Major Currencies Falter as European Union Fails to Deliver Greece Decision
All major currencies are down versus the U.S. Dollar
overnight after the European Union failed to deliver a resolution to the Greece
sovereign debt problem. Yesterday, currencies led by a rally in the Euro,
pressured the Dollar on hopes that the EU and Greece
would reach an agreement regarding loan guarantees to ensure Greece would
not default on its sovereign debt.
Early trading conditions suggest that traders are growing
impatient with the EU foot-dragging, but the markets could turn quickly at even
a hint of a resolution. Traders should expect unusual volatility and sudden
changes in direction as traders jockey for position ahead of this monumental
In the EUâ€™s defense, it is most likely crossing every â€śtâ€ť
and dotting every â€śiâ€ť because of the importance of this agreement. The EU has
to assure the global investing community that it is indeed a â€śunionâ€ť.
Reports last night highlighted that over 5 billion Pounds
have been bet on the short-side of the Euro.If a viable agreement is reached today, then look for these shorts to
begin covering positions. This could trigger a massive rise in the Euro.On the other hand, a failure to announce a
pact today will most likely weaken the Euro as bullish traders will become
nervous holding on to long positions. Any hesitation may also encourage hedge
funds and bearish traders to add to their massive short-positions.
If the European Union decides to guarantee Greeceâ€™s debt
then look for trader appetite for risk to skyrocket. This should trigger strong
rallies in equities and commodities. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars
are likely to benefit the most over the short-run.
The USD CHF is likely to get hit with great selling pressure
should a pact be announced today. A move by the EU to shore up Greeceâ€™s debt
will take the pressure off the Swiss National Bank to defend its currency
against rapid appreciation and deflation.
The GBP USD is likely to rally, but gains could be limited
as traders will refocus on the U.K.
economy. In addition, some traders are still concerned that the U.K. budget deficit could trigger similar
problems the Greece
deficit is causing.
The USD JPY is the best indicator as to how investors feel
about risk and should be watched closely. The Dollar has been slowly rising
versus the Yen the past three days, but not enough to assure traders to take on
risk again. The recent action resembles cautious optimism.
If the EU fails to announce that an agreement has been
reached with Greece,
then look for traders to focus on the testimony of Fed Chairman Bernanke for
direction. Today, Bernanke will testify before Congress.The main topic he will address will be
economic stimulus. He will most likely be asked about withdrawing economic
stimulus and to offer ideas about the Fedâ€™s exit strategy.
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