Monday February 15, 2010 - 11:55:21 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 15-Feb-2010 - 1153 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0762/66...Might test the 1.0700-1.0680 Support region
R: 1.0830 / 1.0881 / 1.0940
S: 1.0700-1.0680 / 1.0630-00 / 1.0540
Swiss is continuing to trade below 1.08. Failure to see a break above 1.08 has now increased the chances of a downmov towards 1.0700-1.0680, which is the immediate Support region seen. However, the current upside momentum is expected to continue and we might see a bounce back once again towards 1.0800 from 1.0700-1.0680 Support region. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 1.0705
On the upside the 100-Week-MA (1.0830) is the significant Resistance seen. A break above this 100-Week-MA might trigger further rise towards 1.0940 which is the 50% retracement level of the fall from 1.1965 (12-Mar-09) to 1.0075 (16-Nov-09). Note 1.0881 is the 21-Month-MA which might provide some Resistance initially for the rise towards 1.0940
GBP-USD @ 1.5693/96...Important Resistance zone 1.5757-62
R: 1.5757-62 / 1.5792 / 1.5872
S: 1.5660-50 / 1.5545 / 1.5435
The Cable continued to trade within the range mentioned in the morning. Having dipped towards 1.5611 intra-day, the pair has restarted to move towards the upper end of the range. There's immediate Resistance in the region 1.5690-1.5708 which could lead to a test of the Resistance region 1.5757-62 [13-DMA (1.5757) and Projected Max High (1.5762)]. This may not break and the pair may thereafter come down towards 1.56 over the next couple of sessions if the range on the pair continues to be honoured.
The Projected Max High and Low for the day is at 1.5762 and 1.5545 respectively. The US being shut today because of President's Day might see thinner volumes and probably an honour of the range.
AUD-USD @ 0.8903/07...Might test the Resistance in 0.8930-55 region
R: 0.8930-55 / 0.9023 / 0.9050
S: 0.8950 / 0.8800-0.8780 / 0.8735
Aussie is contiued to trade below 0.89 in a narrow range of 0.8850-0.89. As mentioned earlier Resistance is seen in 0.8930-55 region which we expect to hold and keep the pair pressured on the downside. Note 0.8953 is the 50% Retracement levle of the fall from 0.9327 (14-Jan-10) to 0.8578 (05-Feb-10). Also note that the projected Max-High for the day is 0.8955.
On the downside immediate Support is seen at 0.8750 a break below which might test the next Support seen in 0.8800-0.8780 region. A break and further downmove below 0.8780 might revisit the 200-DMA (currently at 0.8622). Note that this 200-DMA is a very significant Support level to watch for on the downside.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.8930, SL 0.9020, TP Open.
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