Thursday February 11, 2010 - 03:50:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-Feb-2010 - 0343 GMT
The US Equities closed lower yesterday following an unexpected increase in the US Trade Deficit. The Dow (10038.38) closed 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq (2147.87) closed 0.14%
lower. The Dow recovered most of its early losses and managed to close above 10000. The US retail sales data is due which should be important for the market movement today.
The Asian Indices are trading higher today. The Nikkei is closed today, the HangSeng (20177.77) is up 1.28% and the Shanghi (2997.11) is up 0.49%. The Sensex (15922.17) closed
0.75% lower yesterday, shedding early gains. The Markets are expected to be up today follwing the Asian Indices and may rise towards 16400 during the week ahead.
Crude (74.84) is continuing its upmove and closed 74 yesterday, the third consecutive higher close. The weak dollar, Greece debt plan and cold weather supported the price rise.
Resistance is seen at 75.50 a break above which might see further rise towards 77.50 in the coming days. This week the EIA's Crude inventory data is delayed and it will be
released tomorrow (12-Feb-10).
Gold (1078.70) is continuing to remain mixed and is ranged between 1060-83 for the last three days. Weaker dollar is keeping the metal above the Support at 1060. However, the
Resistance region 1080-1100 is also looking strong as Gold is struggling to close above 1080 although 1080 is broken during the intraday trades in the last couple of days.
The Euro (1.3779) has risen from yesterday's low of 1.3676. Resistance at 1.3850 might be tested today. Dollar-Yen (89.88) is ranged and the Resistance in 90.00-50 region might
retain the downside pressure. EUro-Yen Cross has good Resistance at 124.60 a strong break above which might see 126 on the upside.
Aussie (0.8872) has risen sharply today as the jobless rate fell to a 11 month low of 5.3%. 0.8950 is the next significant Resistance seen for Aussie which might be tested
today. Swiss (1.0641) is ranged between 1.06-1.0750 for the last couple of days. While the Support at 1.06 continue to hold we might see Swiss rising once again towards 1.08 in
the coming days. The Pound (1.5633) is finding Resistance at the 8-DMA (currently at 1.5727) and is ranged between the Support at 1.5550 and the 8-DMA Resistance.
Dollar-Rupee has opened at 46.43/44 today.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries have risen yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y benchmark yields rose 5 bps each to quote at 0.87% and 3.69% respectively.
Jan Australia Labour Force
...Actual 52.7K...Previous 37.5K
13:30 GMT US Jan Retail Sales
...Expected 0.4%...Previous -0.3%
US Dec Trade Balance
...Actual $ -40.2 Bln...Previous $ -36.4 Bln
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