Easing of Investor Risk Sentiment Supporting Equity Markets
An easing of investor risk sentiment is helping to support
equity price overnight. Early in the trading session, stock markets followed
through to the upside following Fridayâ€™s strong finish and talk of a possible
resolution of the fiscal problems plaguing the Euro Region.
Appetite for risk was on the rise as the Dollar weakened and
the Euro rose. Optimism that a viable solution could be reached to assure
investors that Greece
would adhere to its budget, helped drive investor confidence up.It looks as if today could start out choppy
until investors decide whether to embrace risk or repel it.
March Treasury Bonds are trading lower.The overnight weakness is being triggered by
a combination of falling demand for lower risk assets and the new supply of
debt which is ready to come to the market courtesy of the U.S. Treasury.Overnight support is being established at a
50% level at 118â€™24.A failure to hold
this level is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside.
The weakening Dollar helped April Gold rally overnight. Traders
also believe that the gold market overreacted to the downside last week. A
combination of oversold conditions and a successful test of a retracement level
at $1049.60 could help to give Gold a boost today. Furthermore, growing
deficits in most major economies is renewing talk of a major inflationary
situation. Some gold investors believe that central banks will be forced to
print money to cover their deficits. This will weaken paper money, making hard
assets more valuable.
The weaker Dollar and increased demand for higher risk is
helping to drive up March Crude Oil overnight.The supply and demand situation remains bleak so this market will be
more sensitive to currency movement. Look for a surge to the upside if the
Dollar trades through last nightâ€™s low.
The U.S. Dollar had a volatile trade overnight with a slight
bias to the downside. Profit-taking was highlighted last night as traders
turned a little positive that a solution was going to be reached regarding the
escalating deficit issue in Greece.Overbought technical factors even helped to
weaken the Dollar.Rumors swirled
overnight that a solution had been reached to shore up Greeceâ€™s finances. These most likely
began following a positive comment by French Finance Minister Christine
Lagardeâ€™s comment at the Group of Seven meeting. She stated that Greeceâ€™s
budget deficit would be â€śmanagedâ€ť.
Following a short-term rally in the Euro and a subsequent
break in the Dollar, the Greenback began to strengthen late in the session, as
traders began to weigh the evidence for and against a Greece resolution. The Dollar began
strengthening after investors realized that there were still some concerns
about the fiscal health of some Euro Zone nations and that the G-7 did not
offer up strong enough reasons to believe that the situation would
Although European ministers tried to assure their U.S. and
Asian counter-parts that they would ensure that Greece would stick to its
proposed budget, investors reacted as if their statements failed to instill the
confidence needed to prevent a derailing of the global economic recovery.
The March Euro saw a choppy two-sided trade overnight. Early
session rumors of a solution to the deficit issues in the Euro Zone helped
support the Euro, but those gains were erased by worried traders. Continue to
look for a volatile trade with a bias to the downside until the European
Central Bank, European Union or International Monetary Fund offers a viable
solution to the Euro Regionâ€™s fiscal problems.
Pressure is on the March British Pound overnight. Besides
the weak economy, investors are now having to deal with the possibility that
the U.K. will suffer the
same fate as Portugal, Spain and Greece and have its debt rating
reduced because of its huge budget deficit. Furthermore, news that the June
election could result in neither party receiving a majority is also hurting the
The March Japanese Yen is trading a little weaker, but this
situation could shift quickly if risk aversion returns to the markets. Budget
problems in Europe, the U.K.
and the United States
may encourage traders to seek the safety of the lower yielding Asian
currencies. An overnight recovery in U.S. equity markets helped the
Dollar trade higher versus the Yen, but this gain disappeared after the stock
markets turned negative.
The direction of the March Swiss Franc will be determined by
the movement in the Euro. A weaker Euro will increase the chances of a Swiss
Bank intervention, thereby strengthening the Dollar versus the Swiss Franc. A
short-covering rally in the Euro will support a rise in the March Swiss Franc.
Strong gold and crude oil are helping to underpin the March
Canadian Dollar.Look for the Canadian
Dollar to strengthen as long as it is getting support from the commodity
complex.The weaker stock market will
help to limit these gains.
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