Thursday March 3, 2005 - 18:23:34 GMT
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ALL EYES ON NON-FARM TOMORROW
To start the day off the ECB left rates unchanged at2.0% which was widely expected and the comments going forward were pretty benign for the rise over the past month. Overall a strong ISM non-manufacturing report did little to stimulate to Dollar to any great lengths. The headline at 59.8 was in line with expectations, the details on balance even stronger. The key new orders and employment indicators were both solid. New orders rose to 61.6 from 60.5 and the employment index jumped from 52.2 to 59.6 (a cycle high). The rest of the sub-components were also positive for the USD. The sharp rise in employment is particularly USD positive given this is yet another partial indicator that points to a solid payrolls report tomorrow. Euro maintained a tight range toward the afternoon much in part to tomorrow’s release of Non-Farm payrolls that are expected to be +225K by most of the market. Feels like the market has priced in this number or slightly better (with the Dollar strength) and the real risk is to the downside if this number disappoints.
Overnight the Euro has put in a high at 1.3165/68 and come off slowly for the day to lows of 1.3111/14. Euro is below its 120 and 200 hr moving averages on a 60 minute chart. The RSI is waning with a reading of 42.81. There is support seen at 1.3095/05 and resistance at 1.3170/80.
GAIN AN EDGE
We look to sell a Euro rally toward 1.3165/75 with a stop above 1.3205 and a take profit of 1.3085/90
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