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European Market Update: German lawmakers asked to consider Greek aid beyond loan guarantees

Wednesday, February 10, 2010 5:53:06 AM

 European Market Update: German lawmakers asked to consider Greek aid beyond loan guarantees


- (FI) Finland Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -5.9% v -5.0%e
- (FR) France Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.6%e
- (FR) France Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -0.8%e
- (FR) France Dec Current Account: -€3.6 v -€3.4B prior
- (SP) Spain Dec House Transactions Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.6% prior
- (DE) Denmark Jan CPI M/M: 0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.5%e
- (DE) Denmark Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M:0.3 % v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.2% prior
- (SW) Sweden Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.5%e ; Y/Y: -5.8% v -7.8%e
- (SW) Sweden Dec Industrial Orders M/M: -1.1% v 2.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.0% v -1.5% prior
- (SW) Sweden Dec Activity Index: 100.5 v 100.5 prior
- (NO) Norway Jan CPI M/M: 0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.1%e
- (NO) Norway Jan CPI Underlying M/M: -0.6% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Producer Prices M/M: 3.9% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 13.8% v 10.0% prior
- (SW) Sweden Jan AMV Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.7%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -4.0%e; Indust Prod WDA Y/Y: -5.6% v -4.9%e
- (UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.6% v -4.1%e
- (UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -3.0%e
- (PO) Portugal Jan CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (PO) Portugal Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3
- (UK) BOE Quarterly Inflation Report: Lowers GDP forecast and states inflation to undershoot the 2.0%
- (IR) Ireland Industrial Production M/M: -4.2% v -8.5% prior; Y/Y: -5.6% v -9.9% prior

- In equities: European markets look ready to test a third consecutive session of gains. Trading in
Asia was broadly upside after a triple point rebound rally in the US on Tuesday. Equity strength in Europe continues to be driven by the financials. Rumor and speculation regarding an upcoming EU meeting on Thursday (Feb 11, 2010) has provided a sense of easing to the sovereign threat issue (wither this easing is justified is yet to be determined). Banks and Insurance names join a smaller positive rotation in mineral names following earning release from the sector giant BHP Billiton [BHP.AU]. Pre-market corporate reports in Europe have been mostly negative, with ArcellorMittal [MT.NV], stating that while volumes will grow into Q1, selling prices will continue to come under negative pressures. Euro steel names have been weaker. Cautious reports in the alt-energy sector from Vestas [VWS.DE] and REC [REC.NO] have pressured those sectors. European bourses pushed to session highs just into 5:00EST on continued vague speculation regarding support for Greece from Germany. Trading volumes have been mixed, but weighed to the high side with good turnover in financials, and earnings related sentiment.

In individual equities: Sanofi [SAN.FR]: Reports Q4 Net €1.79B (ex items) v €1.7Be, Rev €7.36B v €7.5Be, declares dividend at €2.40/shr v €2.2/shr y/y. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Reports H2 Net loss €199M v €194Me, Rev €24.9B v €24.6Be; See recurring op prof in H1 2010. || ArcelorMittal [MT.NV]: Reports Q4 Net $1.07B v $619Me Rev $18.6B v $19.3Be. || Vestas [VWS.DE]: Reports FY Net €579M v €549Me, Rev €6.6B v €6.9Be. ||

- Speakers: German lawmakers were reportedly briefed by the German Finance Ministry to consider Greek aid beyond loan guarantees and consider the matter quickly. ***EU official commented that was considering all options in assistance for Greece, including credit guarantees, assistance may be led by the EU or individual nations
***Spain Fin Min Salgado stated that Spain was issuing more debt at this time to fight the crisis. She noted that the country's debt to GDP ratio was below Euro-Zone average. She conceded that
Spain's deficit was high but not the highest in the EU. Debt financing costs were currently lower for Spain than under previous gov't*** BOE Quarterly Inflation Report lowered its GDP forecast and stated inflation to undershoot the 2.0%. It saw Inflation peaking at 3.3% in Q1 2010 compared to 2.5% seen in Nov. The BOE noted that the increase was due to a sharp decline in GBP coupled VAT hikes. Inflation seen to trough at 0.9% in Q1 2011 (versus 1.1% prior). Credit conditions would ease gradually . - GDP growth path somewhat weaker than in Nov, but downside risks have receded. *** BoE's King commented that it was far too soon to conclude that no more Gilt purchases were needed. ***ECB's Mersch commented that consumer inflation risks have been dulled by a slow economy but cautioned that price stability forecasts could change quickly. He noted that providing liquidity in FX market incorporated moral hazard risk as it fueled investors risk appetite. ***ECB's Bini Smaghi commented in an Italian press interview that the Euro was withstanding its worst crisis. He added that Italy's debt continued to be very high and that it needed structural reforms. However he did note that Italy's deficit was within acceptable levels***German VDMA forecasted 2010 machinery output Y/Y flat compared to a decline of 8% in 2009 . It noted that 2009 Toolmakers saw their worst decline in orders since 1958. It also noted that firms were finding it harder to find needed business credit but not experiencing a credit crunch at this time*** EU official states that Greece will be discussed in tomorrow's meeting. The official noted that the situation in relation to Greece remained fluid

- Currencies: Market participants awaited further news and clarity on a potential
Greece bailout package. The European peripherals improved for a second session ahead of Thursday's meeting in Brussels to see if Greece assistance would be provided in having the government tackle its budget deficit. The EUR/USD moved above the 1.38 level in mid-morning after reports that the German lawmakers should consider Greek aid measures beyond loan guarantees. The BOE inflation report sent GBP lower after testing 1.5750 against the dollar.

- Fixed Income: Euro-zone peripheral bonds extend yesterdays short squeeze rally, spreads vs
Germany firm up significantly after press reports continue to point towards some form of German rescue for Greece. Greek 10s shed another 55bps to trade at +267bps
- Portuguese syndicated 10y said to be attracting good bidding with order twice the size of the intended €3B. Guidance revised from swaps+150bps to +140bps, pricing imminent
- Germany sold €4.2B in the third tap of the current 10y Bund, in a strong auction covered 1.7x
- Gilts go bid after the BoE's Quarterly inflation report downgrades UK growth and inflation forecasts, and Governor King concedes that it is "Far too soon to conclude that no more Gilt purchases are needed"

-Geo/political: Nigeria has moved to stem a growing power vacuum by using emergency powers in the constitution to appoint the Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, as acting President. The crisis began last November, when the elected President Yar'adua fell ill and was flown to
Saudi Arabia for treatment. Prolonged absence (approx 90 days) was furthered by a lack of clear information on Yar'adua's status (or if he was even alive). Jonathan is seen as in line with his predecessor and will be tasked with quelling religious, economic and regional violence in the oil rich West African state. ***Iran is bracing for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution tomorrow, Feb 11, 2010. Both sides have claimed to be preparing massive demonstrations of strength. The current regime, supported by the Basji has clearly labeled any dissent as motivation from international conspirators, setting the stage for a potential show down. ***China has sentenced Tan Zoren, a political activist who questioned the figures and response time of Chinese authorities following 2008 earthquakes in Sichuan to 5-years in prison. Tan was charged and found guilty of subversion. Official charges related to Tan's writing on the Tiananmen Square events of 1989, but have been widely linked to his earthquake comments. ***Federal offices in Washington DC continue to be closed (3rd straight day) due to unprecedented snow storms in the regions. Pundits have ironically latched on to the fact that a Senate Subcommittee Panel on climate warming and public health was postponed due to snow.

- In the papers: Asia Times Online reported that an explicit directive by the Chinese government has notified reserve managers to sell all risky US assets, including asset backed and corporates, and just hold on to explicitly guaranteed Treasuries and Agency debt. The article noted Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (
SAFE), nor at Chinas large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events.

- Sovereign Situation: Fitch quarterly fixed income investor survey report noted that the sovereign outlook weighed upon the improving European investor sentiment. The report also showed European fixed income investors were more bearish on the prospects for sovereign debt than for any other asset class.

- German Lawmakers ask to consider Greek aid beyond loan guarantees
China Jan Trade Balance + $14.2B v +$19.5Be
Japan Dec machine orders M/M: +20.1% v+8.0%e
- Senate Republican whip Kyl sees no vote this week on possible economic stimulus bill.
- Fed Chair Bernanke's hearing before the House Panel is postponed due to weather. FT article note that the Fed chair will set out the central bank's exit strategy in written testimony
- Portugal plans €3.0B 10 yr bond issue; guidance at 140bp over swaps

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 5th: No est v 21.0% prior
- 7:00 (IC) Iceland Jan Unemployment: No est v 8.2% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank minutes
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Intl Merchandise Trade: -C$0.1Be v -C$0.3B prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$35.8Be v -$36.4B prior
- 10:00 (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: No Est v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Final Trade Balance: No est v -$248M prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-year notes
- 12:30 (MX) Mexico to sell 1, 2, 3 & 5-year bonds
- 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $25B in 10-year notes
- 14:00 (US) Jan Monthly Budget Statement: -$70Be v -$63.5B prior



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