Strengthening Gold Market Indicates EU/Greece Pact is Imminent.
The strengthening April Gold market is a strong indication
that the pact between the European Union and Greece is imminent, thereby driving
up demand for risky assets. Speculators are anticipating that the agreement to
shore up the debt in Greece
will be released shortly. This news should pressure the Dollar and underpin the
March Crude Oil is trading sharply higher overnight after
taking out a key retracement zone. Oversold conditions and the possibility of a
weaker Dollar are helping to boost this market. Traders are looking for
increased demand for risky assets to continue today. In addition, signs of an
improving economy may increase demand for energy.
Equity markets are trading higher overnight. Confidence is
returning to the markets. Traders feel that an agreement between the EU and Greece will
increase appetite for risk and are buying in anticipation of the news.
Tonightâ€™s rally is being driven by Asia and Europe.
The key to higher markets will be whether demand comes in from U.S. traders.
News of an impending agreement between the Greece and the
EU is helping to pressure March Treasury Bonds and Notes. Traders are selling
off safe haven positions in anticipation of a resolution to the Greek deficit
woes. Yesterdayâ€™s comments from Bernanke, hinting at a hike in the discount
rate is also pressuring the market. Furthermore, traders feel that yields will
rise because of the new supply of Treasury debt hitting the market.
The March Euro is trading flat to lower this morning as
traders await details on the Greece
rescue plan. Traders seem a little more confident this morning now that a pact
has been reached. This is helping to stabilize the Euro and keep it from
breaking further. Once the details of the actual decision are released, this
market should rally as fresh buying and short-covering should drive it higher.
The Euro chart pattern suggests this market is being wound
tightly. The longer it remains in a tight range the stronger the breakout move.
A rally through this weekâ€™s high at 1.3838 should put this market on path to
retrace to at least 1.4079 over the near-term.
The March British Pound is up slightly after holding on to
the weekâ€™s low at 1.5534.This market
appears to be forming a support base and like the Euro is awaiting details of
rescue plan. Shorts are likely to cover as the details of the rescue are
Technically, this market has a short-term target of 1.5801
to 1.5865. Gains could be limited because of the economic issues in the U.K.
Yesterday the Bank of England lowered its inflation estimate while hinting at
expanding and extending its quantitative easing program. Furthermore, just
because Greece is being
helped out does not mean the deficit issues facing the U.K. will go away. Over the
short-run, the focus may shift away from Greece
to the U.K.
The March Japanese Yen is trading higher. This overnight strength
comes as a surprise because the combination of the Greek rescue plan and
Bernankeâ€™s talk of raising the discount rate should have been supportive for
the Dollar. Short-term oversold conditions could be triggering the strength.
The weaker Euro is helping to pressure the March Swiss Franc.
The lack of buyers is the catalyst behind the weakness. The charts indicate a
tight range which indicates impending volatility. Because of the magnitude of
the situation in Greece,
traders may be waiting for the actual release of the details from the EU/Greek
pact before committing to the short-side. A stronger Euro later today should support
the Swiss Franc because it eliminates the need for the Swiss National Bank to
intervene to protect the value of its currency and its economy against
The March Canadian Dollar erased earlier losses yesterday
and finished higher for the day. This strength spilled over into the night
session driving the Canadian Dollar higher. Higher gold and crude oil prices
are the catalysts behind the current strength and could lead to a surge to the
Technically, this current rally is all related to last
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom The main trend on the daily chart turns up
on a move through .9483, but gains may be limited once this contract reaches a
retracement zone at .9553 to .9607.
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