equity markets mounted a strong recovery following the news that the
unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly. Although the number of jobs loss was
greater than forecast, the improvement in the jobless rate helped confirm that
the economy is on the road to recovery. Fear over sovereign debt issues in the
Euro Region most likely limited gains.
March Treasury Bonds remained firm despite the good news on
the jobless market. The stronger Dollar and demand for safety helped provide
the support. The charts indicate that this market will have an upside bias as
long as 118â€™24 holds as support. Near term resistance is 119â€™24. A weakening in
Treasuries next week will signal that traders are focusing on the economic outlook
rather than risk sentiment.
The stronger Dollar pressured April Gold early in the
trading session, however, oversold trading conditions helped boost this market
into the close. Overnight action broke gold to a 50% level at $1052.30 before
shorts began covering. The chart indicates there may be a snap back rally to
$1085.40 before new resistance is formed.
March Crude Oil accelerated to the downside after a pair of
bottoms at 72.53 and 72.43 was broken. The market continued lower until it
reached near term support at the lowest level since October. A stronger Dollar
is likely to keep pressure on this market however, technical factors indicate
this market may be nearing oversold levels.
The trading week ended with traders still fearing a widening
and deepening debt situation in the Euro Region. Optimistic traders are looking
for some solution to be reached by either a â€śpseudo-bailoutâ€ť by the European
Central Bank or European Union.Legally,
the ECB or EU cannot offer an outright bailout package so they may have to
figure out a way to get around this restriction.
The International Monetary Fund was mentioned as a suitor
but it was awfully quiet this week. Pessimistic traders are looking for the
situation to escalate to Portugal
putting additional pressure on the Euro in the short-run. If a solution is
reached over the week-end, then the Euro is likely to open sharply higher as
shorts will pay anything to cover positions.
The Dollar had a volatile day before settling sharply higher
for the week. Early in the session, the U.S government reported that another
20,000 jobs were lost last month. Expectations were for a 25,000 to 40,000
increase. A surprise drop in the unemployment rate from 10.0% o 9.7% shocked
the market, triggering a wild intraday move.
After the report the primary focus of traders returned to Greeceâ€™s
deficit problem. Demand for safer assets rose and the Dollar was able to post
an 8-month high. This trend is likely to continue next week. Traders fear that
the debt issues in the Euro Region are deepening. Therefore demand for less
risky assets will continue to rise.
The GBP USD finished the week sharply lower. Risk aversion
and a weak economy are pressuring this pair. Earlier in the week, the Bank of
England left interest rates unchanged and voted to end its quantitative easing
program, however, it left the door open for further stimulus if deemed
Fear drove traders into the Japanese Yen, thereby weakening
the USD JPY for the week.Fridayâ€™s down
move was muted by the friendly U.S.
jobs report, triggering a light short-covering rally. The USD JPY has room to
the downside and trader talk is saying the Bank of Japan has no plans to weaken
the Yen. Choppy conditions will prevail, however, if U.S. economic news continues to
come out better than expected.
The weakening Euro and news that the Swiss National Bank
intervened to defend its currency against the Euro and to prevent deflation
helped lead to a higher finish in the USD CHF. Continued weakness is expected
to pressure the Swiss Franc. The SNB is expected to continue to aggressively
defend its currency against a rapid rise and extreme volatility.
The USD CAD closed up for the week, but lower on Friday.
Weak gold, crude oil and equities underpinned this pair all week, but Fridayâ€™s
slight recovery in stocks and gold help to limit losses.
The AUD USD and NZD USD finished the week sharply lower. The
news, that the Reserve Bank of Australia
held interest rates in check at its last meeting ignited weakness earlier in
the week.Lower demand for higher
yielding assets fueled a massive liquidation later in the week. Fridayâ€™s daily
closing price reversal indicates a possible short-term bottom. Watch for a
follow-through rally to confirm the short-term bottom on Monday.
Risk aversion and weak economic reports pressured the NZD
USD throughout the week, but Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom indicates
oversold conditions may trigger the start of a short-covering rally.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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