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Monday February 15, 2010 - 10:28:13 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/02/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis February 15,
Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW
European traders look forward to the publication of
the German ZEW Economic Sentiment tomorrow, February 15. The German Zentrum fÃ¼r
EuropÃ¤ische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment determines the
sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while
below 0 indicates pessimism.
It's a leading indicator of business conditions.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors
A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a decline from the past
reading to a reading of 42.50.
The Euro broke the support 1.3662 and fell strongly as we
expected, reaching the first suggested target 1.3582 successfully, and stopping
only 5 pips before the second target 1.3525, Which confirmed a continuation of
the downtrend, and an inability of using any chance to create a notable
correction. And today, the continuation of the trend is expected, as we are
still trading below the falling trend line that is drawn on the attached chart.
Short term support is are 1.3572 and breaking it would indicate that we have
lived a short correction after Fridayâ€™s fall, and we are to continue falling
today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance
1.3675, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the
ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836.
In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important
not just for the short term, but for the medium term as
â€¢ 1.3572: Apr 6th high.
â€¢ 1.3525: May 14th
â€¢ 1.3422: important line on intraday
â€¢ 1.3675: last Wednesdayâ€™s low.
1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
â€¢ 1.3836: Fibonacci
61.8% for the last drop from
For another day,
Dollar-Yen frustrated our hopes for a big move, and stayed another day trading
in very tight ranges, and very boring ones! We have not had our major move until
now. But this very limited activity should come to an end soon, and a trend will
be born, which will bring back some excitement to this pair, after a very boring
week. Thus, we will await a break of the support or resistance of the day, and
in case we get one, we expect to see a sizeable move in the direction of the
break. Our eyes will be on the support 89.83, and breaking it would enhance
chances of a drop in the first of this week, targeting 89.22, and then the all
important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance is at
90.22, and breaking it would target 91.14, and then what could be the most
important resistance for short term 91.76.
the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
â€¢ 89.22: last Fridayâ€™s
â€¢ 88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to
â€¢ 90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
91.26 to 88.53.
â€¢ 91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
on currency trading see
Disclaimer:Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of
your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject
to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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