Week Ends with Forex Traders Still Concerned about Greece Debt Situation
The trading week ended with traders still fearing a widening
and deepening debt situation in the Euro Region. Optimistic traders are looking
for some solution to be reached by either a ‚Äúpseudo-bailout‚ÄĚ by the European
Central Bank or European Union.Legally,
the ECB or EU cannot offer an outright bailout package so they may have to
figure out a way to get around this restriction.
The International Monetary Fund was mentioned as a suitor
but it was awfully quiet this week. Pessimistic traders are looking for the
situation to escalate to Portugal
putting additional pressure on the Euro in the short-run. If a solution is
reached over the week-end, then the Euro is likely to open sharply higher as
shorts will pay anything to cover positions.
The Dollar had a volatile day before settling sharply higher
for the week. Early in the session, the U.S government reported that another
20,000 jobs were lost last month. Expectations were for a 25,000 to 40,000
increase. A surprise drop in the unemployment rate from 10.0% o 9.7% shocked
the market, triggering a wild intraday move.
After the report the primary focus of traders returned to Greece‚Äôs
deficit problem. Demand for safer assets rose and the Dollar was able to post
an 8-month high. This trend is likely to continue next week. Traders fear that
the debt issues in the Euro Region are deepening. Therefore demand for less
risky assets will continue to rise.
The GBP USD finished the week sharply lower. Risk aversion
and a weak economy are pressuring this pair. Earlier in the week, the Bank of
England left interest rates unchanged and voted to end its quantitative easing
program, however, it left the door open for further stimulus if deemed
Fear drove traders into the Japanese Yen, thereby weakening
the USD JPY for the week.Friday‚Äôs down
move was muted by the friendly U.S.
jobs report, triggering a light short-covering rally. The USD JPY has room to
the downside and trader talk is saying the Bank of Japan has no plans to weaken
the Yen. Choppy conditions will prevail, however, if U.S. economic news continues to
come out better than expected.
The weakening Euro and news that the Swiss National Bank
intervened to defend its currency against the Euro and to prevent deflation
helped lead to a higher finish in the USD CHF. Continued weakness is expected
to pressure the Swiss Franc. The SNB is expected to continue to aggressively
defend its currency against a rapid rise and extreme volatility.
The USD CAD closed up for the week, but lower on Friday.
Weak gold, crude oil and equities underpinned this pair all week, but Friday‚Äôs
slight recovery in stocks and gold help to limit losses.
The AUD USD and NZD USD finished the week sharply lower. The
news, that the Reserve Bank of Australia
held interest rates in check at its last meeting ignited weakness earlier in
the week.Lower demand for higher
yielding assets fueled a massive liquidation later in the week. Friday‚Äôs daily
closing price reversal indicates a possible short-term bottom. Watch for a
follow-through rally to confirm the short-term bottom on Monday.
Risk aversion and weak economic reports pressured the NZD
USD throughout the week, but Friday‚Äôs closing price reversal bottom indicates
oversold conditions may trigger the start of a short-covering rally.
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