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Friday February 5, 2010 - 11:10:14 GMT
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European Market Update: Credibility and confidence eludes European Peripherals on respective fiscal outlooks; Risk aversion remains high ahead of US payroll report

Friday, February 05, 2010 5:47:24 AM

 European Market Update: Credibility and confidence eludes European Peripherals on respective fiscal outlooks; Risk aversion remains high ahead of US payroll report


- (RU) Russia Jan Official Reserves Assets:$435.8B v $433.5Be
- (FI) Finland Nov GDP: -7.4% v -5.4%e
- (FR) France Dec Trade Balance: -€4.3B v -€4.3Be; Central Gov't Balance: -€138.0B v -€143.3B prior
- (TT) Taiwan Jan CPI Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e; CPI WDA Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.6%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Industrial Output M/M: -5.7% v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v 5.0%e
- (SP) Spain Dec Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -1.5% v -4.0% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.3%e
- (DE) Denmark Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v 1.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: 1.8% v 3.1% prior
- (SW) Sweden Jan Budget Balance (SEK): +19.9B v -117.5B prior
- (AS) Austria Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.3% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v -1.1% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -1.5%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -6.5% v -4.3% prior
- (IC) Iceland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 10.0B v 7.0B prior
- (UK) Jan PPI Input M/M: 2.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 6.5%e
- (UK) Jan PPI Output M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e
- (UK) Jan PPI Output Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e
- (IT) Jan Preliminary CPI (Incl tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Dec Trade Balance (MYR): 12.1B v 9.4B; Exports Y/Y: 18.7% v 12.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 23.3% v 21.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation: 1.0% v 0.8%e

- In equities: European markets attempted to hold off the sharp equity decline seen in NY and then Asia through first crosses. This brief stand was quickly overwhelmed as losses on peripheral exchanges hit core markets. Russian, Spanish, Italian and Greek market losses all served up to smack European equities across the board. Equities have been lower on a broad risk-aversion theme that continues to question sovereign debt levels in the EU. Nervousness ahead of US employment data has furthered the equity sell down. Asian and European markets moved to 10-week lows and threatened major technical levels in China and India. Losses in today's morning session have been most intense in financials that continued multi-session pull backs. Interbroker dealer ICAP [IAP.UK] revised its guidance down and was punished to the tune of -18%. Tech, autos and basic resources also rotated lower on the sector wide retreat. In this hostile equity environment, earnings names struggled to reflect solid figures. Agriculture giant Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] reported a raised dividend and share buyback program while 'less ad' numbers from British Airlines [BA.UK] allowed for temporary positive trading. Earnings from Skanska [SKAB.SW] and Volvo [VOLVB.SW] also produced positive trading. Telecom names have outperformed, led by Deutsche Telkom [DTE.GE] on media speculation that it was considering an IPO for its US T-mobile operations. European equity markets are on a two session, negative trading streak.

In individual equities: British Airways [BAY.UK]: Provides Update: 9M Op loss £86M v loss £199Me, Pretax loss £342Me v loss £443Me, Rev £6.14B v £6.1Be. || BG [BG.UK]: Reports Q4 Net £592M v £598Me, Rev £2.7B v £2.8Be, dividend at 6.73p/shr (+3% y/y). || Volvo [VOLVB.SW]: Reports Q4 Net (inc items) Loss SEK2B v loss SEK656Me, Rev SEK59.8B v SEK59.8Be, proposes no dividend. || Skanska [SKAB.SW]: Q4 Net SEK881M v SEK934Me, Rev SEK34.7B v SEK35.8Be. ||

- Speakers: EU Commission Vice president Verhuegen commented that there was no chance of Eurobond issue for Greece and that it must sort out its own budget situation. He added that other EU States would not pay for Greece*** ECB's Liikanen reaffirmed the standard ECB view that current level of interest rates were "suitable" ***Japan Fin Min Kan stated that he hoped the weekend G7 meeting has good communication on currencies and global markets. He reiterated the Japanese view that a stable pace in China's GDP growth rate was desirable. He added that it would be fair to discuss the CNY currency at G-7. He commented that the role of G7 is not diminishing and would like to discuss the process of bringing Japan out of deflation with G7 members. He wants to make sure the Obama finance regulation plan did not harm real economy ***French Fin Min Lagarde stated that there was a need further discussion of currencies at the weekend G7 meeting in Canada to avoid volatility and imbalances*** Turkey Trade Min commented that an IMF loan was not essential for Turkey and might hurt exporters on Lira currency strength. He added IMF's demands on Turkey were stricter than the measures it asks from other countries and not clear how beneficial any agreement would be***Swiss Central Bank (SNB) would not comment on Asian intervention rumors (Reminder the Asian session saw some volatility in the EUR/CHF and USD/CHF. The CHF moved sharply lower as dealers confirmed that the SNB name was seen on the inter-bank dealing machines.

- Currencies: Risk aversion sentiment continues to simmer over European peripherals ahead of the key US payroll report and a possible Portuguese vote on regional finances. There continues to be growing concerns that perhaps the EU might need to invoke emergency treaty powers and issue EU guarantee for Greek debt to contain the domino effect within the European peripherals. The dealer focus was on how European peripherals governments would combat budgetary shortfalls with potential economic headwinds curbing tax revenues and not creating jobs. The US morning will focus on the North American employment picture with key reports out of Canada and the US .
The EUR/USD hit fresh 9-month lows below 1.3650 before consolidating. The CHF currency was steady in Europe for the most part after exhibiting volatility in Asia on SNB intervention rumors. ). EUR/CHF at 1.4692 ahead of the NY morning and higher by 50 pips from its Asian open.

- Fixed Income: European Government Bonds remain the center of attention with fears of contagion really gathering steam *** Panic driven bull steepeners are the dominant trade in Germany - the 2yr Schatz yield has fallen some 6bps on the day to move below 1.00% for the first time in 5 years. Bunds targeting key chart point at 3.10%
- Euro-zone perhiperals still getting hit hard but there is some dislocation between cash and CDS. 10yr cash spreads vs Bunds are some distance from their all time highs (Greece +13bps to +363bps, Portugal + 5bps at +160) while 5 year CDS have surged into fresh records and Greece is now trading with a positive basis (5y CDS at 425bps)
- Gilts are enjoying a good session one day after the BoE confirmed any new purchases were not imminent. UK 10s -4bps at 3.68%
- Ahead of payrolls UST are still trading firm, the curve is flatter with buyers finding more value in the belly and long end. The 7 year note has been the best performer along the curve with the yield now approaching 3%, while the yield benchmark 10 year note down 4bps to trade at 3.565%.

-Geo/political: Ukraine is bracing for a run-off Presidential election between current PM Yulia Tymoshenko and rival Viktor Yanukovich. On Jan 17, Yanukovich won the first round of elections with 31.5% of the vote, Tymoshenko received 27.2%. Yanukovich maintains strong support from the Russian leaning eastern half of Ukraine while Tymoshenko is seen as more likely to pick up votes from the other previous candidates who did not advance to the second round. Note, Ukraine remains deeply divided between east/west and in its relations to the US and to Russia. Contentious issues regarding energy transfer, debts and the budget have led to suspension of talks with the IMF over a previously negotiated loan pact ***India has extended an offer to resume top level discussions with perpetual, nuclear armed rival Pakistan. Talks were cancelled after Nov 2008 terrorists attacks on the Indian city of Mumbai. The attacks were funded, planned and recruited by Islamists operating in Pakistan. Pakistan has been seen as indirectly pressing for resumption of the talks for several months. Pakistan, seeking to divert military forces and attention to its NW border with Afghanistan is seen as strongly interested in de-escalating issues with its Eastern neighbor. ** North Korea has claimed that it will free US national Robert Park, applying forgiveness due to Parks' 'sincere repentance of his wrong doings.' Park was detained by NK authorities on Dec 28, 2009. Park, a human rights activist, appears to have entered the reclusive state of this own accord, seeking to expose violations under the current regime. No mention was given of a second national that was detained on Jan 25, 2010

- Asian and European markets continue with soft tone after the Dow closed at three month lows just above 10k. Asia follows suit mostly down 2-3%.
- The Swiss national Bank (SNB) seen selling CHF currency during Asia session
- NFP today. Market expects a small positive reading but the data will also have benchmark revision and US census hirings.
- ECB's Liikanen: Reiterates central bank view that Greece and every country was responsible for their own debt
- EU Commission VP Verhuegen: No chance of Eurobond for Greece

***Looking Ahead:
- 6:30 (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.1% prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Jan Net Change in Employment: 15.0Ke v -2.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm payrolls: 15Ke v -85K prior; Change in Manufacturing payrolls: -20Ke v -27K prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 10.0%e v 10.0% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan - Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2%e vs 0.2% last; Average Weekly Hours: 33.2e v 33.2 last
- 11:00 (HU) Hungary Jan Budget Balance: No est v -918.6B prior
- 15:00 (US) Dec Consumer Credit: -$10.0Be v -$17.5B prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior


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