European Market Update: Markets await to see if concrete details emerge of pending Greek bailout from EU Summit; Sweden's Riksbank move possible rate hike forward a bit
Thursday, February 11, 2010
European Market Update: Markets await to see if concrete details emerge of pending Greek bailout from EU Summit; Sweden's Riksbank move possible rate hike forward a bit
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Feb 5th: $433.2B v $437.1B prior - (GR) Greece Nov Unemployment Rate: 10.9% v 10.0%e - Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Maintains Repo Rate at 0.25%; as expected - (GE) Germany Jan Wholesale sales M/M: 1.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.2% prior - (FR) France 2010 Survey of Industrial Investment: +4 v -3 prior - (CZ) Czech Dec Final Industrial Output Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.1% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: 3.5% v 5.9% prior - (SP) Spain Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -3.0%e - (TU) Turkey Dec Current Account (TRY):-3.2B v -3.4Be - (SZ) Swiss Jan CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8%e - (NE) Netherland Jan CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e - (NE) Netherland Jan CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7% prior - ECB Feb Monthly Report: mirrors the Feb 4th Trichet press conference. - China's PBoC issues its Q4 monetary policy report: Reaffirms stance to maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy, to maintain "basically stable" Yuan currency at reasonable level - (SA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 3.0% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 0.1%e - (IR) Ireland Jan CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -3.9% v -4.2%e - (IR) Ireland Jan CPI EU harmonized M/M: -0.7% v -0.8; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.5%
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - In equities: European markets have entered the meat of their FY09 earnings season with the heavy hitting French names providing reports. Air France [AF.FR], reporting after the close yesterday, set a negative tone for the airline sector with its challenging guidance for 2010. In the premarket session, French auto Renault [RNO.FR] disappointed inflated guidance that followed better than expected figures from global operating partner Nissan. Alcatel-Lucent [ALU.FR] reported mixed figures, but trimmed its 2010 adj op margin guidance and traded sharply down on intense volume. French names Total [FP.FR] and EDF [EDF.FR] both traded positive on strong earnings numbers. In the mineral sector, Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] reported, and spun a more positive tone than sector giant BHP [BHP.AU] earlier in the week. UK names BT [BT.UK] and Diageo [DGE.UK] rotated lower on disappointing numbers. Despite this mixed earning sentiment, equities have traded higher throughout the European morning. In sector rotation, basic materials have driven the movement with steel and heavy industrials bouncing off yesterdays pull back. Banks, including a highlight earnings release from Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] have traded higher ahead of an expected EU summit decision on Greece. European Markets are on a three consecutive positive trend, seeking to push for four.
Individual equities: Credit Suisse CSGN.SZ: Reports Q4 Net CHF793M v CHF1.3Be, Rev CHF6.5B v CHF7.6Be; Proposes dividend of CHF2/share v CHF0.10/share y/y. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK]: Reports FY09 Net $4.9B v $5.9Be; R$44.0B v $40.7Be. || Alcatel [ALU.FR]: Reports Q4 Prelim adj op income â‚¬271M v â‚¬270Me, Rev â‚¬3.97B v â‚¬4.4Be. || Diageo [DGE.UK]: Reports H1 Op prof Â£1.5B v Â£1.7Be, Rev Â£6.9B v Â£5.4Be; H1 organic sales -2% y/y. || Total [FP.FR]: Reports Q4 Net â‚¬2.07B v â‚¬1.9Be, Rev â‚¬36.2B v â‚¬27.4Be. || Renault [RNO.FR]: Reports FY09 Net -â‚¬3.07B v -â‚¬2.5Be, Rev â‚¬33.71B v â‚¬33.7Be. ||
- Speakers: Reportedly President Obama set a year-end goal for China to allow its Yuan currency to appreciate; Obama predicted 'serious negotiations' with China on issue *** Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) stated that it expected that the Repo Rate would remain at the current low level until summer or early Autumn. This was a tad different from its Dec view that interest rates will be held at low rates through Fall 2010. The central bank noted that the economic upturn might offer scope for an earlier interest rate increase. Future rate moves depended on wage increases and SEK currency. It did note that a weak labor market would havea restraining effect on wage increases *** Spain Econ Min Campa commented that time is needed to see if current fiscal measures are enough to meet targets *** Spain Fin Min Salgado stated that the top Government priority was welfare and close second was reducing the country's deficit . She added that there were no plans to cut public sector wages at this time. On the topic of the EU Summit, she confidence that leaders will reach a common position on Greece *** German Vice Chancellor Westierwelle commented that there was no questions of not helping Greece. However he did stress that there would be no 'blank checks' issued. ***ECB Monthly Report echoed the theme from the Feb 4th ECB press conference. The statement noted that governments must consolidate their budgets and stressed that strong reforms are needed. It reiterated the view that Euro-Zone economic growth to be moderate and uneven. It reiterated view that current interest rates are appropriate and that inflation to remain subdued. To decide in March on further exit steps to special stimulus measures (in line with Trichet press conference. The ECB forecasted 2010 GDP +1.2% versus 1.0% prior view and maintain 2011 GDP growth at +1.6%. It saw 2010 CPI at 1.3% versus 1.2% prior view with 2011 forecast tweaked to 1.5% from 1.6%.The 5-year inflation outlook remained at 1.9% (Note: 2.0% is the ECB inflation target) *** Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) stated that Q4 repossessions totaled 10.2K, down 13% q/q while the full-year 2009 figure was down 5% y/y to 46K. The CML commented that 2010 forecasts of 53K repossessions and 205K cases of arrears now looked too pessimistic *** China central bank (PBOC) released its Q4 monetary report. The central bank reaffirmed its stance to maintain "moderately loose" monetary policy. It stressed that it sought to maintain "basically stable" Yuan currency at reasonable level. It warned major economies have limited room for further stimulus measures. Chinese economy faced more positive factors this year and saw economic growth maintaining a steady, fast pace. Acknowledged uneven recovery in domestic demand . The PBoC would monitor price trends and saw the possibility of price rise. It would strike a balance between keeping economic growth s while managing inflation expectations and that interest rates to play a role in its economic adjustment. To push reforms to make interest rates more market- oriented. It Acknowledged increasing risks to maintaining price stability. Uncertainties China faced include trade frictions coupled with other countries exit strategies from special stimulus measures. Global trade friction could affect external environment
- Currencies: Dealers were all focused on the EU Summit that will begin later today (delayed by 2 hours by a snow storm in Brussels). Dealers see EUR/USD consolidating between the 1.3700 to 1.3800 range for the time being until the first official statement drift out of the summit. Expectations are high for a resolution but dealers surmise that disappointed is the likely result of the summit. The key will be whether something more concrete will be communicated from the EU leaders. The 10-year Greek/German spread (and other European peripherals) will be the key on the Euro currency's direction (currently around +270bps area) - The SEK currency was firmer following the Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) rate decision to maintain its repo rate at 0.25%. The Riksbank did fine-tune its time-frame of a rate increase forward a bit and aided the SEK to strengthen against the USD and Euro. - The Chinese Yuan issue could be simmering once again as both US and Chinese officials express their opinion where the CNY should be. US President Obama reportedly set a year-end goal for China to allow its Yuan currency to appreciate. The PBoC stresses that a stable Yuan is best for China and the world.
- Fixed Income: The DMO sold 900M in 12 year linkers with reasonable results although Gilts are testing session lows as we go to press. *** Bunds offered with flows back into the perhiperals. Greek 10 year spreads worked their way towards Bunds+250bps only to retreat back to the 270bps level with continued uncertaintly and back and forth on a bailout. 5yr CDS -3bps at 350bps. *** Treasuries modestly bid with a move above 3.70% prompting some bargain hunting in London, 10s down 1bps at 3.69%.
- Energy: IEA Monthly report revised its 2010 global demand slightly higher by 170K bpd to 86.5M and forecasted the global supply seen at 85.8M bpd. It saw 2010 oil demand at 86.5M bpd +1.8% y/y from it prior 86.3M bpd. It noted that a robust IMF GDP forecast was offset by higher price assumption and weakness in OECD demand. It noted that OECD demand had likely peaked and saw growth entirely from non-OECD nations
-Geo/political: Iran has kicked off celebrations for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution by confirming that operations are proceeding to further enrich its domestic uranium supply. A massed (hundreds of thousands) pro-government rally has begun in central Iran. Reports of tear gas and isolated attacks on opposition ring leaders have been heard. Overall, the government has to date put forward a massive, and successful show of its support. In yesterday's session, Iran announced that it would be closing access to Gmail and developing its own webmail platform. *** Russian PM Putin has vehemently defended the proposed NordStream gas pipeline project. The planned system will carry Russian gas directly to German end markets by travelling under the Baltic Sea. Environmental critics have been vocal in their attacks, pointing to the possibility of damage during construction and during gas transit (reminder: Russia's new ESPO system failed on its first full week of operations).
***Notes: - EU Summit today on Greece: Hopes ride high for a Greek solution - Credit Suisse results below analyst estimates - Jan employment data from Australia boosts RBA March rate hike prospects - China Jan loan data at CNY 1.39T; in line with high expectations - Vietnam Central Bank devalues Dong by 3.3%. - Fed in talks with Money Market funds to help drain reserves.
***Looking Ahead: - (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.45 prior - (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 465Ke v 480K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.590Me v 4.602M prior - (MX) Mexico Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.0%e v -1.0% prior - (US) To sell $16B in 30-year bonds
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