Optimism Helping to Drive U.S. Equity Markets Higher
stock markets are trading sharply higher at the mid-session, driven by reports
that the Greek sovereign debt problems will be resolved shortly.Stock investors are driving up stocks across
the board as confidence is being restored to the markets. Bargain hunters have also
stepping in to take advantage of lower priced equities.
On Monday, the Dow closed under 10,000 for the first time
since November 2009. Some read this as a bearish sign while other saw this as a
chance to gobble up cheap stock. For days, the major indices had been trading
as if waiting for a catalyst. The developing story out of the Euro Region is
the catalyst behind today‚Äôs sharp rise.
Treasury futures are trading under pressure today because of
technical and fundamental reasons. Demand for higher risk assets is leading to
liquidation of safety plays put on by nervous investors last week. Additional
pressure is coming from the increase in supply from the upcoming Treasury
auction. One sign of impending weakness is the penetration of a support level
April Gold is trading higher, driven to the upside by the
weaker Dollar and demand for risky commodities. The recent break may have been
overdone to the downside which is helping to give longer-term investors a
chance to re-enter positions at cheaper prices.
Greater demand for risky assets is also helping to give
March Crude Oil a boost. Although the supply and demand picture remains bleak,
cheap prices following the recent sell-off and the weaker Dollar are reasons
enough to re-enter on the long side. The first upside target is a retracement
zone at 74.63 to 75.29.
Appetite for risky assets is helping to drive down the U.S.
Dollar at the mid-session. Profit-taking and fresh selling is apparent as
investors adjust their portfolio positions in anticipation of a resolution to
the sovereign debt problems in Greece
and the neighboring Euro Region.
At this time, the resolution appears to be specifically
designed for Greece.
Investors are still skeptical as to whether similar problems in Portugal and Spain will get the same treatment.
These concerns could be helping to limit today‚Äôs gains.
The March Euro is trading sharply higher at the mid-session
on the possibility that the Greek fiscal problems will be resolved in an
orderly fashion. Investors are covering short positions aggressively in an
effort to lock-up recent profits. In addition, new long positions are being
entered as bullish traders anticipate the possibility the Euro will return to a
more reasonable price level.
The March British Pound is mounting a strong recovery this
afternoon after trading lower for several days while breaking key support
levels. The gains in the Pound are most likely a relief rally, triggered by
short-covering.Investors are still
skeptical about the U.K.
economy as well as sovereign debt issues of its own.U.K. traders are worried that its
oversized budget deficit will encourage debt rating services to lower its
Aggressive demand for higher yielding assets is helping to
push the March Japanese Yen lower. Traders have been lightening up safe haven
positions in the Japanese Yen. Volatility is likely to be high once the
announcement of the plan to shore up Greece‚Äôs finances is finally
released.Long positions in the Yen and
other Asian currencies have been building for several weeks because the current
fiscal problems, driving these markets seems to be isolated in Europe.
Today‚Äôs Euro rally is taking the pressure off the Swiss
National Bank to intervene on the Swiss Franc‚Äôs behalf. This is helping to strengthen
the March Swiss Franc. The SNB will do anything to defend its currency against
deflation and this includes applying intervention when necessary. As long as
the Euro appreciates versus the Swiss Franc, the SNB will avoid using
intervention as its main tool to maintain stability and order to this currency
Higher equities, gold and crude oil are helping to fuel
demand for risky assets. This action is leading investors to step up demand for
the Canadian Dollar while exerting pressure on the US Dollar. The charts are
indicating this currency is likely to return to the middle of its ‚Äúsuper range‚ÄĚ
at about .9553.
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