Tuesday February 9, 2010 - 12:17:20 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 09-Feb-2010 - 1215 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0698/0702...Might test the Support region 1.0630-00 before a bounce back
R: 1.0775 / 1.0820 / 1.0880
S: 1.0650 / 1.0630-00 / 1.0550
Swiss broke below the Support at 1.07 as expected and is now trading in a very narrow range of 1.0675-1.07 for some time. As mentioned in the morning we might see a downmove towards the Support in 1.0630-00 region initially in the coming sessions and then see a bounce back once again towards 1.08 or even higher in the coming days.
Note, 1.0880 (21-Month-MA) and 1.0940 [the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (09-Mar-09) to 0.9916 (23-Nov-09)] are the significant levels to watch for on the upside above 1.08.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 1.0620, SL 1.0530. TP 1.0880
GBP-USD @ 1.5580/85...May consolidate between 1.55-57
R: 1.5597-5605 / 1.5667 / 1.5717
S: 1.5550-5500 / 1.5271
The Cable rose towards 1.5646 during the day and has come off since there after the UK Trade Balance numbers were not able to meet street expectations. A further fall may be contained near 1.5550-5500. If it does, there could be chances of some pull back towards 1.5700-30 over the next couple of days. Hence, there's greater likelihood of the pair consolidating in the 1.55-1.57 region for the next couple of days.
The pair is overall bearish but has a crucial Support at 1.5500. This will have to be watched closely. Importantly, this Support coincides with crucial Resistances and Supports in other currency pairs which makes us doubt the break of this Support immediately unless there is some news flow impacting the global markets.
AUD-USD @ 0.8710/13...Holding Short
R: 0.8750-70 / 0.8830-45 / 0.8880
S: 0.8670 / 0.8590 / 0.8550-30
Aussie broke above 0.8700 during the day. However, much momentum is not seen in its upmove and it has come off from the day's high of 0.8737. If it continues to trade above 0.87 we might see a rise towards 0.8750 in the US session today. We might see a pull back once again towards the 200-DMA Support (currently at 0.8590) in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier we mght expect a break below the 200-DMA and see a downmove towards 0.8470-50 over the next few days.
AUD 10K Short at 0.8720, SL 0.8810, TP 0.8480.
As soon as the market trades 0.8660 bring the SL down to 0.8760 and as soon as the market trades 0.8620 thereafter trial SL to 0.8710.
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