The U.S. Dollar is under pressure overnight as traders are
liquidating long positions on the prospect of that a deal to rescue Greece from its sovereign debt problem is being
worked out in Brussels.
Speculation is rising that some kind of â€śbailoutâ€ť package is being created which
would help shore up the Greek budget and help restore confidence in the Euro
In a scene out of the movie â€śWall Streetâ€ť, the travel habits
of ECB President Trichet are being tracked as if they are an indication of an
impending deal. It has been reported that Trichet cut back a trip to Australia to attend a European Union meeting in Brussels. The market is
reading this as a sign that negotiations have reached a critical point and that
an announcement of a plan to back Greece and perhaps other struggling
nations is ready to be revealed.
Appetite for risk is being renewed as investors are gaining
more confidence that Greeceâ€™s
fiscal problems will be resolved and the threat to the global economic recovery
will be diminished.Both commodities and
stocks are on the rise, taking with them commodity-linked currencies such as
the Canadian and Australian Dollars.
Volatility is expected to increase as long Dollar traders
begin to exit positions. At the same time, investors will continue to be
cautious and may overreact to any news that indicates the impending deal has
hit a snag.
The EUR USD is trading sharply higher on the possibility
that the Greek fiscal problems will be resolved in an orderly fashion.
Investors are covering short positions aggressively in an effort to lock-up
recent profits. In addition, new long positions are being entered as bullish
traders anticipate the possibility the Euro will return to a more reasonable
The GBP USD is mounting a strong recovery after trading
lower for several days. The gains in the Pound are most likely a relief rally,
triggered by short-covering.Investors
are still skeptical about the U.K.
economy as well as sovereign debt issues of its own.
The USD JPY is trading higher as demand for risky assets
returns to the market. Traders are lightening up safe haven positions in the
Japanese Yen. Volatility is likely to be high once the announcement of the plan
to shore up Greeceâ€™s
finances is released.
The rally in the Euro is taking the pressure off the Swiss
National Bank to intervene. This is helping the USD CHF weaken. The SNB will do
anything to defend its currency against deflation and this includes applying
intervention when necessary. As long as the Euro appreciates versus the Swiss
Franc, the SNB will avoid using intervention as its main tool to maintain
stability and order to this currency relationship.
The return of demand for risky assets is helping to boost
equities, gold and crude oil. This is leading investors to step up demand for
the Canadian Dollar while exerting pressure on the USD CAD.
Appetite for risky assets is also driving up demand for the
higher yielding AUD USD and NZD USD. These two pairs have taken a beating lately
as traders dumped asset-related currencies. A return to more â€śnormalâ€ť risk
conditions is likely to benefit both markets. Technically, both of these
markets posted closing price reversal bottoms on Friday. These potentially
bullish patterns were confirmed overnight. The current patterns suggest a 2 to
3 day rally appears imminent.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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