User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday February 9, 2010 - 11:00:58 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

European Market Update: Risk appetite firms on potential policy measures by the ECB to limit contagion from the Greek crisis

Tuesday, February 09, 2010 5:49:29 AM

 European Market Update: Risk appetite firms on potential policy measures by the ECB to limit contagion from the Greek crisis

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (GE) Germany Trade Balance: €13.5B v €15.0Be; Current Account: €20.6B v €19.1Be; Exports M/M: 3.0% v -0.1%e; Imports M/M: 4.5% v 3.0%e
- (GE) Germany Jan Final CPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (GE) Germany Jan Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: -€50M v €250Me
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: €375M v €271Me
- (CZ) Czech Jan CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 1.0%e
- (UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance: -£7.3B v -£6.7Be; Total Trade Balance: -£3.3B v -£2.8Be; Trade Balance Non-EU: -£3.6B v -£3.1Be
- (SA) South Africa Q4 Unemployment: 24.3% v 24.5% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e
- (GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.6% v -6.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Jan Budget Level YTD (RUB): 66.1B v -2.3T prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities: European markets rotated off their strong gains on Monday's session (which snapped a 3-consecutive negative trend) on an initially soft footing. Declines in the
US, with the DOW closing below 10,000 and a mixed session in Asia, that saw heavy trading in financials, set the macro background. Premarket corporate reports were dominated by UBS [UBSN.SZ] which broke a trend of 4-conecutive net losses with a positive Q1 net figure that beat expectations. Headline figures quickly gave way to focus on continued bleeding in the banks Wealth Management house that saw further sizeable q/q declines in both North America and Europe. UBS opened sharply lower but served as a broad indicator of market sentiment as shares led a gradual recovery in financials that rallied markets. UBS nearly broke the unchanged mark at 4:30EST, but fell off its best levels in a trend that was mirrored by equity markets. Disappointed UK trade data served as an immediate catalyst to this pare-back. Into 5:30ESt, European equity markets are off their best levels on in-line trading volumes.

In individual equities: UBS [UBSN.SZ]: Reports Q4 Net adj CHF1.4B v CHF653Me, Rev CHF6.09B v CHF6.9Be.|| BskyB [BSY.UK]: Confirms placing of 404k ITV shares at 48.5p/shr for aggregate proceeds of £196M. || Heidelberger [
HDD.GE]: Reports Q3 EBIT loss €13M v loss €41Me, Rev €578M v €538Me. ||

- Speakers: Greece Labor Minister commented that the Gov't is considering raising average real retirement age to 63 from 61 by 2015. He added that the pension system would face funding problems by 2015 if no measures taken ***Poland Finance Ministry issued its new convergence plan to reduce deficit to under 3% by 2012. The plan noted that Public debt would not exceed 55% of GDP between 2010-2012 period under Polish accounting rules. The 2011 Debt-to-
GDP would hit 56.3% under EU rules. The plan decided against setting a new target for adopting the euro. The government originally wanted to replace the zloty with the European Union's single currency in 2012 ***Ireland Honohan stated that current Irish budgetary adjustments seemed to be at correct levels *** EU's Barroso commented that there was further action required by Greece and the EU had the ability to monitor the situation. He noted that all EU states were aware of the challenge and the need to reinforce economic coordination within the EMU. The Maastrict Stability Pact needs to be properly implemented. The Greek situation would be tougher without the Euro currency but the media treatment of the situation amplifies the difficulties. ***Goldman Sachs Chief Economist O'Neill: Sees China's PBoC raising interest rate between one to three times in 2010 with the first hike coming at any time now.

- Currencies: The USD and JPY currencies were softer in the European session amid speculation that the ECB would hold an emergency meeting to discuss measures to head off contagion in the Greek debt crisis. Speculation mounted after ECB's Trichet left a meeting with the RBA a day early, which helped market sentiment. UK press taking note of recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report to surmise that traders and hedge funds have amassed the largest ever short positions against the Euro on the ssuspicions that the Greek crisis could give way to a full-blown attack on the euro. Nonetheless the EUR/USD remains to overtake the 1.3740 level, which was a prior upside acceleration point in May 2009 and the recent hourly high in the aftermath of the US Nonfarm payroll report last Friday. Some dealers note that the problem for
Europe is that if Greece received special treatment then what precedent this would be for other peripherals and their adherence to the Maastrict growth and stability pact .

- Fixed Income: The Trichet story and implications for a bailout have led to a decline in both cash yield spreads against the core and outright CDS protection for
Europe's more fiscally challenged nations. The Greek 10y has shed 10bps to trade at Bunds +350bps while 5yr CDS has fallen by about the same amount to trade at +412bps. Portugal is the next best performer with 10 year yields at Bunds +151bps and 5 year CDS at 235bps, both lower by about 9bps. The DMO sold £2B in 24 year Gilts with robust results (bid-to-cover above 2x, yield tail 0.3bps), especially in light of the significant duration drop and the recent exit of the BoE from the market.

-Geo/political:
Iran has wasted no time in carrying out plans to accelerate its higher enrichment level program. The operation, which Iran claims is for exclusive use in its medical reactor program is a fresh rebuff of increasingly wide spread, and consensus calls, for tighter sanctions. Iranian state media has reported that the enrichment process began early on Tuesday at its Natranz facility. Iran stands ready to celebrate the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution on Feb 11. The date is now seen as a broad showdown behind the hard-line gov and any domestic opposition. Clear labeling of the opposition as foreign agents, in addition to the recent execution of several demonstrators, has eliminated any room for negotiation on the issue. *** US Defense Secretary Gates has express concern on an official level to French officials regarding the planned sale of multiple amphibious assault ships of the Mistral class to Russia. The vessels, capable of landing armored vehicles and launching helicopters are valued at $750M/unit. NATO members in the Baltic's have posed significant questions regarding the sale due to their relationship and proximity to Russia proper and Kaliningrad. *** As expected, current Ukrainian PM Tymoshenko will seek to contest last Sunday second round Presidential results. Supporters will seek recounts of some stations and contest the results of others. So far, all actions that have been called for have been in the political/legal realm, not major demonstrations or street protests. Reminder: On Sunday Feb 7, with 84% of Ukraine's election votes counted by Central Election Commission, Yanukovich leads Tymoshenko 48.5% to 45.9%

- In the papers: Article in German press (Der Spiegal ) entitled "How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt. Article stated that Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.
Greece's debt managers agreed a huge deal with the savvy bankers of US investment bank Goldman Sachs at the start of 2002. The deal involved so-called cross-currency swaps in which government debt issued in dollars and yen was swapped for euro debt for a certain period -- to be exchanged back into the original currencies at a later date. Article pointed out that Such transactions are part of normal government refinancing. But in the Greek case the US bankers devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates. That enabled Greece to receive a far higher sum than the actual euro market value of 10 billion dollars or yen. In that way Goldman Sachs secretly arranged additional credit of up to $1 billion for the Greeks. At some point Greece will have to pay up for its swap transactions, and that will impact its deficit. The bond maturities range between 10 and 15 years.

***Notes:
- UBS reports first quarterly profit in over a year; clients have removed a net CHF228.1B over the 21 months through December
- ECB's Trichet left a meeting with the RBA a day early, which helped fuel that the EU will find a solution to the peripheral debt situation and aiding overall market sentiment
- Greece Fin Min: "The worst possible signal which we could send out is one calling for outside help "
- Greece labor Min: Seeks to raise retirement age from 61 to 63 by 2015
- Fed's Bullard comments deemed fairly hawkish comments. Sees discount rate rising soon and rates rising in steps.

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:30 (US) Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism: No est v 88.0 prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales: No est v 0.1% prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales: No est v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Wholesale Inventories: 0.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 48.8 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Consumer Prices M/M: 1.0%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 3.6% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior
- 12:30 (UA) Ukraine to sell 2-year and 3-year bonds
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell MXN2.5B in 5-year FRN and MXN2.5B in 30-year bonds
- 13:00 (US) To sell $40B in 3-year notes
- 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories

 

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105