% level. The focus will be on ECB President
Trichetâ€™s press conference. Although he will discuss the Euro Zone economic
situation as usual, he will most likely be peppered with questions regarding
the growing concerns about Greece.
Traders are anticipating that he will warn other countries about getting their
budgets in order. In addition, he will address the possibility that the ECB or
the European Union will come to the rescue of Greece. This is unlikely, however,
because they both lack the authority to enact such a move. It may take action
from the International Monetary Fund to avoid a catastrophic collapse.
Adding further to the Euroâ€™s woes was the news that German
Factory Orders plunged 2.3%. This report coupled with the recent string of good
U.S. economic reports
signals that the global recovery may be uneven with the U.S. surging while Europe
remains stagnate. Despite the European economic problems, the main issues
facing the Euro remain the Greece
situation and debt relief.
The Bank of England is expected to announce this morning
that interest rates will remain at a historically low level. The key to the
direction of the March British Pound will be whether BoE members vote to
continue purchasing assets in an effort to support the economy. The poor
showing in the last quarterly GDP report and softening money supply growth are
two reasons why the BoE may decide to expand or extend its quantitative easing
program. The recent performance in the economy shows that the U.K. stimulus programs have been a
failure. Some may argue that expanding the program will be inflationary as
evidenced by the most recent spike in U.K. consumer inflation. This could
cause a split vote amongst BoE officials.
The March Japanese Yen is rallying this morning as investors
seek safety in lower yielding assets over concerns about the possibility of
sovereign debt default. The Japanese Yen tends to strengthen during economic
turmoil and uncertainty. Look for this pair to be the risk sentiment indicator
today. As long as the fear of default exists, the Yen should continue to
appreciate. At this time, the Bank of Japan has no plans to halt the rise in
its currency. This could help fuel a steep rally in the Japanese Yen over the
The stronger Dollar is pressuring demand for commodities,
namely gold and crude oil. This is helping to pressure the Canadian Dollar.
Upside momentum is building which could send the March Canadian Dollar back to
the last main bottom at .9326 rather quickly.
The weakening Euro has once again raised fears the Swiss
National Bank may intervene to prevent the Swiss Franc from appreciating too
much versus the Euro. This is helping to pressure the March Swiss Franc this
morning. The Swiss Franc is in a position to test last weekâ€™s low at
.9397.This is where this pair stopped
last week following an intervention by the SNB.
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