G-7 Fails to Assure Investors about Euro Zone Risks
The U.S. Dollar had a volatile trade overnight with a slight
bias to the downside. Profit-taking was highlighted last night as traders
turned a little positive that a solution was going to be reached regarding the
escalating deficit issue in Greece.Overbought technical factors even helped to
weaken the Dollar.Rumors swirled
overnight that a solution had been reached to shore up Greeceâ€™s
finances. These most likely began following a positive comment by French
Finance Minister Christine Lagardeâ€™s comment at the Group of Seven meeting. She
stated that Greeceâ€™s
budget deficit would be â€śmanagedâ€ť.
Following a short-term rally in the Euro and a subsequent
break in the Dollar, the Greenback began to strengthen late in the session, as
traders began to weigh the evidence for and against a Greece
resolution. The Dollar began strengthening after investors realized that there
were still some concerns about the fiscal health of some Euro Zone nations and
that the G-7 did not offer up strong enough reasons to believe that the
situation would improve.
Although European ministers tried to assure their U.S. and
Asian counter-parts that they would ensure that Greece would stick to its
proposed budget, investors reacted as if their statements failed to instill the
confidence needed to prevent a derailing of the global economic recovery.
The EUR USD saw a choppy two-sided trade overnight. Early
session rumors of a solution to the deficit issues in the Euro Zone helped support
the Euro, but those gains were erased by worried traders. Continue to look for
a volatile trade with a bias to the downside until the European Central Bank,
European Union or International Monetary Fund offers a viable solution to the
Euro Regionâ€™s fiscal problems.
Pressure is on the GBP USD overnight. Besides the weak
economy, investors are now having to deal with the possibility that the U.K. will suffer the same fate as Portugal, Spain
and have its debt rating reduced because of its huge budget deficit.
Furthermore, news that the June election could result in neither party
receiving a majority is also hurting the British Pound.
The USD JPY is trading a little better, but this situation
could shift quickly if risk aversion returns to the markets. Budget problems in
Europe, the U.K. and the United States
may encourage traders to seek the safety of the lower yielding Asian
currencies. An overnight recovery in U.S. equity markets helped the
Dollar trade higher versus the Yen, but this gain disappeared after the stock
markets turned negative.
The direction of the USD CHF will be determined by the
movement in the Euro. A weaker Euro will increase the chances of a Swiss Bank
intervention, thereby strengthening the Dollar versus the Swiss Franc. A
short-covering rally in the Euro will pressure the USD CHF.
Strong gold and crude oil are helping to pressure the USD
CAD.Look for the Canadian Dollar to
strengthen as long as it is getting support from the commodity complex.The weaker stock market will help to limit
The AUD USD and NZD USD are poised to rally following
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. Early in the trading session, the
Aussie and Kiwi posted strong gains as both higher commodity and equity markets
were driving up demand for higher yielding assets. These two markets erased
their earlier gains once the U.S.
stock markets turned negative. Look for a choppy, two-sided trade as long as
their remains uncertainty about investor aversion to risk. If equity markets stabilize
then rally, watch for the NZD USD and AUD USD to turn positive.
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