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Thursday March 3, 2005 - 08:35:16 GMT
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TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK FROM ACETRADER

TODAY'S FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK FROM ACETRADER
Thu, 03 Mar 2005 08:21:08GMT
Daily report
By AceTrader
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EUR/USD - 1.3138
Update Time : 08:20 GMT

As 1.3088 has contained euro's weakness, minor consolidation is seen b4 this week's fall fm 1.3279 to correct recent strg upmove fm 1.2732 resumes n extends to 1.3060/70 but loss of momentum shud keep price well abv 1.3013 sup n yield rebound later.

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Mar 2005 07:55:00

Dlr's cross-inspired rebound fm 1.1732 signals pullback fm y'day's high at 1.1780 has ended there n re-test of this res is envisaged, abv wud extend erratic upmove fm 1.1567 to 1.800/10 b4 prospect of a retreat due to nr term loss of momentum.

Hold long with stop as indicated, below 1.1732 wud signal intra-day top is made n risk 1.1705/10..

Rate: 1.1766
Strategy: Hold long
Position: Long at 1.1742
Objective: 1.1780
Stop-Loss: 1.1745
R: 1.1780/1.1800/1.1842
S: 1.1732/1.1705/1.1665

DAILY EUR/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Mar 2005 07:26:00

Euro's decline fm this week's top at 139.45 is likely to resume after minor consolidation n bring a retracement of recent upmove twds 137.15 sup, how ever, loss of momentum wud prevent steep fall below there n yield rebound later.

Sell recovery for 137.15 n if euro falls to 137 .15 1st, buy for 137.95 but 138.52 wud hold...

Rate: +137.95+
Strategy: +Hold short+
Position:+Short at 137.95+
Objective: +137.15+
Stop-Loss: +138.50+
R: 137.96/138.55/139.16
S: 137.12/136.62/136.23

JUNE EURODOLLAR FUTURES DAILY OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Mar 2005 00:18:00

Despite eurodlr's recovery fm 96.53, as long as 96.58 holds, recent decline fm is likely to extend weakness to 96.52 but 96.50 shud remain intact.

Trade fm short side, stop at 96.60, break wud sig nal temp. low is made n risk rebound to 96.62/63...

Rate: 96.56
Strategy: Short at 96.57
Position: Short at 96.57
Objective: 96.52
Stop-Loss: 96.60
R: 96.57/96.59/96.62
S: 96.53/96.50/96.45

YESTERDAY'S RECOMMENDED TRADES

INTRA-DAY EUR/YEN CROSS OUTLOOK - +137.50+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 12:13GMT

As euro has fallen after meeting renewed selling
at 137.96, suggesting recovery fm 137.48 has ended
n downside bias is seen for a resumption of this
week's decline fm 139.45, bring re-test of said sup
, then 137.30/35 but sup at 137.12 wud hold.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated. Only
abv 138.02 wud signal temp. low is made...


Rate: +137.50+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 137.85
Objective: 137.50
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 137.96/138.55/139.16
Support: 137.48/137.12/136.62


INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.7780+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 09:13GMT

As renewed selling at 0.7830/35 capped recovery
fm 0.7795, suggesting downside bias remains for
intra-day selloff to resume after minor consolida-
tion n yield further weakness to 0.7785 (50% r of
0.7612-0.7958) later.
+Hold short with stop as indicated, only abv 0.
7830/35 wud risk stronger correction to 0.7860..+


Rate: +0.7780+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 0.7810+
Objective: +0.7780+
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7860/0.7893/0.7946
Support: 0.7795/0.7735/0.7700


DAILY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.1715+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 09:06GMT

Despite y'day's cross-inspired retreat fm 1.16
89, dlr's subsequent rebound fm 1.1605 suggests the
rise fm this week's low at 1.1578 wud extend gain
to indicated obj. but as outlook is consolidative,
reckon prev. res at 1.1740 wud limit upside.
Hold long with stop as indicated, below defers
but last week's low at 1.1567 shud remain intact...


Rate: +1.1715+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.1620
Objective: 1.1715
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.1740/1.1800/1.1842
Support: 1.1647/1.1605/1.1567


INTRA-DAY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - +1.1715+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 09:05GMT

As dlr has risen after finding renewed buying
interest abv 1.1660, suggesting marginal gain to 1.
1715 wud be seen, however, as broad outlook remains
consolidative, reckon res 1.1740 wud cap upside n
yield retreat later.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, be-
low wud defer n risk 1.1645/47 but 1.1605 wud hold.


Rate: +1.1715+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Long at 1.1675
Objective: 1.1715
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.1740/1.1800/1.1842
Support: 1.1647/1.1605/1.1567


INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3135+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 09:01GMT

Although euro has continued to trade abv 1.3147
n further consolidation wud be seen, upside shud be
ltd to 1.3189 n erratic fall fm Monday's high 1.32
79 shud resume later for weakness to 1.3130/35 but
loss of nr term momentum wud keep price abv 1.3110.
Trade fm short side with stop as indicated,
abv defers this bearish scenario n risks 1.3210/15.


Rate: +1.3135+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.3170
Objective: 1.3135
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.3189/1.3226/1.3279
Support: 1.3090/1.3049/1.3013


DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.9145+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 08:54GMT

Cable's decline fm this week's top at 1.9262 is
viewed as a retracement of recent upmove n further
weakness to 1.9140/45 is seen after consolidation,
however, reckon 1.9100 wud limit downside fm here n
yield a rebound later this week.
Hold short with stop as indicated, abv wud risk
re-test of 1.9262 n possibly 1.9290/00 b4 down...


Rate: +1.9145+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.9213
Objective: 1.9145
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.9229/1.9262/1.9292
Support: 1.9125/1.9064/1.9015


INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - +1.9150+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 08:53GMT

As y'day's retreat fm 1.9229 has kept cable
under pressure, suggesting erratic fall fm 1.9262
top to retrace recent upmove wud extend weakness to
1.9145/50, however, loss of nr term momentum shud
limit downside to 1.9110/15.
+Hold short with stop at 1.9210+, only abv said
wud confirm low has been formed...


Rate: +1.9150+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 1.9185+
Objective: 1.9150
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.9229/1.9262/1.9292
Support: 1.9162/1.9109/1.9064


INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3155+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 01:03GMT

As euro has penetrated y'day's low at 1.3168
partly due to cross selling in euro vs yen n gbp,
retaining downside bias for decline fm this week's
top at 1.3279 to extend weakness twds previous sup
at 1.3145 b4 prospect of a recovery.
Hold short with stop as indicated, abv wud risk
stronger retracement twd 1.3226...


Rate: +1.3155+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: Short at 1.3185
Objective: 1.3155
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 1.3189/1.3226/1.3279
Support: 1.3145/1.3090/1.3049


INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - +0.7815+
Update Time : 2005/02/03 00:56GMT

As 0.7884 has capped the recovery fm y'day's low
at 0.7832, A$'s selloff fm there after release of
lower then expected Australian GDP suggests further
fall to indicated obj. is seen but below 0.7806 is
needed for breakout of 0.7806-0.7958 range, 0.7780.
Sell aussie with stop as indicated, abv defers
but 0.7884/93 res shud limit upside...


Rate: +0.7815+
Strategy: +Target met+
Position: +Short at 0.7847+
Objective: 0.7815
Stop-Loss:
Resistance: 0.7884/0.7946/0.7958
Support: 0.7806/0.7786/0.7735


AceTrader Performance Update
2005 YTD (till Feb 28) (Pips)
Intraday Daily
USD/JPY (145) (242)
EUR/USD 370 66
USD/CHF 251 (49)
GBP/USD 621 (168)

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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