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Wednesday February 10, 2010 - 09:58:10 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 10,
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless
The traders of the US look forward to the publication of the
Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, January 11. The claims are a seasonally
adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for
the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department
of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is
used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases
indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis,
claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is
required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than
expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts
predict a slight decline from the past reading to a reading of
The Euro broke
yesterdayâ€™s resistance 1.3745, and successfully reached the first target 1.3805,
which enhances our assumption of having a corrective rebound. As we said
yesterday, with Fridayâ€™s move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a
fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present.
But we need a break of todayâ€™s resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds
favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is at 1.3805, and
breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the
drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction.
The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936.
While the support is at 1.3743, and breaking it would bring back the drop,
targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
â€¢ 1.3743: the rising
trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts.
â€¢ 1.3666: a well known previous
â€¢ 1.3582: Apr 6th
â€¢ 1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop
â€¢ 1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3936: Feb 1st high.
did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterdayâ€™s report,
although it tried to break 89.87 more than once, and kept trading in a
relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the
technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth
mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at
88.23 (Thursdayâ€™s low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most
important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at
89.51, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important
support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short
term resistance is still at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen
has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting
yesterdayâ€™s drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close
to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14
â€¢ 89.51: the rising trend line from
Thursdayâ€™s low on intraday charts.
â€¢ 88.81: Fridayâ€™s low.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to
â€¢ 89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short
â€¢ 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
on currency trading see
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.
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