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Thursday February 11, 2010 - 09:29:00 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 11,
Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Core
Retail Sales tomorrow, January 12. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly
measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores
of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important
indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and
considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected
reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than
expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts
predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of
The Euro stopped only
6 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, and this confirms
the importance of 1.3805. Today, this level has double importance, with the
falling trend line from 1.4577 touching the above mentioned Fibonacci level. As
we said yesterday, with Fridayâ€™s move taking us close to the channel bottom, and
then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains
present. But we need a break of todayâ€™s resistance 1.3805 before we can say the
odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is still at
1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher
after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term
correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857
& 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3752, and breaking it would bring back
the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term..
â€¢ 1.3665: a well known previous
â€¢ 1.3582: Apr 6th
â€¢ 1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop
from 1.4025, and the falling trend line from 1.4577.
â€¢ 1.3857: Fibonacci
61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
â€¢ 1.3936: Feb 1st
After last Thursdayâ€™s sharp
drop, we can say that the Dollar-Yen has moved horizontally in the same areas
for a whole week, in a period of excitement-free trading. And as the important
support & resistance levels for the short term approaching each other,
expecting a large move to be just around the corner is a completely logical
thing. What is worth mentioning is that during last Thursdayâ€™s drop, we have
came close to the long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23, and there is no
doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the
short term, the support is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate a movement
to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around
88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is little changed at 90.04, and
breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without
reaching it, and that we are correcting last Thursdayâ€™s drop, or may be the
whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such
a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 &
â€¢ 89.75: important intraday support.
88.81: Fridayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81
â€¢ 90.04: important intraday
â€¢ 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
on currency trading see
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