Euro Flat as Traders await Details on Greece Rescue Deal
The EUR USD is trading flat to lower this morning as traders
await details on the Greece
rescue plan. Traders seem a little more confident this morning now that a pact
has been reached. This is helping to stabilize the Euro and keep it from
breaking further. Once the details of the actual decision are released, this
market should rally as fresh buying and short-covering should drive it higher.
The Euro chart pattern suggests this market is being wound
tightly. The longer it remains in a tight range the stronger the breakout move.
A rally through this weekâ€™s high at 1.3838 should put this market on path to
retrace to at least 1.4079 over the near-term.
The GBP USD is up slightly after holding on to the weekâ€™s
low at 1.5534.This market appears to be
forming a support base and like the Euro is awaiting details of the Greece rescue
plan. Shorts are likely to cover as the details of the rescue are released.
Technically, this market has a short-term target of 1.5801
to 1.5865. Gains could be limited because of the economic issues in the U.K.
Yesterday the Bank of England lowered its inflation estimate while hinting at
expanding and extending its quantitative easing program. Furthermore, just
because Greece is being
helped out does not mean the deficit issues facing the U.K. will go away. Over the
short-run, the focus may shift away from Greece
to the U.K.
The USD JPY is trading lower. This overnight weakness comes
as a surprise because the combination of the Greek rescue plan and Bernankeâ€™s
talk of raising the discount rate should have been supportive for the Dollar.
Short-term overbought conditions could be triggering the weakness.
The weaker Euro is helping to support the USD CHF. The lack
of selling pressure is giving this market a boost. The charts indicate a tight
range which indicates impending volatility. Because of the magnitude of the
situation in Greece,
traders may be waiting for the actual release of the details from the EU/Greek
pact before committing to the short-side. A stronger Euro later today should
pressure the USD CHF because it eliminates the need for the Swiss National Bank
to intervene to protect the value of its currency and its economy against
The USD CAD erased earlier gains yesterday and finished
lower for the day. This weakness spilled over into the night session driving
the Canadian Dollar higher. Higher gold and crude oil prices are the catalysts
behind the current weakness in the USD CAD.
Technically, this current break is all related to last
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal top. The main trend on the daily chart turns
down on a move through 1.0545, but losses may be limited once this pair reaches
a retracement zone at 1.0501 to 1.0436.
The AUD USD surged to the upside overnight following the
release of stronger than expected employment news. The number of new jobs
created was nearly triple the estimate. This has once again triggered the
debate over an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia now
that there is evidence the economy may be heating up.The charts indicate this market is on course
to reach a major retracement zone at .8953 to .9042.
The NZD USD is following the Australian Dollar higher.
Traders are also speculating that a pact between the EU and Greece will
calm the markets and drive up demand for higher yielding assets. Last night,
the New Zealand Dollar entered a retracement zone at .6978 to .7019. A breakout
over .7019 could trigger an acceleration to the upside to .7124 over the
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